Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Beat Calgary 3-0, playoff odds up 4.3 to 65.6%

8 points 4 1-0

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	+4.2		+1.2		+0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis					+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Columbus					-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Boston					-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-162						In		Yes		100																325	*
119		51	17		-	9	In		98.1	%	99	1															162	*
118		51	18		-	8	In		97.6		99	0	0														212	*
117		51	19		-	7	In		98.2		99	1	0														334	*
116		50	19		-	8	In		96.1		99	1	1														493	*
115		49	19		-	9	In		96.1		98	1	1														716	*
114		49	20		-	8	In		91.5		96	2	2														936	*
113		48	20		-	9	In		88.9		94	3	3														1,263	*
112		48	21		-	8	In		83.1		92	4	4		0												1,640	*
111		47	21		-	9	In		78.0		88	6	6														2,139	*
110		47	22		-	8	In		68.2		82	9	9		0												2,880	*
109		46	22		-	9	In		59.9		78	12	10		0												3,421	*
108		45	22		-	10	In		48.2		72	13	14	0	1												4,274	*
107		45	23		-	9	In		38.8		63	17	18	0	1		0										5,206	*
106		45	24		-	8	In		26.6		54	21	22	0	2		0										6,353	*
105		44	24		-	9	In		16.5		44	24	27	1	4		0										7,476	*
104		44	25		-	8	In		9.5		34	26	32	2	6	0	0										8,741	*
103		43	25		-	9	In		4.5		24	28	34	4	9	0	1	0									10,068	*
102		42	25		-	10	In		1.8		17	27	36	6	13	0	2	0									11,246	*
101		42	26		-	9	100.0	%	0.6		10	25	33	10	18	1	3	0	0								12,312	*
100		42	27		-	8	99.9		0.1		6	21	29	14	22	2	5	1	0								13,789	*
99		41	27		-	9	99.9		No		2	17	23	18	25	3	9	1	0								14,776	*
98		40	27		-	10	99.8		0.0		1	13	16	21	27	6	13	3	0	0							15,583	*
97		40	28		-	9	99.3		No		1	9	10	21	27	9	18	5	1	0	0						16,380	*
96		39	28		-	10	98.1		No		0	6	5	19	23	14	22	9	2	0							16,749	*
95		39	29		-	9	95.5		No		0	4	2	15	17	18	25	14	4	1	0						16,736	*
94		38	29		-	10	89.7		No			2	1	12	11	20	25	20	8	2	0	0					17,239	*
93		38	30		-	9	80.0		No			1	0	8	6	19	21	25	14	5	1	0					16,951	*
92		37	30		-	10	66.2		No			0	0	4	2	17	16	27	21	10	3	0	0				16,456	*
91		37	31		-	9	50.2		No			0	0	3	1	12	10	24	26	16	6	1	0	0			15,483	*
90		36	31		-	10	33.5		No			0		1	0	8	6	18	28	23	12	3	1	0			14,778	*
89		36	32		-	9	20.5		No			0		1	0	5	3	12	25	27	19	7	2	0			13,741	*
88		35	32		-	10	10.8		No			0		0	0	3	1	7	18	28	26	13	4	0			12,497	*
87		35	33		-	9	5.1		No					0		2	0	3	11	24	30	21	7	1			11,338	*
86		34	33		-	10	1.8		No					0		1	0	1	7	19	29	28	13	3			10,038	*
85		34	34		-	9	0.9		No					0		0	0	0	3	12	26	32	21	5			8,907	*
84		33	34		-	10	0.4		No							0	0	0	1	7	20	34	28	9			7,821	*
83		33	35		-	9	0.1		No							0			0	4	13	32	35	16			6,607	*
82		32	35		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	0	2	9	26	39	23			5,381	*
81		32	36		-	9	Out		No										0	0	5	20	42	32			4,495	*
80		32	37		-	8	Out		No											0	3	15	42	41			3,638	*
79		31	37		-	9	Out		No											0	1	9	38	51			2,883	*
78		31	38		-	8	Out		No											0	1	7	33	59			2,241	*
77		30	38		-	9	Out		No												0	4	27	68			1,809	*
76		30	39		-	8	Out		No												0	2	23	75			1,347	*
75		29	39		-	9	Out		No												0	2	15	83			1,032	*
74		28	39		-	10	Out		No													1	12	87			834	*
73		28	40		-	9	Out		No													0	9	90			654	*
72		28	41		-	8	Out		No														7	93			391	*
71		28	42		-	7	Out		No														4	96			317	*
70		27	42		-	8	Out		No														3	97			214	*
69		26	42		-	9	Out		No														3	97			143	*
68		26	43		-	8	Out		No														1	99			105	*
67		25	43		-	9	Out		No														4	96			55	*
8	-66						Out		No															100			135	*

