Angry Beavers Playoff Chances 2019-2019 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 3.9 to 27.3%

11 points 5 4-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 7/14	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Knights 5 Kodiaks 3	-3.0		-0.1
Piranhas 3 Spartans 5	-3.0		-0.1
Raiders 3 Vikings 5	+2.3		+0.0
Bulldogs 3 Chaos C3 4	-0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vikings vs Angry Beavers	-15.2-9.2-9.2+14.4+14.4+14.4		-0.8-0.4-0.4+0.8+0.8+0.8
Rebels vs Raiders	+2.8-1.2-1.1-3.0-2.9-2.1		+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 7/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Rebels vs Angry Beavers	-15.3-9.0-9.0+13.5+13.3+14.6		-0.8-0.3-0.3+0.6+0.6+0.7
Piranhas vs Raiders	+3.3-0.5-0.6-2.7-2.8-2.8		+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Spartans vs Chaos C3	+0.6-1.3-1.3-4.6-4.5+0.3		+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.0
Knights vs Bulldogs	-1.9-2.1-2.0+0.7+0.8+2.1		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0
Kodiaks vs Vikings	+0.3-0.1+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3		+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Angry Beavers finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

19	4	0		-	0	100.0	%	24	55	19	2	0	0					1,047,268
18	3	0		-	1	87.4		0	13	39	35	11	1					564,842
17	3	1		-	0	73.1		0	6	27	40	22	4	0				3,609,433
	2	0		-	2	48.3			0	11	36	38	13	0				114,756
16	2	1		-	1	11.8				1	11	37	44	7	0			1,468,129
	1	0		-	3	4.7				0	4	28	52	15	1			10,380
15	2	2		-	0	3.1				0	3	20	48	27	1			4,682,194
	1	1		-	2	0.4					0	10	43	43	4			199,391
	0	0		-	4	Out						6	37	49	8			331
14	1	2		-	1	0.0					0	1	20	54	24			1,267,111
	0	1		-	3	Out						0	11	51	37			8,759
13	1	3		-	0	Out						0	5	54	41			2,699,561
	0	2		-	2	Out							1	43	56			86,113
12	0	3		-	1	Out								9	82	10		366,661
11	0	4		-	0	Out								6	83	11	0	588,211

Total:						27.3	%	2	5	9	12	15	21	22	14	1	0	16,713,140

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 7/14	100.0*	Lottery seed
Piranhas 3 Spartans 5	+0.1
Knights 5 Kodiaks 3	+0.1
Raiders 3 Vikings 5	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vikings vs Angry Beavers	+0.8+0.4+0.4-0.8-0.8-0.8
Rebels vs Raiders	-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 7/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rebels vs Angry Beavers	+0.8+0.3+0.3-0.6-0.6-0.7
Piranhas vs Raiders	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Spartans vs Chaos C3	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2-0.0
Kodiaks vs Vikings	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Knights vs Bulldogs	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

19	4	0		-	0	24	55	19	2	0	0
18	3	0		-	1	0	13	39	35	11	1
17	3	1		-	0	0	6	27	40	22	4	0
	2	0		-	2		1	11	36	38	13	0
16	2	1		-	1			1	11	37	44	7	0
	1	0		-	3			0	4	28	52	15	1
15	2	2		-	0			0	3	20	48	27	1
	1	1		-	2				0	10	43	43	4
	0	0		-	4					6	37	49	8
14	1	2		-	1				0	1	20	55	24
	0	1		-	3					0	11	51	37
13	1	3		-	0					0	5	54	41
	0	2		-	2						1	43	56
12	0	3		-	1							9	82	10
11	0	4		-	0							6	83	11	0

Total:						2	5	9	12	15	21	22	14	1	0