Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 41.1%

1 points 0 2-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.4				*-0.0
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)					*-0.1
Detroit 3 Carolina 2					+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Carolina	+4.4+4.0+3.5-1.0-1.3-5.2		+0.4+0.3+0.2-0.1*-0.1-0.4		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1*-0.1-0.6
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.6-0.0+0.2-0.7-0.2-0.5				+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.4-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.5
Florida vs Dallas					-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

117	-159						In		99.4	%	100																176	*
116		53	17		-	9	In		98.9		99	1															87	*
115		53	18		-	8	In		90.0		96	2	2														130	*
114		53	19		-	7	In		91.4		96	3	1														221	*
113		52	19		-	8	In		88.2		97	1	2		0												254	*
112		51	19		-	9	In		81.5		92	4	3														426	*
111		51	20		-	8	In		76.2		88	7	5														575	*
110		50	20		-	9	In		66.2		85	8	8		0												799	*
109		49	20		-	10	In		57.2		80	11	9	0	0												1,103	*
108		49	21		-	9	In		45.7		73	14	13		1												1,403	*
107		49	22		-	8	In		36.1		65	17	17		1												1,812	*
106		48	22		-	9	In		25.2		54	23	20	0	2		0										2,379	*
105		47	22		-	10	In		18.2		49	24	24	1	2		0										3,085	*
104		47	23		-	9	In		9.3		36	28	28	2	5	0	0										3,753	*
103		47	24		-	8	In		4.3		26	31	32	3	7	0	1	0									4,554	*
102		46	24		-	9	In		1.3		17	30	33	6	11	0	1										5,681	*
101		45	24		-	10	100.0	%	0.4		11	28	31	11	15	1	3	0	0								6,727	*
100		45	25		-	9	100.0		0.1		6	25	29	15	19	1	4	1	0								7,957	*
99		44	25		-	10	99.9		No		3	20	23	19	23	3	8	1	0								9,043	*
98		44	26		-	9	99.8		No		1	15	15	23	25	7	11	2	0	0							10,257	*
97		43	26		-	10	99.2		No		0	10	9	24	24	11	15	5	1	0							11,417	*
96		43	27		-	9	97.7		No		0	7	5	22	20	16	19	9	2	0	0	0					12,704	*
95		42	27		-	10	93.8		No		0	4	2	18	14	20	22	14	5	1	0	0					13,897	*
94		42	28		-	9	86.2		No			2	1	13	8	22	20	19	10	3	1	0	0	0			14,776	*
93		41	28		-	10	73.7		No			1	0	8	4	21	17	23	17	7	2	0	0				15,867	*
92		41	29		-	9	56.7		No			1	0	5	2	17	11	21	23	14	5	1	0	0	0		16,244	*
91		40	29		-	10	38.9		No			0	0	3	1	12	6	17	24	20	11	4	1	0	0	0	16,697	*
90		40	30		-	9	23.3		No			0		1	0	8	3	11	21	25	18	9	3	0	0		16,948	*
89		39	30		-	10	12.2		No			0		1	0	5	1	6	15	24	25	16	6	2	0		16,923	*
88		39	31		-	9	5.2		No			0		0	0	2	0	2	9	19	26	23	13	4	1	0	16,769	*
87		38	31		-	10	2.1		No					0		1	0	1	4	12	23	27	21	8	2	0	16,183	*
86		38	32		-	9	0.7		No					0		0	0	0	2	7	17	26	27	16	5	1	15,289	*
85		37	32		-	10	0.3		No							0	0	0	0	3	10	21	30	24	9	1	14,218	*
84		37	33		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	5	15	28	29	17	4	13,361	*
83		36	33		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	0	0	3	10	24	33	24	7	12,039	*
82		36	34		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	5	17	32	32	12	11,118	*
81		35	34		-	10	Out		No										0	0	0	2	11	29	38	19	9,807	*
80		35	35		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	7	22	41	29	8,451	*
79		34	35		-	10	Out		No												0	0	4	17	41	38	7,203	*
78		34	36		-	9	Out		No												0	0	2	11	38	49	6,309	*
77		33	36		-	10	Out		No														1	7	35	57	5,368	*
76		33	37		-	9	Out		No														0	4	29	67	4,287	*
75		32	37		-	10	Out		No														0	3	24	73	3,523	*
74		32	38		-	9	Out		No														0	2	18	80	2,898	*
73		31	38		-	10	Out		No															1	14	86	2,168	*
72		31	39		-	9	Out		No															0	9	91	1,785	*
71		31	40		-	8	Out		No															0	7	92	1,366	*
70		30	40		-	9	Out		No																4	96	1,056	*
69		29	40		-	10	Out		No																4	96	749	*
68		28	40		-	11	Out		No																4	96	539	*
67		28	41		-	10	Out		No																2	98	409	*
66		27	41		-	11	Out		No																3	97	293	*
65		27	42		-	10	Out		No																1	99	223	*
64		27	43		-	9	Out		No																1	99	143	*
1	-63						Out		No																	100	291	*

