Columbus Blue Jackets Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Lost to Toronto 1-2 (so), playoff odds down 1 to 39.9%
3 points   1 3-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)-1.4
*-0.2
*-0.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Chicago vs Columbus-5.0-1.0*-0.7+2.8+4.1+4.2
-0.5*-0.2*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.5
-0.6-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.5+0.5
Arizona vs Boston+0.4*-0.1*+0.3*-0.5*+0.6-0.4
NY Islanders vs San Jose-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
116-157In98.6%100207*
1155217-8In98.2991110*
1145218-7In92.99613154*
1135118-8In90.99622264*
1125018-9In82.89154360*
1115019-8In77.890540491*
1105020-7In70.08776646*
1094920-8In58.6821080922*
1084921-7In48.372161211,274*
1074821-8In37.8671615011,691*
1064721-9In26.1562319022,078*
1054722-8In17.54725241302,717*
1044622-9In8.935292925003,414*
1034623-8In4.327293248014,324*
1024523-9In1.41731337110105,270*
1014524-8In0.710293110161306,399*
1004424-9100.0%0.162528152024007,386*
994425-899.9No32122202337108,704*
984325-999.8No11515232571220010,112*
974326-899.1No01192423111651011,151*
964226-997.7No07422201620920012,553*
954126-1093.9No0421714212214510013,675*
944127-986.6No0211382221201031014,951*
934128-874.5No108422172316720015,565*
924028-956.3No00521711212214520016,407*
913928-1039.2No003012617242111410016,955*
903929-923.3No0108311212518931017,137*
893829-1011.7No01041516252416720017,118*
883830-95.2No0020282026231241016,964*
873730-102.2No010141223282082016,224*
863731-90.6No000017172726155115,652*
853631-100.3No0000131122292310214,936*
843632-90.1No00001616283016313,448*
833532-10OutNo0039243423712,539*
823533-9OutNo0151733321211,273*
813433-10OutNo0003112837209,943*
803434-9OutNo0172341288,689*
793334-10OutNo0041642387,666*
783335-9OutNo021140476,521*
773235-10OutNo01835575,388*
763236-9OutNo00430664,535*
753136-10OutNo0325723,649*
743137-9OutNo0218802,962*
733037-10OutNo0112872,310*
723038-9OutNo0011891,796*
712938-10OutNo08911,412*
702939-9OutNo06941,031*
692839-10OutNo0496769*
682840-9OutNo298631*
672740-10OutNo298416*
662741-9OutNo199297*
652641-10OutNo199186*
3-64OutNo100468*
Total:39.9%1.5%3545565667777889351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)*+0.2
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Columbus+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.9-0.9
NY Islanders vs San Jose+0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville+0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Arizona vs Boston-0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.1+0.0
Washington vs Carolina*-0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto+0.0*+0.1*-0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120-157100
1195415-8955
117-118100
1165216-9973
1155217-89811
1145218-793313
1135118-891522
1125018-983954
1115019-87813540
1105020-7701776
1094920-85923100800
1084921-748231601201
1074821-8383016115101
1064721-9263021218102
1054722-81730223222130
1044622-992624524525000
1034623-842222824747001
1024523-91161911211360100010
1014524-81101514151690152130
1004424-906915101814117324000
994425-83516418163176370100
984325-913131141661410701112000
974326-801100913119141101424010
964226-90060491351514215590200
954126-1000424132121651391315100
944127-9002121108139813164103100
934128-8101804913413148158300
924028-900052413110912181583000
913928-10000302110641414201673100
903929-900101703110817221793100
893829-1001004105310182219114100
883830-900020021310182320136200
873730-100010101391723211572100
863731-90000001381623231572000
853631-100000000138162324157200
843632-90000013817242416610
833532-100001491826241341
823533-90001411212922102
813433-100025142730184
803434-9000282132279
793334-1001414303516
783335-90028254025
773235-10014184136
763236-902123947
753136-100193555
743137-9052866
733037-10022176
723038-9021781
712938-10011485
702939-90990
692839-100793
682840-9595
672740-10397
662741-9199
652641-10298
3-64100
Total:122322232333333334444444445556