Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Guelph Guardians Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Car Stealer 1-11, playoff odds down 7.2 to 20%

9 points 4 8-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Car Stealer 11 Guardians 1	-6.9		+5.1		-0.6
Knights 1 Gunners 3	-0.5				-0.0
Rasputins 3 Black Flag 4	+0.3		+0.5
Seals 3 Camels 2	-0.2		-0.4
Lions 4 Red Wings 2			+0.2
Pharaohs 10 Owls 1			-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Colts vs Car Stealer	+0.4+0.0-0.2*-0.5-0.5-0.3		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5
Oompa Loompa vs Stabbers	-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.0-0.1+0.3				-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
Narwhals vs Friars			-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.8*+0.4+0.4		+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Owls vs Juggernauts			+0.1+0.5+0.5+0.4+0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Guardians finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Tier II		Count

59	-63						In		91.5	%	100															No		117	*
58		24	2		-	1	In		46.7		67	33														No		15	*
57		23	2		-	2	In		61.5		85	15														No		39	*
56		23	3		-	1	In		35.6		71	29														No		90	*
55		22	3		-	2	In		24.1		67	32	1													No		249	*
54		22	4		-	1	In		11.7		55	40	5	0												No		452	*
53		21	4		-	2	In		4.7		41	47	11	1												No		975	*
52		21	5		-	1	In		1.6		26	46	24	5	0											No		1,736	*
51		20	5		-	2	In		0.4		13	42	33	10	1	0										No		3,376	*
50		20	6		-	1	In		0.0		7	28	39	21	5	1	0									No		5,591	*
49		19	6		-	2	In		No		2	16	34	32	12	2	0	0								No		9,690	*
48		19	7		-	1	In		No		0	6	24	35	25	9	1	0								No		14,347	*
47		18	7		-	2	99.9	%	No		0	2	11	28	33	19	6	1	0							No		21,759	*
46		18	8		-	1	99.4		No		0	0	3	14	30	31	16	4	1	0						No		29,749	*
45		17	8		-	2	96.6		No			0	1	5	18	32	28	13	3	0	0					No		41,968	*
44		17	9		-	1	86.3		No		0	0	0	1	6	20	32	26	11	2	0	0				No		53,186	*
43		16	9		-	2	65.8		No				0	0	2	8	23	33	24	9	1	0				No		67,490	*
42		16	10		-	1	45.2		No					0	0	3	13	29	32	18	4	0	0			No		43,406
		15	9		-	3	30.8		No					0	0	1	7	23	34	25	9	1	0			No		35,217	*
41		15	10		-	2	16.8		No					0	0	0	3	14	30	33	17	4	0	0		No		91,878	*
40		15	11		-	1	5.9		No							0	1	5	20	34	29	10	1	0		No		60,732	*
		14	10		-	3	3.2		No							0	0	3	14	33	33	14	2	0	0	No		38,113
39		14	11		-	2	0.8		No								0	1	6	23	37	25	7	1	0	0.0	%	81,529	*
		15	12		-	0	2.0		No							0	0	2	12	30	35	18	4	0	0	0.0		25,695
38		14	12		-	1	0.2		No								0	0	3	15	34	33	13	2	0	0.2		56,796
		13	11		-	3	0.1		No								0	0	1	9	29	37	19	3	0	0.6		49,237	*
37		13	12		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	4	21	38	28	8	1	2.6		59,373
		14	13		-	0	0.0		No									0	0	5	22	38	27	8	1	2.8		47,585	*
36		13	13		-	1	Out		No										0	2	12	33	36	15	2	9.5		59,726	*
		12	12		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	1	9	30	39	19	3	13.8		38,036
35		12	13		-	2	Out		No										0	0	4	22	39	28	6	28.0		50,414
		13	14		-	0	Out		No										0	0	5	22	39	27	6	28.3		40,571	*
34		12	14		-	1	Out		No											0	2	13	36	37	12	48.3		46,907	*
		11	13		-	3	Out		No										0	0	1	10	33	40	15	57.5		29,403
33		11	14		-	2	Out		No											0	0	6	26	44	23	74.0		36,846
		12	15		-	0	Out		No											0	1	6	27	44	23	72.5		29,109	*
32		11	15		-	1	Out		No											0	0	3	19	45	32	85.8		28,336
		10	14		-	3	Out		No												0	2	15	44	40	91.2		24,132	*
31		10	15		-	2	Out		No												0	1	10	41	48	95.5		41,316	*
30		10	16		-	1	Out		No												0	0	5	33	61	98.7		30,272	*
29		9	16		-	2	Out		No													0	3	25	72	99.6		21,984	*
28		9	17		-	1	Out		No													0	1	18	81	99.8		14,771	*
27		8	17		-	2	Out		No														0	12	88	100.0		10,171	*
26		8	18		-	1	Out		No														0	7	93	Yes		5,988	*
25		7	18		-	2	Out		No															5	95	Yes		3,813	*
24		7	19		-	1	Out		No														0	3	97	Yes		2,165	*
23		6	19		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		1,146	*
22		6	20		-	1	Out		No															0	100	Yes		594	*
21		5	20		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		285	*
9	-20						Out		No																100	Yes		345	*