Total:							41.1	%	1.7	%	4	5	5	6	5	6	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	9	351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+0.1
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs Carolina	-0.9-0.8-0.8+0.3*+0.2+1.1
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Florida vs Dallas	+0.0-0.1+0.1*+0.1-0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

118	-159						100
117		54	17		-	8	98	2
116		53	17		-	9	99		1
115		53	18		-	8	90	6	2		2
114		53	19		-	7	91	5	3		1
113		52	19		-	8	88	9	1		2				0
112		51	19		-	9	81	11	4		3
111		51	20		-	8	76	12	6	0	5
110		50	20		-	9	66	19	7	0	8				0
109		49	20		-	10	57	23	11	0	9		0		0
108		49	21		-	9	46	27	13	0	13	0			1
107		49	22		-	8	36	29	16	1	17	0			1
106		48	22		-	9	25	29	21	2	19	1	0		2	0			0
105		47	22		-	10	18	31	20	3	22	2	1		2				0
104		47	23		-	9	9	27	23	5	24	5	2		5	0	0		0
103		47	24		-	8	4	22	22	9	24	8	3	0	7	0	0		1		0
102		46	24		-	9	1	16	19	12	20	13	6	0	10	0	0		1
101		45	24		-	10	0	11	14	14	16	16	10	0	14	2	1		3	0	0		0
100		45	25		-	9	0	6	10	15	10	19	14	1	16	4	1		4	0	1		0
99		44	25		-	10		3	5	15	5	18	15	3	17	7	3	0	8	0	1		0
98		44	26		-	9		1	2	13	1	14	16	7	14	11	7	0	10	1	2	0	0	0
97		43	26		-	10		0	1	9	0	9	14	11	9	15	11	0	13	2	5	0	1	0
96		43	27		-	9		0	0	7	0	5	8	13	5	15	14	2	14	5	8	0	2	0	0	0
95		42	27		-	10		0	0	4		2	4	14	1	12	15	5	13	9	13	1	5	1	0	0
94		42	28		-	9			0	2		1	2	11	0	8	13	9	8	12	16	4	10	3	1	0	0	0
93		41	28		-	10				1		0	1	8	0	4	8	13	4	13	14	8	16	8	2	0	0
92		41	29		-	9				1		0	0	5		2	4	13	1	10	8	13	18	15	8	2	1	0	0
91		40	29		-	10				0		0	0	3		1	2	10	0	6	4	14	14	20	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
90		40	30		-	9				0				1		0	1	8	0	3	1	10	7	17	21	17	9	3	1	0	0
89		39	30		-	10				0				1		0	0	5		1	0	6	3	9	18	21	19	11	5	1	0	0
88		39	31		-	9				0				0		0	0	2		0	0	2	1	3	9	17	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
87		38	31		-	10								0			0	1		0		1	0	1	3	9	17	22	21	15	7	2	1	0	0
86		38	32		-	9								0				0		0		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0
85		37	32		-	10												0		0		0		0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	7	2	0	0
84		37	33		-	9												0				0	0		0	0	1	3	8	16	24	24	16	6	1	0
83		36	33		-	10												0				0				0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	13	4	1
82		36	34		-	9												0									0	0	1	4	11	22	29	22	9	2
81		35	34		-	10																						0	0	1	5	16	27	29	18	4
80		35	35		-	9																							0	0	2	8	21	32	27	9
79		34	35		-	10																								0	1	4	14	29	35	17
78		34	36		-	9																									0	2	8	25	40	26
77		33	36		-	10																									0	0	4	18	41	36
76		33	37		-	9																								0		0	2	11	39	47
75		32	37		-	10																											1	8	35	57
74		32	38		-	9																											0	4	29	67
73		31	38		-	10																											0	2	22	76
72		31	39		-	9																												1	16	83
71		31	40		-	8																												1	12	87
70		30	40		-	9																												0	9	91
69		29	40		-	10																												0	7	93
68		28	40		-	11																													6	94
67		28	41		-	10																													4	96
66		27	41		-	11																													5	95
65		27	42		-	10																													3	97
64		27	43		-	9																													1	99
1	-63																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	3	2	3	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6