Colo. Connection Playoff Chances 2011

Lost to Neighbor 63-76, playoff odds down 20.5 to 64.2%

6-3-0 .667

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Colo. Connectio 63 Neighbor 76	-12.1		-0.8
Covingtron 5000 59 bluebirds 49	+0.6
Pokes 60 Hullabarbaloos 65	-0.3		-0.0
Orcas 50 Fighting Baculu 57	-0.3		-0.0
Legion of Doom 68 Hollywood Dogs 52	-0.2
Yo11 45 Melaniacs 49			+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Colo. Connectio vs bluebirds	+9.9-4.8-19.1		+0.6-0.2-1.1
Orcas vs Neighbor	+3.4+2.8-0.6		+0.2+0.2-0.0
Hollywood Dogs vs Melaniacs	+1.7-1.7-1.2		+0.1-0.1-0.0
Yo11 vs Hullabarbaloos	-1.2+0.7+1.0		-0.0+0.1+0.0
Legion of Doom vs Fighting Baculu	+0.3-0.9-0.2
Throwbacks vs Pokes	+0.4*+0.4-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Colo. Connectio finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

12		6	-	0	-	0	In		92	8													282,771
11	.5	5	-	0	-	1	In		81	18	1												43,295
11		5	-	1	-	0	100.0	%	48	39	11	1	0										997,540
		4	-	0	-	2	In		55	36	8	1											2,830
10	.5	4	-	1	-	1	99.6		17	44	31	7	0	0									126,013
		3	-	0	-	3	In		9	56	29	6											101
10		4	-	2	-	0	88.2		4	21	36	28	10	1	0								1,416,038
		3	-	1	-	2	90.4		5	23	36	26	8	1	0								6,280
		2	-	0	-	4	In				100												1
9	.5	3	-	2	-	1	53.9		0	2	15	36	33	12	1	0							141,428
		2	-	1	-	3	59.6		1	4	17	38	30	10									156
9		3	-	3	-	0	20.2		0	0	3	17	34	30	13	2	0	0					1,037,472
		2	-	2	-	2	22.5			0	4	18	34	29	13	1	0						5,205
8	.5	2	-	3	-	1	1.0			0	0	1	10	34	41	14	1	0					76,982
		1	-	2	-	3	1.2					1	10	37	39	13							84
8		2	-	4	-	0	0.1				0	0	2	14	36	35	12	1	0				411,637
		1	-	3	-	2	Out						2	14	37	35	12	1					1,826
7	.5	1	-	4	-	1	Out						0	1	13	44	36	7	0	0			20,006
		0	-	3	-	3	Out							6	28	44	22						18
7		1	-	5	-	0	Out						0	0	3	20	43	30	4	0			84,502
		0	-	4	-	2	Out								2	21	44	30	3	0			249
6	.5	0	-	5	-	1	Out								0	3	27	48	20	2			2,062
6		0	-	6	-	0	Out									0	6	42	41	10	0		7,698

Total:							64.2	%	18	17	15	14	12	9	7	4	2	1	0	0	0		4,664,194

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

12		6	-	0	-	0	92	8
11	.5	5	-	0	-	1	81	18	1
11		5	-	1	-	0	48	39	11	1	0
		4	-	0	-	2	55	36	8	1
10	.5	4	-	1	-	1	17	44	31	7	0	0
		3	-	0	-	3	9	56	29	6
10		4	-	2	-	0	4	21	36	28	10	1	0
		3	-	1	-	2	5	23	36	26	8	1	0
		2	-	0	-	4			100
9	.5	3	-	2	-	1	0	2	15	36	33	12	1	0
		2	-	1	-	3	1	4	17	38	30	10
9		3	-	3	-	0	0	0	3	17	34	30	13	2	0	0
		2	-	2	-	2		0	4	18	34	29	13	1	0
8	.5	2	-	3	-	1		0	0	1	10	34	41	14	1	0
		1	-	2	-	3				1	10	37	39	13
8		2	-	4	-	0			0	0	2	14	36	35	12	1	0
		1	-	3	-	2					2	14	37	35	12	1
7	.5	1	-	4	-	1					0	1	13	44	36	7	0	0
		0	-	3	-	3						6	28	44	22
7		1	-	5	-	0					0	0	3	20	43	30	4	0
		0	-	4	-	2							2	21	44	30	3	0
6	.5	0	-	5	-	1							0	3	27	48	20	2
6		0	-	6	-	0								0	6	42	41	10	0

Total:							18	17	15	14	12	9	7	4	2	1	0	0	0