Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 53.6%
6 points   3 2-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 -0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Ottawa vs Nashville+4.0+4.0+3.7*-0.3*-0.7-5.1
+0.8+0.7+0.5*-0.3-0.4-0.9
+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Arizona vs Boston+0.5*-0.0*+0.1*-0.0*-0.5-0.4
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto+0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo*+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1*+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
122-160InYes10087*
1215214-11In96.3%96427*
1205316-8InYes10051*
1195216-9In98.799176*
1185217-8InYes100108*
1175117-9In97.5991161*
1165118-8In93.79711223*
1155018-9In91.09721343*
1145019-8In91.99721479*
1135020-7In88.09532673*
1124920-8In81.993430895*
1114820-9In74.589561,258*
1104821-8In66.8858701,622*
1094721-9In58.08011902,156*
1084722-8In45.8721413012,767*
1074622-9In36.8671616013,372*
1064623-8In26.45620211204,375*
1054523-9In17.24823251305,206*
1044524-8In8.537272926006,271*
1034424-9In4.5272833380107,578*
1024425-8In1.51829336120208,820*
1014325-9In0.411263310170309,965*
1004326-8100.0%0.1622291422151011,176*
994226-999.90.0319231824392012,400*
984227-899.6No11416212661330013,905*
974127-998.9No19921251018610014,649*
964128-897.2No065192015211120015,532*
954028-993.4No03216141824165100016,420*
943928-1086.0No0211192023211031016,995*
933929-973.0No107419172417820016,973*
923930-856.2No004215122324145100017,087*
913830-937.3No002010718262111410016,918*
903730-1022.8No0107312222519820016,316*
893731-911.8No00041616252415610015,362*
883631-104.9No00020292027221341014,655*
873632-91.8No010141323281982013,806*
863532-100.7No000026172727155112,550*
853533-90.2No000013102329229111,566*
843433-100.0No001616292916310,171*
833434-9OutNo0031024332368,852*
823334-10OutNo015173331127,456*
813335-9OutNo003112838196,636*
803336-8OutNo0172440285,581*
793236-9OutNo041841374,545*
783136-10OutNo021239463,520*
773137-9OutNo1834582,948*
763037-10OutNo0529662,301*
753038-9OutNo323741,799*
743039-8OutNo220781,325*
732939-9OutNo115841,077*
722940-8OutNo0990777*
712840-9OutNo0891526*
702740-10OutNo0594408*
692741-9OutNo0496322*
682742-8OutNo496196*
672541-11OutNo298162*
662542-10OutNo298106*
652543-9OutNo29865*
642544-8OutNo39737*
6-63OutNo100107*
Total:53.6%3.3%7676767766666655351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2 +0.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Nashville-0.9-0.8-0.8*+0.1+0.2+1.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0
Arizona vs Boston-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Chicago vs Columbus-0.0*-0.0+0.1*-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Florida vs Dallas+0.0*+0.0*+0.0*-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
122-160100
1215214-11964
1205316-8100
1195216-9991
1185217-8100
1175117-99811
1165118-894411
1155018-991621
1145019-892521
1135020-788732
1124920-88212430
1114820-9741456
1104821-86718870
1094721-9582210090
1084722-8462714013001
1074622-9373015116001
1064623-82629182201120
1054523-91731203223130
1044524-8928225245205000
1034424-94222082583070010
1024425-821718112013601110200
1014325-90101313161790152030
1004326-806814919132184105010
994226-9035144181431873090200
984227-812121141461512601213000
974127-911809111010169116360100
964128-8006057125161321561002000
954028-90032412213145131114251000
943928-1000211100811991417410310
933929-90100704711414159168300
923930-8000402411111914181572000
913830-900020190631415201683100
903730-10001006031117162217104100
893731-90000410629182319114100
883631-10000020021391823201362000
873632-901010139172322147210
863532-100000001381623221672000
853533-90000000138162323167200
843433-1000013817242415610
833434-9001391925251341
823334-10001411222822102
813335-90016142729184
803336-800282133279
793236-901415303416
783136-100029244024
773137-9005174236
763037-1002124046
753038-90183358
743039-8053065
732939-9032275
722940-821683
712840-911188
702740-1001090
692741-90793
682742-8694
672541-11298
662542-10397
652543-9298
642544-8397
6-63100
Total:343334334433434344443333333333