Citizen Soldiers Playoff Chances 2012 50/50

Lost to RNAT 5-15, playoff odds down 4.9 to 3.8%

4-10-0 .286

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the CS finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

11		7	-	0	-	0	96.9	%				3	5	2	54	33	3	0					32,622
10	.5	6	-	0	-	1	82.7					0	1	2	32	48	16	1	0				19,091
10		6	-	1	-	0	51.2					0	0	0	10	40	37	11	1	0			222,044
		5	-	0	-	2	51.8						0	0	11	41	36	12	1	0			4,804
9	.5	5	-	1	-	1	15.0						0	0	1	14	36	35	12	1	0		113,849
		4	-	0	-	3	15.2								1	14	37	36	11	1			693
9		5	-	2	-	0	3.3							0	0	3	19	41	31	6	0		666,049
		4	-	1	-	2	2.7								0	3	17	41	33	6	0		23,930
		3	-	0	-	4	4.9									5	25	41	26	3			61
8	.5	4	-	3	-	1	0.0									0	0	7	36	44	12	0	1,108,734
		4	-	2	-	1	0.1									0	3	17	45	30	5	0	284,547
		3	-	1	-	3	0.1									0	3	18	44	30	5		2,722
		2	-	0	-	5	Out												67	33			3
8		3	-	2	-	2	0.0									0	0	6	35	45	13	0	48,158
		2	-	1	-	4	Out											6	36	45	12		161
7	.5	3	-	3	-	1	Out										0	1	12	47	38	3	378,049
		2	-	2	-	3	Out											1	12	47	39	2	4,102
		1	-	1	-	5	Out													25	75		4
7		3	-	4	-	0	Out										0	0	5	36	50	8	1,109,398
		2	-	4	-	2	Out											0	1	17	64	19	283,463
		2	-	3	-	2	Out											0	5	36	50	9	48,299
		1	-	2	-	4	Out												3	29	55	12	173
6	.5	2	-	5	-	1	Out												0	8	54	37	664,459
		1	-	3	-	3	Out												1	17	64	19	2,771
6		1	-	5	-	2	Out												0	2	47	51	112,935
		1	-	4	-	2	Out												0	8	55	37	24,123
		0	-	3	-	4	Out													10	47	43	51
5	.5	0	-	4	-	3	Out													2	48	50	659
5		1	-	6	-	0	Out													1	27	72	222,221
		0	-	5	-	2	Out													0	27	72	4,805
4	.5	0	-	6	-	1	Out													0	21	79	18,856
4		0	-	7	-	0	Out														8	92	32,323

Total:							3.8	%				0	0	0	1	3	5	9	16	25	29	13	5,434,159

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

11		7	-	0	-	0				3	5	2	54	33	3	0
10	.5	6	-	0	-	1				0	1	2	32	48	16	1	0
10		6	-	1	-	0				0	0	0	10	40	36	12	1	0
		5	-	0	-	2					0	0	11	41	35	12	1	0
9	.5	5	-	1	-	1					0	0	1	14	36	36	12	1	0
		4	-	0	-	3							1	14	36	37	11	1
9		5	-	2	-	0						0	0	3	19	41	31	6	0
		4	-	1	-	2							0	3	17	41	33	6	0
		3	-	0	-	4								5	25	41	26	3
8	.5	4	-	3	-	1								0	0	7	36	44	12	0
		4	-	2	-	1								0	3	18	45	30	5	0
		3	-	1	-	3								0	3	18	44	30	5
		2	-	0	-	5											67	33
8		3	-	2	-	2								0	0	6	35	45	13	0
		2	-	1	-	4										6	36	45	12
7	.5	3	-	3	-	1									0	1	12	47	38	3
		2	-	2	-	3										1	12	47	39	2
		1	-	1	-	5												25	75
7		3	-	4	-	0									0	0	5	36	50	8
		2	-	4	-	2										0	1	17	64	19
		2	-	3	-	2										0	5	36	50	9
		1	-	2	-	4											3	29	55	12
6	.5	2	-	5	-	1											0	8	54	37
		1	-	3	-	3											1	17	64	19
6		1	-	5	-	2											0	2	47	51
		1	-	4	-	2											0	8	55	37
		0	-	3	-	4												10	47	43
5	.5	0	-	4	-	3												2	48	50
5		1	-	6	-	0												1	27	72
		0	-	5	-	2												0	27	72
4	.5	0	-	6	-	1												0	21	79
4		0	-	7	-	0													8	92

Total:										0	0	0	1	3	5	9	16	25	29	13