San Jose Sharks Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Lost to New Jersey 2-3, playoff odds down 4.5 to 53%

4 points 2 2-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-4.9		-1.0		-0.5
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	*+0.3				+0.0
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	*+0.2				+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis					-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0
Los Angeles vs Minnesota					-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-5.0-1.0*-0.2+3.5+3.5+4.0		-0.8-0.3*-0.2+0.6+0.7+0.7		-0.5-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.4+0.4
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.2+0.4+1.2-0.0-0.1-0.4				+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.0
Arizona vs Boston					-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-160						In		Yes		100																105	*
119		53	16		-	9	In		98.8	%	99	1															83	*
118		54	18		-	6	In		Yes		100																85	*
117		52	17		-	9	In		96.6		97	3															119	*
116		51	17		-	10	In		95.1		98	1	1														162	*
115		51	18		-	9	In		95.7		97	1	2														254	*
114		51	19		-	8	In		89.9		95	3	1														406	*
113		50	19		-	9	In		87.4		94	4	2														499	*
112		50	20		-	8	In		82.2		90	6	4		0												730	*
111		49	20		-	9	In		78.0		88	8	4		0												957	*
110		49	21		-	8	In		66.9		82	10	8		0												1,361	*
109		48	21		-	9	In		60.1		78	13	8	0	0												1,673	*
108		48	22		-	8	In		47.8		70	16	13	0	0												2,277	*
107		47	22		-	9	In		36.5		61	21	16	0	1												2,833	*
106		47	23		-	8	In		27.2		54	25	18	1	2		0										3,552	*
105		46	23		-	9	In		17.3		44	28	24	2	3		0										4,466	*
104		46	24		-	8	In		9.9		35	30	28	3	4	0	0										5,458	*
103		45	24		-	9	In		4.6		23	34	30	5	7	0	1										6,610	*
102		44	24		-	10	In		1.7		16	34	31	8	10	0	1	0									7,651	*
101		44	25		-	9	In		0.5		10	31	30	12	14	1	2	0									9,083	*
100		44	26		-	8	100.0	%	0.1		5	27	26	17	19	1	4	0	0								10,310	*
99		43	26		-	9	99.9		0.0		2	22	20	23	22	4	7	1	0								11,463	*
98		42	26		-	10	99.8		No		1	16	14	25	24	7	10	2	0	0							12,529	*
97		42	27		-	9	99.4		No		0	12	8	26	22	12	14	4	1	0							13,971	*
96		41	27		-	10	98.3		No		0	8	4	25	19	17	18	7	2	0	0						14,810	*
95		41	28		-	9	95.9		No		0	5	2	21	14	22	21	12	3	1	0	0					15,595	*
94		40	28		-	10	90.4		No		0	3	1	16	8	25	21	17	7	2	0	0					16,308	*
93		40	29		-	9	80.7		No			2	0	11	5	24	18	21	13	5	1	0	0				16,786	*
92		39	29		-	10	66.7		No			1	0	6	2	21	13	23	20	10	3	1	0				17,008	*
91		39	30		-	9	50.6		No			0	0	4	1	17	8	20	24	17	7	2	0	0			16,914	*
90		38	30		-	10	34.8		No			0		2	0	12	5	15	25	23	12	4	1	0			16,900	*
89		38	31		-	9	20.9		No			0		1	0	8	2	10	22	27	20	8	2	0			16,077	*
88		37	31		-	10	11.4		No			0		1	0	5	1	5	16	27	26	15	4	0			15,476	*
87		37	32		-	9	5.6		No			0		0		3	0	2	10	23	30	22	8	1			14,520	*
86		36	32		-	10	2.5		No					0		1	0	1	6	17	30	28	14	3			13,346	*
85		36	33		-	9	1.0		No					0		1	0	0	3	11	25	33	22	6			12,427	*
84		35	33		-	10	0.5		No					0		0		0	1	6	19	34	30	10			11,210	*
83		35	34		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	3	13	31	37	16			9,709	*
82		34	34		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	8	26	40	24			8,779	*
81		34	35		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	1	5	19	42	33			7,356	*
80		34	36		-	8	Out		No											0	2	14	40	43			6,406	*
79		33	36		-	9	0.0		No							0				0	1	10	36	52			5,406	*
78		32	36		-	10	Out		No											0	0	5	32	62			4,373	*
77		32	37		-	9	Out		No												0	4	26	71			3,549	*
76		31	37		-	10	Out		No												0	2	22	76			2,907	*
75		31	38		-	9	Out		No												0	1	16	83			2,286	*
74		30	38		-	10	Out		No													0	12	88			1,790	*
73		30	39		-	9	Out		No													0	10	90			1,345	*
72		29	39		-	10	Out		No												0	0	6	93			1,025	*
71		29	40		-	9	Out		No														5	95			787	*
70		28	40		-	10	Out		No														3	97			605	*
69		28	41		-	9	Out		No														2	98			382	*
68		27	41		-	10	Out		No														1	99			295	*
67		27	42		-	9	Out		No															100			214	*
66		27	43		-	8	Out		No														1	99			162	*
4	-65						Out		No															100			350	*

