Yo11 Playoff Chances 2011

Lost to Melaniacs 45-49, playoff odds down 29.4 to 39.1%

5-3-1 .611

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Yo11 45 Melaniacs 49	-16.5		-1.0
Pokes 60 Hullabarbaloos 65	-1.2		-0.0
Colo. Connectio 63 Neighbor 76	-0.9
Orcas 50 Fighting Baculu 57	-0.6		-0.0
Covingtron 5000 59 bluebirds 49	+0.4
Legion of Doom 68 Hollywood Dogs 52	+0.1		+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Yo11 vs Hullabarbaloos	+19.5-1.1-16.4		+1.1-0.1-0.9
Colo. Connectio vs bluebirds	-1.7+1.2+3.3		-0.0+0.1+0.1
Orcas vs Neighbor	+4.1+3.3-0.7		+0.2+0.2-0.0
Hollywood Dogs vs Melaniacs	+1.4-2.8-0.9		+0.0-0.2-0.0
Throwbacks vs Pokes	+0.2*+0.1-0.1
Legion of Doom vs Fighting Baculu			+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Yo11 finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

11	.5	6	-	0	-	0	In		88	12	0												183,106
11		5	-	0	-	1	In		52	37	10	1											30,705
10	.5	5	-	1	-	0	99.7	%	18	45	31	6	0	0									816,424
		4	-	0	-	2	99.8		20	46	28	6	0										2,066
10		4	-	1	-	1	84.2		3	16	34	31	13	2	0								111,557
		3	-	0	-	3	88.6		4	21	40	23	11										70
9	.5	4	-	2	-	0	47.4		0	2	12	34	36	14	2	0							1,419,822
		3	-	1	-	2	49.8		0	2	13	34	35	14	2	0							6,071
		2	-	0	-	4	50.0					50	50										2
9		3	-	2	-	1	11.5		0	0	2	10	25	36	23	4	0						149,827
		2	-	1	-	3	9.4				1	8	30	36	21	4							159
8	.5	3	-	3	-	0	0.5				0	1	7	31	46	15	1	0					1,198,468
		2	-	2	-	2	0.6					1	8	32	44	15	1						5,847
		1	-	1	-	4	Out							100									2
8		2	-	3	-	1	0.1				0	0	1	10	38	44	7	0	0				90,998
		1	-	2	-	3	Out						3	14	31	46	6						124
7	.5	2	-	4	-	0	Out						0	1	17	51	27	3	0				508,935
		1	-	3	-	2	Out							1	17	50	29	4	0				2,316
7		1	-	4	-	1	Out							0	5	40	42	12	1	0			24,619
		0	-	3	-	3	Out									33	40	20	7				15
6	.5	1	-	5	-	0	Out								0	12	42	36	9	1	0		101,879
		0	-	4	-	2	Out									12	41	39	8				288
6		0	-	5	-	1	Out									3	25	43	25	4			2,454
5	.5	0	-	6	-	0	Out									0	5	27	45	22	2		8,440

Total:							39.1	%	7	10	10	13	14	14	16	11	4	1	0	0	0		4,664,194

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 11/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Yo11 45 Melaniacs 49	+1.0
Pokes 60 Hullabarbaloos 65	+0.0
Orcas 50 Fighting Baculu 57	+0.0
Legion of Doom 68 Hollywood Dogs 52	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Yo11 vs Hullabarbaloos	-1.1+0.1+0.9
Orcas vs Neighbor	-0.2-0.2+0.0
Hollywood Dogs vs Melaniacs	-0.0+0.2+0.0
Colo. Connectio vs bluebirds	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Legion of Doom vs Fighting Baculu	-0.0+0.1+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

11	.5	6	-	0	-	0	88	12	0
11		5	-	0	-	1	52	37	10	1
10	.5	5	-	1	-	0	18	45	31	6	0	0
		4	-	0	-	2	20	46	28	6	0
10		4	-	1	-	1	3	16	34	31	13	2	0
		3	-	0	-	3	4	21	40	23	11
9	.5	4	-	2	-	0	0	2	12	34	36	14	2	0
		3	-	1	-	2	0	2	13	34	35	14	2	0
		2	-	0	-	4				50	50
9		3	-	2	-	1	0	0	2	10	25	36	23	4	0
		2	-	1	-	3			1	8	30	36	21	4
8	.5	3	-	3	-	0			0	1	7	31	46	15	1	0
		2	-	2	-	2				1	8	32	44	15	1
		1	-	1	-	4						100
8		2	-	3	-	1			0	0	1	10	38	44	7	0	0
		1	-	2	-	3					3	14	31	46	6
7	.5	2	-	4	-	0					0	1	17	51	27	3	0
		1	-	3	-	2						1	17	50	29	4	0
7		1	-	4	-	1						0	5	40	42	12	1	0
		0	-	3	-	3								33	40	20	7
6	.5	1	-	5	-	0							0	12	42	36	9	1	0
		0	-	4	-	2								12	41	39	8
6		0	-	5	-	1								3	25	43	25	4
5	.5	0	-	6	-	0								0	5	27	45	22	2

Total:							7	10	10	13	14	14	16	11	4	1	0	0	0