New Jersey Devils Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Beat San Jose 3-2, playoff odds up 4 to 50.5%
4 points   2 2-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 +3.9
+0.5
+0.4
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)*+0.3
+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
NY Islanders vs San Jose*-0.2-1.1*-0.5*-0.3*-0.3+0.5
-0.0*-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Columbus+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto-0.0-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New Jersey finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
118-160In98.8%100244*
1175217-9In95.7991115*
1165218-8In98.7991155*
1155219-7In92.59721253*
1145119-8In90.79612410*
1135019-9In87.99433487*
1125020-8In82.793430770*
1115021-7In75.891641,005*
1104921-8In67.6868701,304*
1094821-9In60.483107001,695*
1084822-8In47.0741412002,329*
1074722-9In37.3671815012,880*
1064723-8In27.15822190203,575*
1054623-9In17.647262413004,499*
1044523-10In9.239282724005,335*
1034524-9In4.1273131370106,470*
1024525-8In1.61931337100107,557*
1014425-9100.0%0.5123031111402008,951*
1004325-10In0.162728151814010,182*
994326-999.90.0322222022371011,158*
984226-1099.8No11616232461020012,582*
974227-999.4No112925231115410013,910*
964127-1097.9No08522201619820014,805*
954128-994.4No0521914212113510015,619*
944028-1087.9No0311492320189300016,582*
934029-976.4No1010421172215720016,584*
923929-1059.9No10621812222112510017,101*
913930-941.7No003114717241910410017,115*
903830-1025.6No010103112224188200016,631*
893831-913.4No0106161525251561016,340*
883731-106.4No0030392026221231015,393*
873732-92.7No010151324271882014,571*
863632-101.0No01027182726154113,369*
853633-90.3No00013112329229212,308*
843533-100.1No0001616282916311,167*
833534-90.0No00021024332379,969*
823434-100.0No0016183331118,773*
813435-9OutNo003112838197,612*
803335-10OutNo0172441276,399*
793336-9OutNo0141841375,382*
783236-10OutNo021239474,517*
773237-9OutNo01834563,526*
763137-10OutNo0629652,886*
753138-9OutNo00324732,255*
743038-10OutNo0119801,720*
733039-9OutNo116831,358*
722939-10OutNo0110891,040*
712940-9OutNo0693826*
702840-10OutNo595583*
692841-9OutNo0397427*
682842-8OutNo199310*
672742-9OutNo199226*
662743-8OutNo298161*
652643-9OutNo10093*
642543-10OutNo19968*
4-63OutNo100158*
Total:50.5%2.8%6767676666666666351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 -0.8
Detroit 3 Carolina 2 -0.1
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders vs San Jose+0.0*+0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.1-0.1
Arizona vs Boston-0.0+0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.0-0.0
Chicago vs Columbus-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto+0.0*+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville+0.0-0.0-0.1*+0.1*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120-160100
1195316-9982
1185317-8973
1175217-99631
1165218-8991
1155219-792521
1145119-891612
1135019-988633
1125020-88311430
1115021-7761564
1104921-8681870700
1094821-960221007000
1084822-8472714012000
1074722-9372917114001
1064723-82730201171020
1054623-918292232131300
1044523-1092924522524000
1034524-9423228247370010
1024525-8217191221127090010
1014425-90111515151610013102000
1004325-100610179181421531400
994326-9036174171631663070100
984226-10131321417714106091200
974227-91110091411101310113240100
964127-100080591351514214580200
954128-900425142131651291214100
944028-1000312120814981215493000
934029-91019049134131481472000
923929-10100625141101012171472000
913930-9000312120741415191572100
903830-1001019031108172116831000
893831-9010051063101822181041000
883731-1000030031410182319125200
873732-900101014101823211362000
863632-1001000139162322157200
853633-900000139172323157200
843533-1000013917242315610
833534-900014101926231341
823434-10000151223272192
813435-900016152729174
803335-1000292132268
793336-9001515313416
783236-10029253925
773237-9015194135
763137-1002133847
753138-900193456
743038-10042967
733039-9032473
722939-10011880
712940-911287
702840-100792
692841-90693
682741-10496
672742-9496
662743-8298
652643-9100
642543-10397
4-63100
Total:333433343343333334444433443444