Total:							53.0	%	2.8	%	6	7	6	8	6	8	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8			351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	+1.1
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	-0.1
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1+0.1-0.1
Vancouver vs St. Louis	+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+1.1+0.2+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.9
Arizona vs Boston	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.0-0.1-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.0
Calgary vs Edmonton	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Florida vs Dallas	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-160						100
119		53	16		-	9	99		1
118		54	18		-	6	100
117		52	17		-	9	97	1	3
116		51	17		-	10	95	3	1		1
115		51	18		-	9	96	2	1		2
114		51	19		-	8	90	5	3		1
113		50	19		-	9	87	6	4		2
112		50	20		-	8	82	8	6		4				0
111		49	20		-	9	78	10	8		4				0
110		49	21		-	8	67	15	10	0	7	0			0
109		48	21		-	9	60	18	13	0	8		0		0
108		48	22		-	8	48	22	16	0	13	0	0		0
107		47	22		-	9	37	25	21	0	16	0	0		1
106		47	23		-	8	27	26	24	1	18	1	1		2				0
105		46	23		-	9	17	26	25	3	22	1	2		3				0
104		46	24		-	8	10	25	25	5	24	3	3		4	0	0		0
103		45	24		-	9	5	19	26	8	24	7	5	0	7	0	0		1
102		44	24		-	10	2	14	23	11	20	10	8	0	10	1	0		1		0
101		44	25		-	9	1	10	17	14	16	14	12	0	13	1	1		2		0
100		44	26		-	8	0	5	11	16	10	16	16	1	16	3	1		4	0	0		0
99		43	26		-	9	0	2	6	16	5	16	19	3	16	5	3	0	6	0	1		0
98		42	26		-	10		1	3	13	2	13	18	7	15	9	7	0	9	1	2	0	0	0
97		42	27		-	9		0	1	10	0	8	15	11	10	13	12	1	12	2	4	0	1	0
96		41	27		-	10		0	1	8	0	4	10	14	5	14	15	2	13	5	7	0	2	0	0
95		41	28		-	9		0	0	5		2	5	15	2	13	17	5	12	9	11	1	3	1	0	0
94		40	28		-	10		0	0	3		1	2	14	0	8	15	10	8	12	14	3	7	2	0	0	0
93		40	29		-	9				2		0	1	10	0	5	10	14	4	15	13	8	12	5	2	0	0
92		39	29		-	10				1		0	0	6		2	5	16	1	12	8	14	15	11	5	2	0	0	0
91		39	30		-	9				0		0	0	4		1	2	15	0	8	4	17	12	17	12	6	2	0	0
90		38	30		-	10				0				2		0	1	11	0	5	1	14	7	15	18	14	8	3	1	0	0
89		38	31		-	9				0				1		0	0	8	0	2	0	10	3	8	16	20	16	10	4	1	0	0	0
88		37	31		-	10				0				1		0	0	4		1	0	5	1	3	9	17	21	19	12	5	1	0	0
87		37	32		-	9				0				0			0	3		0		2	0	1	3	9	17	22	21	13	7	2	0	0	0
86		36	32		-	10								0				1		0		1		0	1	3	8	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0
85		36	33		-	9								0				1		0		0		0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0
84		35	33		-	10								0				0				0			0	0	1	3	9	18	24	24	14	5	1	0
83		35	34		-	9												0				0				0	0	1	4	10	19	26	23	13	4	0
82		34	34		-	10												0				0					0	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	9	2
81		34	35		-	9												0										0	0	1	6	15	26	29	18	4
80		34	36		-	8																							0	0	2	9	21	33	26	8
79		33	36		-	9												0											0	0	1	5	14	30	34	16
78		32	36		-	10																								0	0	2	9	24	39	25
77		32	37		-	9																									0	1	5	19	41	35
76		31	37		-	10																									0	0	3	13	37	46
75		31	38		-	9																										0	1	7	34	57
74		30	38		-	10																										0	0	5	29	66
73		30	39		-	9																											0	3	23	73
72		29	39		-	10																											0	1	16	83
71		29	40		-	9																												1	15	84
70		28	40		-	10																												0	8	91
69		28	41		-	9																												0	7	93
68		27	41		-	10																													3	97
67		27	42		-	9																													3	97
66		27	43		-	8																													2	98
65		27	44		-	7																													1	99
4	-64																																			100

Total:							3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	4	4