Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 48.3%
5 points   2 2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5 *-0.2
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)*+0.0
Detroit 3 Carolina 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo+4.5+4.2+3.3*-0.3-1.0-5.5
+0.6+0.7+0.6*-0.2-0.4-0.8
+0.5+0.5+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.6
Florida vs Dallas-0.0-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Boston+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto+0.0*+0.0*-0.1*-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
119-159InYes100140*
1185216-9In98.5%98266*
1175217-8In97.3100111*
1165117-9In94.9991175*
1155118-8In95.8991215*
1145119-7In88.39433349*
1135019-8In86.39532452*
1125020-7In80.190550685*
1114920-8In77.58966941*
1104820-9In66.28677001,278*
1094821-8In59.0801010001,671*
1084721-9In48.574121312,146*
1074722-8In35.16417170102,743*
1064622-9In24.45521220203,526*
1054623-8In14.745252514004,393*
1044523-9In9.03625312605,385*
1034524-8In4.027283338106,126*
1024424-9100.0%1.618273561302007,467*
1014425-8In0.511253310171408,624*
1004325-9100.00.162228142216109,974*
994326-899.90.03172317253920011,152*
984226-999.5No11216202761430012,472*
974126-1098.8No09920251019610013,525*
964127-997.0No054192015231130014,839*
954128-892.6No0321514182417610015,644*
944028-984.1No211181922221141016,385*
933928-1071.6No107417182518820016,879*
923929-953.8No00411411232414610017,085*
913829-1036.6No02010617262111410017,219*
903830-921.0No0106311222519930016,749*
893730-1010.5No00031615252516720016,261*
883731-94.7No00020291926231341015,645*
873631-101.7No010141223272092014,661*
863632-90.6No00027172627165113,728*
853532-100.1No00031022302310212,688*
843533-90.1No0001515292916411,393*
833433-10OutNo0039233325710,148*
823434-90.0No0015173332128,910*
813334-10OutNo002112938207,564*
803335-9OutNo0162442276,473*
793235-10OutNo0041641395,427*
783236-9OutNo0011239484,399*
773237-8OutNo01735573,800*
763137-9OutNo00530643,010*
753138-8OutNo0224732,326*
743038-9OutNo218801,703*
732938-10OutNo114861,411*
722939-9OutNo010891,071*
712839-10OutNo991766*
702840-9OutNo595562*
692740-10OutNo694427*
682741-9OutNo0298306*
672742-8OutNo199196*
662642-9OutNo199139*
652542-10OutNo19993*
642442-11OutNo29865*
5-63OutNo100152*
Total:48.3%2.5%6566667776666666351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)*-0.1
Detroit 3 Carolina 2 +0.0
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo-0.9-0.9-0.7*+0.1+0.3+1.1
Florida vs Dallas+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
Arizona vs Boston-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Chicago vs Columbus-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.2*+0.1+0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville+0.0*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto-0.0*-0.0*+0.1*+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
119-159100
1185216-9982
1175116-10973
1165117-99541
1155118-89631
1145119-788633
1135019-886932
1125020-78010550
1114920-87711650
1104820-9661977000
1094821-8592110010000
1084721-948251201301
1074722-83529161170010
1064622-92430192211020
1054623-815312132231400
1044523-99272052652600
1034524-8423208249308010
1024424-921617102213601210200
1014425-8010121315181001521400
1004325-90681491912118416010
994326-8034134191431873090200
984226-912101141461512601313000
974126-100180911910169116360100
964127-900504712416132176100300
954128-80030231211313513111526100
944028-90211100811881417511410
933928-1001006046113141510169310
923929-90004131111191419168300
913829-10002019064141420169310
903830-901006031107172219104100
893730-10000030106291723201152000
883731-9000020020391723211462100
873631-10001010138172222157310
863632-900000138162223168300
853532-1000000027162323178200
843533-9000013816242416710
833433-10001381825251451
823434-90001411222823102
813334-10015142730185
803335-9000282032289
793235-1001414303417
783236-90027253927
773237-8014184036
763137-9003123846
753138-80183556
743038-9052965
732938-10022177
722939-9011682
712839-1011486
702840-90990
692740-100891
682741-90396
672742-8397
662642-9199
652542-10397
642442-11298
62-63100
612344-10694
5-60100
Total:333333333333434344444444444444