Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.6 to 44.3%

4 points 2 3-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	*-0.2
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)					*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Montreal vs Detroit	+4.4+3.8+4.1-1.0-1.1-5.3		+0.5+0.6+0.4-0.4*-0.2-0.6		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.6
Ottawa vs Nashville					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto					+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

117	-158						In		99.5	%	100																212	*
116		52	17		-	8	In		95.7		98	1	1														115	*
115		52	18		-	7	In		94.0		97	1	1														150	*
114		51	18		-	8	In		93.2		96	2	2														236	*
113		50	18		-	9	In		90.1		95	3	2														345	*
112		50	19		-	8	In		86.2		93	4	3														485	*
111		49	19		-	9	In		78.6		92	5	4														644	*
110		49	20		-	8	In		66.5		85	8	8														933	*
109		48	20		-	9	In		58.6		79	11	9	0	0												1,262	*
108		48	21		-	8	In		47.7		72	13	14	0	1												1,626	*
107		47	21		-	9	In		37.1		65	17	16	0	1												2,083	*
106		47	22		-	8	In		27.5		57	20	21	0	2												2,856	*
105		46	22		-	9	In		17.3		46	23	27	1	3		0										3,441	*
104		46	23		-	8	In		9.3		37	27	29	2	5		1										4,232	*
103		45	23		-	9	In		4.7		27	28	32	3	9	0	1										5,166	*
102		45	24		-	8	In		1.5		18	27	35	5	13	0	2	0									6,389	*
101		44	24		-	9	In		0.6		12	25	33	9	18	0	3	0									7,553	*
100		44	25		-	8	100.0	%	0.1		6	22	30	12	22	1	6	1	0								8,702	*
99		43	25		-	9	99.8		No		4	17	24	17	25	3	9	2	0								9,969	*
98		43	26		-	8	99.6		No		1	14	16	19	28	5	13	3	0	0							11,364	*
97		42	26		-	9	99.0		No		1	9	10	20	26	10	18	6	1	0							12,515	*
96		42	27		-	8	97.1		No		0	5	5	19	21	14	23	10	2	0	0						13,642	*
95		41	27		-	9	93.5		No		0	3	2	15	15	18	25	16	5	1	0	0					14,979	*
94		41	28		-	8	85.7		No		0	2	1	11	9	19	23	22	11	3	1	0		0			15,347	*
93		40	28		-	9	72.8		No			1	0	7	4	17	18	24	17	8	2	0	0				16,346	*
92		40	29		-	8	56.9		No			0	0	4	2	14	12	24	23	14	5	1	0	0			16,848	*
91		39	29		-	9	38.0		No			0	0	2	1	10	7	18	26	21	11	4	1	0	0		17,072	*
90		38	29		-	10	22.6		No			0	0	1	0	6	3	12	23	26	18	8	2	0	0		16,954	*
89		38	30		-	9	11.9		No			0		1	0	4	1	7	16	25	24	15	6	2	0		16,994	*
88		37	30		-	10	5.3		No			0		0	0	2	0	3	10	20	27	22	12	4	1	0	16,397	*
87		37	31		-	9	2.1		No					0		1	0	1	5	13	23	27	20	8	2	0	15,780	*
86		37	32		-	8	0.8		No					0		0	0	0	2	8	17	27	26	14	4	1	14,640	*
85		36	32		-	9	0.2		No					0		0		0	1	3	11	23	29	23	9	1	14,046	*
84		35	32		-	10	0.1		No							0			0	1	6	17	28	29	15	3	12,407	*
83		35	33		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	10	24	33	23	7	11,517	*
82		35	34		-	8	Out		No										0	0	1	7	18	32	31	11	10,088	*
81		34	34		-	9	Out		No											0	0	3	12	30	36	18	8,691	*
80		33	34		-	10	Out		No											0	0	1	7	24	41	27	7,630	*
79		33	35		-	9	Out		No												0	1	3	18	42	36	6,398	*
78		32	35		-	10	Out		No													0	2	12	39	47	5,373	*
77		32	36		-	9	Out		No													0	1	7	36	55	4,377	*
76		31	36		-	10	Out		No														0	4	30	65	3,559	*
75		31	37		-	9	Out		No														0	3	23	74	2,970	*
74		30	37		-	10	Out		No														0	2	18	79	2,380	*
73		30	38		-	9	Out		No														0	1	14	85	1,773	*
72		29	38		-	10	Out		No															0	12	88	1,406	*
71		29	39		-	9	Out		No															0	7	93	1,006	*
70		28	39		-	10	Out		No															0	5	95	835	*
69		28	40		-	9	Out		No																3	97	602	*
68		28	41		-	8	Out		No																2	98	451	*
67		27	41		-	9	Out		No																1	99	312	*
66		27	42		-	8	Out		No																1	99	188	*
65		26	42		-	9	Out		No																2	98	158	*
63	-64						Out		No																	100	158	*
62		24	43		-	10	Out		No																2	98	42	*
4	-61						Out		No																	100	96	*

