Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Beat Columbus 2-1 (so), playoff odds up 3.1 to 44.1%
3 points   1 2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)+3.0
*+0.3
+0.4
Detroit 3 Carolina 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Toronto-5.1-1.0*-0.7+3.6+3.3+4.3
-0.6*-0.1*-0.2+0.5+0.3+0.5
-0.6*-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.5
Arizona vs Boston+0.6*+0.3*-0.1-1.1*-0.9*-0.3
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1*-0.1*-0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville-0.5*+0.4*-0.3*-0.1*+0.1+0.5
-0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.0
Florida vs Dallas-0.0*-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
118-159InYes100151*
1175317-8In97.8%99190*
1165318-7In95.5982133*
1155218-8In95.5991177*
1145118-9In92.19712267*
1135119-8In86.69523367*
1125019-9In82.79334565*
1115020-8In77.29145693*
1105021-7In66.385870946*
1094921-8In57.88091001,383*
1084821-9In45.17314130101,773*
1074822-8In35.66515190102,225*
1064722-9In24.35620220202,803*
1054723-8In14.84522281403,682*
1044623-9In8.53526312614,494*
1034624-8In4.32725334100105,557*
1024524-9In1.71727356130206,488*
1014525-8100.0%0.3102434101803007,554*
1004425-9100.00.162128142326108,832*
994325-1099.80.031722182631020010,167*
984326-999.5No11216202761430011,430*
974327-898.7No09920251019710012,776*
964227-997.0No0541821152311300013,913*
954127-1092.1No03215141824176100014,844*
944128-984.0No2110820222212410015,732*
934028-1070.1No106417172519820016,391*
924029-953.5No004113112324146200016,911*
913929-1035.2No002096182622124100016,901*
903930-919.8No0106311212620931016,962*
893830-1010.1No00031516252516720016,480*
883831-94.2No00020291926241341016,258*
873731-101.5No010141223282092015,597*
863732-90.6No00016162727165114,351*
853632-100.2No00031021292410213,603*
843633-90.1No00001515283017412,333*
833533-100.0No00029233325711,126*
823534-9OutNo015163233139,869*
813434-100.0No0002112937208,598*
803435-9OutNo0172341287,334*
793335-10OutNo0041642386,449*
783336-9OutNo011240475,393*
773236-10OutNo01835564,484*
763237-9OutNo1428683,626*
753137-10OutNo0323742,839*
743138-9OutNo0119792,174*
733038-10OutNo0115841,848*
723039-9OutNo010891,400*
713040-8OutNo09911,031*
702940-9OutNo0694808*
692840-10OutNo0595561*
682841-9OutNo496404*
672842-8OutNo298285*
662742-9OutNo0100215*
652642-10OutNo199139*
642643-9OutNo298105*
3-63OutNo100223*
Total:44.1%2.0%5555656777777778351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)-0.7
Detroit 3 Carolina 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Toronto+1.1*+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.9
Arizona vs Boston-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville+0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Florida vs Dallas+0.0*+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.1-0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose-0.0*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
118-159100
1175317-89811
1165318-79532
1155218-89531
1145118-992412
1135119-887823
1125019-9831134
1115020-87714405
1105021-76618870
1094921-8582390100
1084821-94528130130010
1074822-83629141181010
1064722-92432182202020
1054723-815301932441400
1044623-98272152552601
1034624-84221872594090010
1024524-92151610221360121020
1014525-80101113161810016203000
1004425-90671391913119426010
994325-100341341815318730902000
984326-912101141461512601313000
974327-80180911910169116360100
964227-9005047124161321661103000
954127-1000302312113135131115261000
944128-90211907119814175114100
934028-1010060461131415101793100
924029-900041311110914191683100
913929-1000020180631414211793100
903930-9001005031107172219104100
893830-100000310529182220125200
883831-9000020020391823211472000
873731-1001010138162222158200
863732-90000001381522231683100
853632-10000138152223178300
843633-90000003717242316720
833533-100001391826241451
823534-9001410222823102
813434-1000015142530195
803435-9002821312810
793335-10001413303617
783336-90028244026
773236-10014184136
763237-9002113849
753137-10183358
743138-9042966
733038-10032374
723039-9011683
713040-811386
702940-901090
692840-100892
682841-9694
672842-8496
662742-9298
652642-10199
642643-9397
3-63100
Total:232233233333334344444444444445