Alan's Wolf Pack Playoff Chances 2012

Lost to JESS 10-11, playoff odds down 0.8 to 98.9%

9-5-0 .643

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the AWP finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

16		7	-	0	-	0	In		5	35		60											118,987
15	.5	6	-	0	-	1	In		1	14		85											62,749
15		6	-	1	-	0	In		0	7	0	93											643,710
		5	-	0	-	2	In		0	8		92											14,048
14	.5	5	-	1	-	1	In		0	2	0	98			0								278,470
14		5	-	2	-	0	In		0	1	0	97	1		1								1,346,431
		4	-	0	-	2	In			2		98											1,684
13	.5	4	-	2	-	1	In		0	0	0	93	2	0	5	0							467,900
		4	-	1	-	1	In		0	1	0	97	0		1								49,846
		3	-	1	-	3	In			0		94	3		3								4,570
		3	-	0	-	3	In					99			1								115
13		4	-	3	-	0	100.0	%		0	0	77	9	0	14	0	0						1,425,485
		3	-	2	-	2	In			0	0	78	7	0	15	0							64,644
		2	-	1	-	4	In					75	6		19								259
		2	-	0	-	4	In					100											4
12	.5	3	-	3	-	1	100.0			0	0	55	16	0	27	1	0						384,041
		2	-	2	-	3	In					55	17	0	26	1							4,364
		1	-	1	-	5	In					67	33										3
12		3	-	4	-	0	99.8			0	0	26	20	2	44	8	0	0					832,874
		2	-	3	-	2	99.8				0	26	19	2	45	8	0						38,552
		1	-	2	-	4	In					25	15	1	52	7							138
11	.5	2	-	4	-	1	98.7					8	17	3	51	19	1	0					163,756
		1	-	3	-	3	99.2					8	19	4	50	19	1						1,697
		0	-	2	-	5	In								50	50							2
11		2	-	5	-	0	90.5					1	6	4	41	38	9	0					270,506
		1	-	4	-	2	90.9					1	6	4	40	39	9	0					10,749
		0	-	3	-	4	95.8						4	13	33	46	4						24
10	.5	1	-	5	-	1	76.7					0	2	2	23	49	22	1					34,421
		0	-	4	-	3	75.7						2	0	25	48	23	1					230
10		1	-	6	-	0	49.6					0	0	1	8	41	46	5	0				45,073
		0	-	5	-	2	47.8						0	0	7	40	47	5					1,103
9	.5	0	-	6	-	1	27.0							0	2	25	61	11	0				2,916
9		0	-	7	-	0	8.3							0	0	8	53	35	4	0			4,265

Total:							98.9	%	0	2	0	70	7	1	15	4	1	0	0	0			6,273,616

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

16		7	-	0	-	0	5	35		60
15	.5	6	-	0	-	1	1	14		85
15		6	-	1	-	0	0	7	0	93
		5	-	0	-	2	0	8		92
14	.5	5	-	1	-	1	0	2	0	98			0
14		5	-	2	-	0	0	1	0	97	1		1
		4	-	0	-	2		2		98
13	.5	4	-	2	-	1	0	0	0	93	2	0	5	0
		4	-	1	-	1	0	1	0	97	0		1
		3	-	1	-	3		0		94	3		3
		3	-	0	-	3				99			1
13		4	-	3	-	0		0	0	77	9	0	14	0	0
		3	-	2	-	2		0	0	78	7	0	15	0
		2	-	1	-	4				75	6		19
		2	-	0	-	4				100
12	.5	3	-	3	-	1		0	0	55	16	0	27	1	0
		2	-	2	-	3				55	17	0	26	1
		1	-	1	-	5				67	33
12		3	-	4	-	0		0	0	26	20	2	44	8	0
		2	-	3	-	2			0	26	19	2	45	8	0
		1	-	2	-	4				25	15	1	52	7
11	.5	2	-	4	-	1				8	17	3	51	19	1	0
		1	-	3	-	3				8	19	4	50	19	1
		0	-	2	-	5							50	50
11		2	-	5	-	0				1	6	4	41	38	9	0
		1	-	4	-	2				1	6	4	40	39	9	0
		0	-	3	-	4					4	13	33	46	4
10	.5	1	-	5	-	1				0	2	2	23	49	23	0
		0	-	4	-	3					2	0	25	48	24	0
10		1	-	6	-	0				0	0	1	8	41	47	4	0
		0	-	5	-	2					0	0	7	40	48	4
9	.5	0	-	6	-	1						0	2	25	63	10	0
9		0	-	7	-	0						0	0	8	54	34	4	0

Total:							0	2	0	70	7	1	15	4	1	0	0	0