Hollywood Dogs Playoff Chances 2011

Lost to Legion of Doom 52-68, playoff odds down 23.1 to 12.5%

5-4-0 .556

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Legion of Doom 68 Hollywood Dogs 52	-15.1		-1.0
Colo. Connectio 63 Neighbor 76	-0.9		-0.0
Pokes 60 Hullabarbaloos 65	-0.7
Covingtron 5000 59 bluebirds 49	+0.6		+0.1
Orcas 50 Fighting Baculu 57	-0.5		-0.0
Yo11 45 Melaniacs 49	+0.4		+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hollywood Dogs vs Melaniacs	+11.4*-0.1-8.1		+1.0+0.2-0.7
Colo. Connectio vs bluebirds	-0.6+1.0+1.1		+0.0+0.1-0.0
Orcas vs Neighbor	+1.5+0.6-0.2		+0.1+0.0-0.0
Legion of Doom vs Fighting Baculu	-0.1+1.0*+0.0
Throwbacks vs Pokes	+0.2*+0.2-0.2		+0.1+0.1-0.1
Yo11 vs Hullabarbaloos	+0.2*+0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Hollywood Dogs finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

11		6	-	0	-	0	100.0	%	48	41	10	1	0										72,785
10	.5	5	-	0	-	1	99.6		20	44	30	6	0										14,255
10		5	-	1	-	0	82.4		3	16	33	31	15	2	0	0							439,433
		4	-	0	-	2	89.4		3	19	37	31	10	1									1,143
9	.5	4	-	1	-	1	50.2		0	2	13	35	35	13	2	0							70,127
		3	-	0	-	3	37.5				8	29	44	15	2	2							48
9		4	-	2	-	0	9.0		0	0	1	8	26	33	25	7	0	0					1,076,100
		3	-	1	-	2	9.6			0	1	8	28	35	23	5	0						4,477
8	.5	3	-	2	-	1	0.6				0	1	7	28	42	21	2	0					135,404
		2	-	1	-	3	Out						3	23	49	21	4						127
8		3	-	3	-	0	0.0				0	0	0	6	25	44	23	2	0				1,356,626
		2	-	2	-	2	0.0					0	0	5	26	47	20	2					6,238
		1	-	1	-	4	Out								33	33	33						3
7	.5	2	-	3	-	1	Out						0	1	10	44	38	7	0	0			125,367
		1	-	2	-	3	Out							1	9	35	50	6					139
7		2	-	4	-	0	Out						0	0	1	15	50	32	2	0			925,547
		1	-	3	-	2	Out							0	1	17	50	30	2	0			3,838
6	.5	1	-	4	-	1	Out								0	5	36	46	11	1			55,973
		0	-	3	-	3	Out									7	54	39					28
6		1	-	5	-	0	Out								0	1	16	58	24	3	0		321,254
		0	-	4	-	2	Out									1	12	57	27	4			800
5	.5	0	-	5	-	1	Out									0	2	29	49	19	0		9,527
5		0	-	6	-	0	Out										1	18	52	28	1	0	44,955

Total:							12.5	%	1	2	4	5	8	11	15	19	19	12	3	0	0	0	4,664,194

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 11/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Legion of Doom 68 Hollywood Dogs 52	+1.0
Covingtron 5000 59 bluebirds 49	-0.1
Colo. Connectio 63 Neighbor 76	+0.0
Orcas 50 Fighting Baculu 57	+0.0
Yo11 45 Melaniacs 49	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hollywood Dogs vs Melaniacs	-1.0-0.2+0.7
Throwbacks vs Pokes	-0.1-0.1+0.1
Orcas vs Neighbor	-0.1-0.0+0.0
Colo. Connectio vs bluebirds	-0.0-0.1+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

11		6	-	0	-	0	48	41	10	1	0
10	.5	5	-	0	-	1	20	44	30	6	0
10		5	-	1	-	0	3	16	33	31	15	2	0	0
		4	-	0	-	2	3	19	37	31	10	1
9	.5	4	-	1	-	1	0	2	13	35	35	13	2	0
		3	-	0	-	3			8	29	44	15	2	2
9		4	-	2	-	0	0	0	1	8	26	33	25	7	0	0
		3	-	1	-	2		0	1	8	28	35	23	5	0
8	.5	3	-	2	-	1			0	1	7	28	42	21	2	0
		2	-	1	-	3					3	23	49	21	4
8		3	-	3	-	0			0	0	0	6	25	44	23	2	0
		2	-	2	-	2				0	0	5	26	47	20	2
		1	-	1	-	4							33	33	33
7	.5	2	-	3	-	1					0	1	10	44	38	7	0	0
		1	-	2	-	3						1	9	35	50	6
7		2	-	4	-	0					0	0	1	15	50	32	2	0
		1	-	3	-	2						0	1	17	50	30	2	0
6	.5	1	-	4	-	1							0	5	36	46	11	1
		0	-	3	-	3								7	54	39
6		1	-	5	-	0							0	1	16	58	24	3	0
		0	-	4	-	2								1	12	57	27	4
5	.5	0	-	5	-	1								0	2	29	49	19	0
5		0	-	6	-	0									1	18	52	28	1	0

Total:							1	2	4	5	8	11	15	19	19	12	3	0	0	0