Fighting Baculum Playoff Chances 2011

Beat Orcas 57-50, playoff odds up 6.3 to 46.2%

6-3-0 .667

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Orcas 50 Fighting Baculu 57	+4.0		+0.3
Pokes 60 Hullabarbaloos 65	-1.6		-0.0
Covingtron 5000 59 bluebirds 49	+0.9		+0.1
Colo. Connectio 63 Neighbor 76	-0.8		-0.0
Yo11 45 Melaniacs 49	+0.5		+0.0
Legion of Doom 68 Hollywood Dogs 52	-0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Legion of Doom vs Fighting Baculu	-17.9+5.3+17.8		-1.0+0.3+1.0
Colo. Connectio vs bluebirds	-1.4+2.7+2.5		-0.0+0.1+0.1
Orcas vs Neighbor	+3.2+2.1-0.6		+0.2+0.1-0.0
Hollywood Dogs vs Melaniacs	+1.1+1.4-0.9		+0.0+0.1-0.0
Yo11 vs Hullabarbaloos			-0.0+0.2+0.0

Chances based on how well the Fighting Baculu finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

12		6	-	0	-	0	In		88	12													157,358
11	.5	5	-	0	-	1	In		82	17	0												26,868
11		5	-	1	-	0	99.9	%	33	45	19	3	0										709,304
		4	-	0	-	2	In		39	46	14	1											1,897
10	.5	4	-	1	-	1	99.6		19	44	30	7	0	0									99,165
		3	-	0	-	3	In		24	40	25	10											67
10		4	-	2	-	0	75.8		1	10	29	36	21	3	0	0							1,303,830
		3	-	1	-	2	82.0		1	11	33	37	16	2	0								5,490
		2	-	0	-	4	In					100											1
9	.5	3	-	2	-	1	54.6		0	2	16	37	33	11	1	0							144,497
		2	-	1	-	3	51.3			1	16	34	33	14	2								160
9		3	-	3	-	0	7.2		0	0	1	6	26	40	23	4	0	0					1,240,261
		2	-	2	-	2	7.4				1	7	28	39	22	3	0						5,812
		1	-	1	-	4	Out						33	67									3
8	.5	2	-	3	-	1	0.9				0	1	10	35	39	14	1	0					101,619
		1	-	2	-	3	Out						11	42	34	13							111
8		2	-	4	-	0	0.0				0	0	0	7	33	44	13	2	0				639,343
		1	-	3	-	2	Out						0	7	33	46	13	1					2,862
7	.5	1	-	4	-	1	Out						0	1	14	46	32	6	0				34,626
		0	-	3	-	3	Out								15	45	30	9					33
7		1	-	5	-	0	Out							0	2	26	42	28	2	0			168,031
		0	-	4	-	2	Out								2	30	42	25	1	0			411
6	.5	0	-	5	-	1	Out							0	0	7	35	48	9	0			4,333
6		0	-	6	-	0	Out									1	16	52	27	3	0		18,112

Total:							46.2	%	9	11	12	14	14	14	12	9	4	2	0	0	0		4,664,194

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 11/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Orcas 50 Fighting Baculu 57	-0.3
Covingtron 5000 59 bluebirds 49	-0.1
Pokes 60 Hullabarbaloos 65	+0.0
Colo. Connectio 63 Neighbor 76	+0.0
Yo11 45 Melaniacs 49	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Legion of Doom vs Fighting Baculu	+1.0-0.3-1.0
Colo. Connectio vs bluebirds	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Yo11 vs Hullabarbaloos	+0.0-0.2-0.0
Orcas vs Neighbor	-0.2-0.1+0.0
Hollywood Dogs vs Melaniacs	-0.0-0.1+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

12		6	-	0	-	0	88	12
11	.5	5	-	0	-	1	82	17	0
11		5	-	1	-	0	33	45	19	3	0
		4	-	0	-	2	39	46	14	1
10	.5	4	-	1	-	1	19	44	30	7	0	0
		3	-	0	-	3	24	40	25	10
10		4	-	2	-	0	1	10	29	36	21	3	0	0
		3	-	1	-	2	1	11	33	37	16	2	0
		2	-	0	-	4				100
9	.5	3	-	2	-	1	0	2	16	37	33	11	1	0
		2	-	1	-	3		1	16	34	33	14	2
9		3	-	3	-	0	0	0	1	6	26	40	23	4	0	0
		2	-	2	-	2			1	7	28	39	22	3	0
		1	-	1	-	4					33	67
8	.5	2	-	3	-	1			0	1	10	35	39	14	1	0
		1	-	2	-	3					11	42	34	13
8		2	-	4	-	0			0	0	0	7	33	44	13	2	0
		1	-	3	-	2					0	7	33	46	13	1
7	.5	1	-	4	-	1					0	1	14	46	32	6	0
		0	-	3	-	3							15	45	30	9
7		1	-	5	-	0						0	2	26	42	28	2	0
		0	-	4	-	2							2	30	42	25	1	0
6	.5	0	-	5	-	1						0	0	7	35	48	9	0
6		0	-	6	-	0								1	16	52	27	3	0

Total:							9	11	12	14	14	14	12	9	4	2	0	0	0