Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 51.3%

4 points 1 1-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0					-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	+0.4+0.4-0.4-0.8-1.3-0.1				+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Vancouver vs St. Louis					+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Florida vs Dallas	-5.0-0.0-0.8+3.6+3.7+4.0		-0.8-0.4-0.4+0.6+0.5+0.7		-0.5*-0.0-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Chicago vs Columbus					-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Arizona vs Boston					-0.0+0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-160						In		Yes		100																113	*
119		54	17		-	7	In		98.2	%	98	2															56	*
118		53	17		-	8	In		Yes		100																64	*
117		52	17		-	9	In		96.9		99		1														127	*
116		52	18		-	8	In		95.1		97	2	1														184	*
115		52	19		-	7	In		94.4		97	2	2														250	*
114		51	19		-	8	In		91.2		95	2	3														410	*
113		50	19		-	9	In		84.9		92	4	5														515	*
112		49	19		-	10	In		81.4		91	5	4														714	*
111		50	21		-	7	In		75.6		86	8	6		0												998	*
110		49	21		-	8	In		67.2		83	8	9		0												1,281	*
109		48	21		-	9	In		57.7		77	11	12		1												1,736	*
108		48	22		-	8	In		46.9		69	14	16	0	1												2,277	*
107		47	22		-	9	In		37.8		61	16	20	0	2		0										2,846	*
106		47	23		-	8	In		25.8		52	21	24	0	2		0										3,637	*
105		46	23		-	9	In		14.9		41	23	30	1	4		0										4,431	*
104		45	23		-	10	In		9.4		33	24	33	2	8	0	0	0									5,566	*
103		45	24		-	9	In		3.9		23	26	36	4	11	0	1	0									6,426	*
102		45	25		-	8	In		1.3		15	25	35	7	15	0	2	0									7,634	*
101		44	25		-	9	100.0	%	0.4		9	23	33	10	19	1	4	0	0								8,861	*
100		44	26		-	8	100.0		0.1		5	19	29	14	24	1	7	1	0								10,132	*
99		43	26		-	9	99.9		0.0		2	15	22	18	27	3	11	2	0								11,212	*
98		42	26		-	10	99.6		No		1	11	15	19	28	6	16	4	0								12,597	*
97		42	27		-	9	99.0		No		0	7	8	19	27	11	20	7	1	0							13,671	*
96		41	27		-	10	97.4		No		0	5	4	17	22	14	24	11	2	0	0						14,837	*
95		41	28		-	9	93.9		No		0	3	2	13	16	18	26	17	5	1	0						15,753	*
94		40	28		-	10	87.6		No		0	1	1	9	10	18	26	22	10	2	0	0					16,434	*
93		40	29		-	9	76.6		No			1	0	6	5	18	21	26	16	6	1	0	0				16,766	*
92		39	29		-	10	61.9		No			0	0	4	2	15	15	26	23	11	3	1	0				17,282	*
91		39	30		-	9	45.6		No			0	0	2	1	10	9	23	27	18	7	2	0	0			16,874	*
90		38	30		-	10	30.4		No			0		1	0	7	5	17	27	24	13	4	1	0			16,927	*
89		38	31		-	9	16.9		No			0		0	0	4	2	10	22	29	21	9	2	0			16,092	*
88		37	31		-	10	8.9		No			0		0	0	2	1	6	16	27	27	16	4	1			15,567	*
87		37	32		-	9	4.2		No					0		1	0	3	11	23	30	22	8	2			14,308	*
86		36	32		-	10	1.5		No					0	0	1	0	1	5	16	29	30	15	3			13,460	*
85		36	33		-	9	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	3	11	25	32	23	6			12,470	*
84		35	33		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	1	6	19	33	30	11			11,164	*
83		35	34		-	9	0.0		No							0		0	0	3	13	30	37	17			9,919	*
82		34	34		-	10	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	25	40	25			8,683	*
81		34	35		-	9	Out		No										0	1	5	18	42	34			7,687	*
80		33	35		-	10	Out		No										0	0	2	14	40	44			6,461	*
79		33	36		-	9	Out		No											0	1	9	36	54			5,379	*
78		33	37		-	8	Out		No												0	6	31	63			4,380	*
77		32	37		-	9	Out		No												0	4	25	71			3,628	*
76		32	38		-	8	Out		No												0	2	21	77			2,834	*
75		31	38		-	9	Out		No												0	1	17	81			2,290	*
74		30	38		-	10	Out		No													1	13	87			1,757	*
73		30	39		-	9	Out		No													0	11	89			1,316	*
72		29	39		-	10	Out		No														7	93			1,022	*
71		29	40		-	9	Out		No														5	95			766	*
70		28	40		-	10	Out		No														4	96			601	*
69		28	41		-	9	Out		No														3	97			389	*