Total:							44.3	%	2.0	%	4	5	5	5	6	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.0
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal vs Detroit	-0.9-0.8-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.1
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0
Arizona vs Boston	-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Florida vs Dallas	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-158						100
120		54	15		-	8	95	5
117	-119						100
116		52	17		-	8	96	3	1		1
115		52	18		-	7	94	3	1		1
114		51	18		-	8	93	3	2		2
113		50	18		-	9	90	5	3		2
112		50	19		-	8	86	7	4		3
111		49	19		-	9	79	13	5	0	4
110		49	20		-	8	66	18	8		8
109		48	20		-	9	59	21	11	0	9	0	0		0
108		48	21		-	8	48	25	12	0	14	0	0		1
107		47	21		-	9	37	28	17	1	16	1	0		1
106		47	22		-	8	28	29	18	2	20	1	0		2
105		46	22		-	9	17	29	20	3	24	2	1		3				0
104		46	23		-	8	9	28	22	4	24	4	2		5	0			1
103		45	23		-	9	5	23	21	7	24	8	3	0	8	0	0		1
102		45	24		-	8	2	17	17	10	23	12	5	0	12	1	0		2		0
101		44	24		-	9	1	11	12	13	16	17	9	0	16	2	0		3	0	0
100		44	25		-	8	0	6	8	14	11	19	11	1	18	3	1		6	0	1		0
99		43	25		-	9		4	5	13	5	18	14	3	19	7	3	0	9	0	2		0
98		43	26		-	8		1	2	11	2	14	14	6	16	12	5	0	12	1	3	0	0	0
97		42	26		-	9		1	1	8	0	9	11	9	11	15	9	0	16	3	6	0	1	0
96		42	27		-	8		0	0	5	0	5	7	12	5	16	12	2	17	6	10	0	2	0	0
95		41	27		-	9		0	0	3	0	2	4	11	2	13	14	4	14	10	14	1	5	1	0	0
94		41	28		-	8		0	0	2		1	1	9	0	8	11	8	9	13	18	4	10	3	1	0		0
93		40	28		-	9				1		0	1	7	0	4	7	10	4	14	15	9	16	8	2	0	0
92		40	29		-	8				0		0	0	4	0	2	3	11	1	11	10	14	19	15	7	2	0	0	0
91		39	29		-	9				0		0	0	2		1	1	9	0	7	4	14	15	21	16	8	2	1	0
90		38	29		-	10				0		0	0	1		0	1	6	0	3	1	11	8	18	22	17	8	3	1	0
89		38	30		-	9				0				1		0	0	3	0	1	0	6	3	10	19	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
88		37	30		-	10				0				0		0	0	2		0	0	3	1	4	10	19	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
87		37	31		-	9								0			0	1		0		1	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	7	2	0	0
86		37	32		-	8								0				0		0		0	0	0	1	4	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0
85		36	32		-	9								0				0				0		0	0	1	3	8	17	23	23	16	7	2	0	0
84		35	32		-	10												0							0	0	1	3	9	18	24	24	14	6	1	0
83		35	33		-	9												0							0	0	0	1	3	9	20	26	23	13	4	0
82		35	34		-	8																				0	0	0	1	4	13	22	27	22	9	2
81		34	34		-	9																						0	0	2	6	16	27	29	17	4
80		33	34		-	10																						0	0	0	2	9	22	31	26	9
79		33	35		-	9																								0	1	5	14	30	35	15
78		32	35		-	10																								0	0	2	9	25	40	24
77		32	36		-	9																									0	1	5	19	40	35
76		31	36		-	10																										0	2	12	40	46
75		31	37		-	9																										0	1	8	34	57
74		30	37		-	10																										0	0	5	28	66
73		30	38		-	9																											0	3	22	75
72		29	38		-	10																											0	1	19	80
71		29	39		-	9																												1	12	87
70		28	39		-	10																												0	8	92
69		28	40		-	9																												0	6	94
68		28	41		-	8																													4	96
67		27	41		-	9																													4	96
66		27	42		-	8																													3	97
65		26	42		-	9																													4	96
64		26	43		-	8																													1	99
63		25	43		-	9																														100
62		24	43		-	10																													2	98
4	-61																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	3	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5