Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.06 to 60.3%
6 points   3 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
NY Islanders vs San Jose-0.5*-0.4*+0.2*+0.1*-0.1+0.5
-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Columbus+0.0*+0.0-0.0+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
120-162InYes100218*
1195217-9In97.7%991130*
1185218-8In98.3991174*
1175118-9In95.59901288*
1165119-8In96.7991361*
1155019-9In94.49821535*
1145020-8In92.29721704*
1134920-9In86.994320988*
1124820-10In82.993521,312*
1114821-9In77.8916401,762*
1104822-8In69.1868602,288*
1094722-9In57.980128002,745*
1084723-8In48.5751410003,742*
1074623-9In37.56719140104,617*
1064624-8In26.45822180105,403*
1054524-9In16.64728221206,421*
1044525-8In9.339302524007,648*
1034425-9In4.528342846008,817*
1024325-10In1.6193331690109,974*
1014326-9100.0%0.61232311012020011,460*
1004226-10In0.172729151713012,954*
994227-9100.00.03242320213610013,598*
984127-1099.8No1181625236920014,835*
974128-999.3No113102523101341015,534*
964028-1098.3No0952520161772016,484*
954029-995.4No0522014222012410016,701*
943929-1088.8No0311692419178300017,110*
933930-977.8No020114231721146200017,186*
923830-1061.0No10721912212112510016,710*
913831-944.0No00411571823191031016,124*
903731-1027.1No02010311222417820015,427*
893732-914.2No01061616242415510014,525*
883632-107.0No00031392027221140013,490*
873633-92.7No0020151324271982012,483*
863533-101.2No010028182725144011,066*
853534-90.3No0001311232922819,942*
843434-100.2No000161828281438,774*
833435-90.1No000031024332277,485*
823335-10OutNo0016193330116,345*
813336-9OutNo13122938185,352*
803236-10OutNo0182541264,400*
793237-9OutNo0041842363,526*
783137-10OutNo0021339452,816*
773138-9OutNo01934552,288*
763038-10OutNo0529661,776*
753039-9OutNo0424721,347*
743040-8OutNo0120791,098*
732940-9OutNo11287819*
722840-10OutNo1990600*
712841-9OutNo0594413*
702842-8OutNo0892294*
692742-9OutNo496208*
682642-10OutNo298124*
672643-9OutNo19992*
662543-10OutNo39778*
652544-9OutNo49654*
6-64OutNo10095*
Total:60.3%4.6%9988776666655544351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2 -0.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 +0.0
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Columbus-0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0
NY Islanders vs San Jose+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto+0.0*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.2-0.0
Arizona vs Boston-0.0*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.1+0.0
Florida vs Dallas+0.0-0.0*+0.1*+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120-162100
1195217-99821
1185218-89811
1175118-995301
1165119-89721
1155019-994321
1145020-892521
1134920-9877320
1124820-10831052
1114821-978136040
1104822-8691780600
1094722-958221208000
1084723-8482714110000
1074623-93829181131010
1064624-82632212171010
1054524-917302532021200
1044525-8930255214204000
1034425-952425921846000
1024325-10217211219126090010
1014326-9112161515161001110200
1004226-1007101710191411431300
994227-9036185181731563050100
984127-10131521417713960812000
974128-9111101014119141001124010
964028-100180510155151421347020
954029-9005025152131651181114100
943929-10003121308141071214383100
933930-90020110049144131471372000
923830-10100602514111912171462000
913831-900041213064141418147200
903731-10002019031108172115831000
893732-9010060106391822181041000
883632-10000031031310182319125200
873633-90002010139182321147200
863533-1001000139172322157200
853534-90000138172423157200
843434-10000131019252214510
833435-9000013101926241240
823335-1000141223282291
813336-90016152729174
803236-1001392133259
793237-9001414303416
783137-100029263726
773138-915204034
763038-1003123947
753039-90183655
743040-8062965
732940-9022375
722840-10011584
712841-901090
702842-811486
692742-9694
682642-10298
672643-9199
662543-10496
652544-9793
6-64100
Total:554544443344333333333333333222