68		28	42		-	8	Out		No														2	98			286	*
67		27	42		-	9	Out		No														1	99			213	*
4	-66						Out		No															100			457	*

Total:							51.3	%	2.7	%	5	5	6	5	7	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9			351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	+0.0
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Florida vs Dallas	+1.1+0.1+0.2-0.8-0.8-0.9
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.0+0.2+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Boston	-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.2-0.0
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1-0.1+0.0
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.0+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.0+0.0
Washington vs Carolina	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-160						100
119		54	17		-	7	98		2
118		53	17		-	8	100
117		52	17		-	9	97	2			1
116		52	18		-	8	95	2	2		1
115		52	19		-	7	94	2	2		2
114		51	19		-	8	91	4	2		3
113		50	19		-	9	85	7	4		5
112		49	19		-	10	81	10	5		4
111		50	21		-	7	76	11	8		6	0			0
110		49	21		-	8	67	16	8	0	9				0
109		48	21		-	9	58	19	11	0	12	0			1
108		48	22		-	8	47	22	14	0	16	0	0		1
107		47	22		-	9	38	24	15	1	20	1	0		2				0
106		47	23		-	8	26	26	19	1	23	1	0		2				0
105		46	23		-	9	15	26	20	3	27	3	1		4				0
104		45	23		-	10	9	24	20	4	28	5	2		8	0	0		0		0
103		45	24		-	9	4	19	20	6	28	8	4		10	0	0		1	0	0
102		45	25		-	8	1	13	16	9	23	12	7	0	14	1	0		2		0
101		44	25		-	9	0	9	12	11	17	16	10	0	18	2	1		4	0	0		0
100		44	26		-	8	0	5	8	12	10	18	13	1	20	4	1		6	0	1		0
99		43	26		-	9	0	2	4	10	5	17	15	3	20	7	3	0	10	0	2		0
98		42	26		-	10		1	2	9	2	13	14	6	17	12	6	0	14	1	4	0	0
97		42	27		-	9		0	1	6	0	8	11	8	11	15	10	1	16	3	7	0	1	0
96		41	27		-	10		0	0	4	0	4	7	10	5	17	13	2	17	7	11	1	2	0	0
95		41	28		-	9		0	0	2		2	3	10	2	14	14	5	14	12	15	2	5	1	0
94		40	28		-	10		0	0	1		1	1	8	0	10	10	8	9	17	17	5	9	3	0	0
93		40	29		-	9				1		0	0	6	0	5	6	11	4	18	15	11	15	7	2	0	0	0
92		39	29		-	10				0		0	0	4		2	3	11	1	14	9	18	17	13	6	2	0	0	0
91		39	30		-	9				0		0	0	2		1	1	9	0	9	3	20	13	18	13	7	2	1	0	0
90		38	30		-	10				0			0	1		0	0	7	0	5	1	16	7	15	19	15	9	3	1	0	0
89		38	31		-	9				0				0		0	0	4		2	0	10	2	8	16	21	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
88		37	31		-	10				0				0		0	0	2		1	0	6	1	3	9	16	22	20	13	6	2	0	0
87		37	32		-	9								0			0	1		0		3	0	1	3	8	16	22	21	15	7	2	0	0	0
86		36	32		-	10								0		0		1		0		1	0	0	1	2	8	16	23	22	16	8	2	0	0
85		36	33		-	9								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	3	8	16	23	24	17	7	2	0	0
84		35	33		-	10												0				0		0	0	0	1	3	9	17	24	23	15	7	2	0
83		35	34		-	9												0				0				0	0	1	3	9	19	26	24	14	4	0
82		34	34		-	10																0						0	1	4	11	22	28	23	10	2
81		34	35		-	9																						0	0	1	5	15	27	29	18	5
80		33	35		-	10																							0	0	2	9	21	32	27	9
79		33	36		-	9																							0	0	1	4	14	30	35	16
78		33	37		-	8																								0	0	2	9	24	41	25
77		32	37		-	9																									0	1	4	18	41	36
76		32	38		-	8																									0	0	2	13	38	47
75		31	38		-	9																										0	1	8	35	56
74		30	38		-	10																											0	5	30	65
73		30	39		-	9																										0	0	3	24	73
72		29	39		-	10																												2	17	81
71		29	40		-	9																												1	12	88
70		28	40		-	10																												0	9	90
69		28	41		-	9																													6	94
68		28	42		-	8																													5	95
67		27	42		-	9																													3	97
66		27	43		-	8																													2	98
65		25	42		-	11																													2	98
62	-64																																			100
61		25	46		-	7																													5	95
4	-60																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4