Total:							65.6	%	5.6	%	10	8	9	7	9	6	8	8	7	6	6	6	5	4			351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	-0.9
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	-0.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.0
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis	-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1
Florida vs Dallas	-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Arizona vs Boston	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-162						100
119		51	17		-	9	98	1	1
118		51	18		-	8	98	1	0		0
117		51	19		-	7	98	1	1		0
116		50	19		-	8	96	3	1		1
115		49	19		-	9	96	2	1		1
114		49	20		-	8	91	4	2		2
113		48	20		-	9	89	5	3		3
112		48	21		-	8	83	9	4		4				0
111		47	21		-	9	78	10	6		6
110		47	22		-	8	68	14	9		9	0			0
109		46	22		-	9	60	18	12	0	10	0			0
108		45	22		-	10	48	24	13	0	14	0	0		1
107		45	23		-	9	39	24	17	1	18	0	0		1				0
106		45	24		-	8	27	27	20	1	21	1	0		2				0
105		44	24		-	9	17	27	22	2	25	2	1		4				0
104		44	25		-	8	9	25	22	4	27	5	2		6	0	0		0
103		43	25		-	9	4	20	21	7	27	7	4	0	9	0	0		1		0
102		42	25		-	10	2	15	17	9	24	12	6	0	12	1	0		2		0
101		42	26		-	9	1	10	13	12	17	16	9	0	16	1	1		3		0		0
100		42	27		-	8	0	6	9	12	11	18	13	1	19	3	2		5	0	1		0
99		41	27		-	9		2	5	12	5	18	16	3	19	6	3	0	9	0	1		0
98		40	27		-	10	0	1	2	10	2	14	15	6	17	11	6	0	12	1	3	0	0	0
97		40	28		-	9		1	1	8	0	10	12	9	11	15	9	0	15	3	5	0	1	0	0
96		39	28		-	10		0	0	5	0	5	8	12	6	17	12	2	16	6	9	0	2	0
95		39	29		-	9		0	0	3	0	2	4	11	2	15	14	4	14	11	13	1	4	1	0
94		38	29		-	10			0	2		1	2	10	0	10	12	8	9	15	15	5	8	2	0	0	0
93		38	30		-	9			0	1		0	1	7	0	6	8	12	4	17	15	10	13	5	1	0	0
92		37	30		-	10				0		0	0	4	0	2	4	13	1	14	10	17	16	11	5	1	0	0	0
91		37	31		-	9				0		0	0	3		1	1	11	0	10	4	20	13	17	12	5	2	0	0			0
90		36	31		-	10				0				1		0	0	8	0	6	1	17	8	16	18	14	7	3	1	0	0
89		36	32		-	9				0				1		0	0	5		3	0	11	3	9	17	20	16	10	4	1	0	0
88		35	32		-	10				0				0		0	0	3		1	0	7	1	3	10	17	21	19	12	5	2	0	0
87		35	33		-	9								0				2		0		3	0	1	4	9	17	22	20	13	6	2	0	0
86		34	33		-	10								0				1		0		1	0	0	1	4	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0
85		34	34		-	9								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	3	9	17	24	23	15	6	2	0	0
84		33	34		-	10												0		0		0		0		0	1	3	9	18	25	23	14	6	1	0
83		33	35		-	9												0							0	0	0	1	4	9	21	26	22	12	4	0
82		32	35		-	10												0				0				0		0	1	4	12	22	29	20	9	1
81		32	36		-	9																						0	0	1	6	16	27	28	16	4
80		32	37		-	8																							0	1	3	9	23	31	25	8
79		31	37		-	9																							0	0	1	4	14	32	33	15
78		31	38		-	8																									1	2	9	26	39	23
77		30	38		-	9																								0	0	0	5	21	40	34
76		30	39		-	8																									0	0	3	14	39	45
75		29	39		-	9																								0			1	8	34	56
74		28	39		-	10																											0	5	28	66
73		28	40		-	9																											0	2	23	74
72		28	41		-	8																												1	16	82
71		28	42		-	7																													12	88
70		27	42		-	8																													10	90
69		26	42		-	9																													8	92
68		26	43		-	8																													5	95
67		25	43		-	9																													7	93
66		24	43		-	10																													3	97
8	-65																																			100

Total:							6	5	4	3	5	4	4	3	5	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2