Total:							20.0	%	0.0	%	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	6	8	10	12	14	14	13	10	22.4	%	1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Car Stealer 11 Guardians 1	+1.2
Pharaohs 10 Owls 1	-0.0
Knights 1 Gunners 3	+0.0
Lions 4 Red Wings 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Narwhals vs Friars	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Owls vs Juggernauts	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Creamless Oreos vs Hellhounds	-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

63		27	0		-	0	91	9
59	-61						100
58		24	2		-	1	47	40	7		7
57		23	2		-	2	62	36		3
56		23	3		-	1	36	50	12	1	1
55		22	3		-	2	24	41	29	5	1
54		22	4		-	1	12	37	33	14	3	0	0
53		21	4		-	2	5	21	37	24	11	3	0
52		21	5		-	1	2	10	25	31	20	9	2	0	0
51		20	5		-	2	0	3	13	27	28	19	7	2	0	0
50		20	6		-	1	0	1	4	14	25	27	19	8	2	0	0
49		19	6		-	2		0	1	5	13	22	26	20	9	3	1	0	0
48		19	7		-	1			0	1	3	10	19	26	21	13	5	2	0	0
47		18	7		-	2				0	0	2	7	16	23	23	16	7	3	1	0	0
46		18	8		-	1					0	0	1	4	11	20	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
45		17	8		-	2						0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
44		17	9		-	1							0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
43		16	9		-	2									0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	18	10	4	1	0	0
42		16	10		-	1											0	0	1	4	11	21	25	21	12	4	1	0	0
		15	9		-	3												0	0	1	5	13	22	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
41		15	10		-	2												0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
40		15	11		-	1													0	0	0	1	4	12	21	26	21	11	3	1	0	0
		14	10		-	3														0	0	0	2	6	15	24	26	17	7	2	0	0
39		14	11		-	2															0	0	0	1	6	15	24	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
		15	12		-	0															0	0	1	4	11	21	27	21	11	4	1	0	0
38		14	12		-	1																0	0	0	2	7	17	26	26	16	6	1	0	0	0
		13	11		-	3																	0	0	1	3	11	21	27	22	11	3	1	0
37		13	12		-	2																	0	0	0	1	4	12	24	28	20	9	2	0	0	0
36		13	13		-	1																		0	0	0	1	5	15	26	27	17	7	1	0	0
		12	12		-	3																			0	0	0	3	10	22	28	23	11	3	0	0
35		12	13		-	2																				0	0	1	4	13	25	29	19	7	1	0
		13	14		-	0																				0	0	1	5	14	25	28	19	8	2	0
34		12	14		-	1																					0	0	1	6	17	29	27	15	4	0
		11	13		-	3																						0	1	3	12	25	30	20	7	1
33		11	14		-	2																						0	0	1	6	18	30	28	13	2
		12	15		-	0																						0	0	2	7	19	30	27	13	2
32		11	15		-	1																							0	0	2	9	24	34	24	7
31		10	15		-	2																							0	0	1	4	15	32	35	15
30		10	16		-	1																								0	0	1	7	24	41	26
29		9	16		-	2																									0	0	3	16	41	39
28		9	17		-	1																									0	0	1	9	36	54
27		8	17		-	2																										0	0	4	29	66
26		8	18		-	1																											0	2	20	78
25		7	18		-	2																											0	1	14	85
24		7	19		-	1																												0	9	91
23		6	19		-	2																												0	5	95
22		6	20		-	1																													2	98
21		5	20		-	2																													1	99
20		5	21		-	1																													1	99
9	-19																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4