Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Beat Anaheim 5-2, playoff odds up 4.7 to 61%

6 points 3 1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	+4.3		+0.8		+0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Los Angeles vs Minnesota					+0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Vancouver vs St. Louis					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.5+0.5+0.1-0.7-0.1-0.5				+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Florida vs Dallas	+0.5+0.4+0.3-0.4-0.2-0.5				+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0
Chicago vs Columbus	-0.5+0.1-0.3+0.5-0.0+0.4				-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

118	-162						In		Yes		100																542	*
117		51	18		-	9	In		96.8	%	99	0	1														247	*
116		50	18		-	10	In		96.1		99	1	1														383	*
115		50	19		-	9	In		93.5		96	2	2														538	*
114		50	20		-	8	In		92.2		96	2	2		0												706	*
113		49	20		-	9	In		86.4		94	3	3	0													980	*
112		49	21		-	8	In		83.3		91	4	5		0												1,359	*
111		48	21		-	9	In		76.4		88	5	7		0												1,734	*
110		48	22		-	8	In		66.6		82	9	9	0	0												2,265	*
109		47	22		-	9	In		59.1		77	11	12	0	1												2,880	*
108		47	23		-	8	In		46.5		69	14	16	0	1		0										3,698	*
107		46	23		-	9	In		36.7		62	17	19	0	1		0										4,381	*
106		46	24		-	8	In		26.0		52	20	25	1	2		0										5,413	*
105		45	24		-	9	In		15.8		42	23	29	1	4		0										6,495	*
104		45	25		-	8	In		9.5		32	25	33	2	7	0	1	0									7,665	*
103		44	25		-	9	In		4.2		24	26	35	4	10	0	1	0									8,703	*
102		44	26		-	8	In		1.7		16	26	35	7	14	0	2	0									10,318	*
101		43	26		-	9	100.0	%	0.5		10	24	33	10	19	1	4	0	0								11,341	*
100		42	26		-	10	100.0		0.1		5	20	28	15	24	2	6	1	0								12,750	*
99		42	27		-	9	99.9		0.0		3	15	22	18	27	3	10	2	0								13,756	*
98		41	27		-	10	99.7		No		1	12	15	20	28	6	14	3	0	0							14,794	*
97		41	28		-	9	99.1		No		0	8	9	20	26	10	20	6	1	0							15,686	*
96		40	28		-	10	97.8		No		0	5	5	18	22	15	24	10	2	0	0						16,473	*
95		40	29		-	9	94.5		No		0	3	2	15	15	18	26	16	5	1	0		0				16,939	*
94		39	29		-	10	88.7		No			2	1	10	9	20	25	22	9	2	0	0					17,020	*
93		39	30		-	9	78.1		No		0	1	0	7	5	18	21	26	15	5	1	0					16,663	*
92		38	30		-	10	63.8		No			0	0	4	2	16	15	26	22	11	3	0	0	0			16,860	*
91		38	31		-	9	46.9		No			0	0	2	1	12	10	22	27	18	7	2	0	0			16,136	*
90		37	31		-	10	31.3		No			0		1	0	8	5	17	27	24	13	4	1	0			15,440	*
89		37	32		-	9	18.3		No			0		1	0	5	2	11	23	28	20	8	2	0			14,549	*
88		36	32		-	10	9.2		No					0	0	3	1	6	17	28	26	15	4	1			13,733	*
87		36	33		-	9	4.4		No			0		0		1	0	3	11	23	30	22	9	1			12,039	*
86		35	33		-	10	1.8		No					0		1	0	1	6	17	29	29	14	3			11,250	*
85		35	34		-	9	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	3	11	25	33	22	6			9,906	*
84		34	34		-	10	0.3		No							0	0	0	1	7	19	33	30	11			8,667	*
83		34	35		-	9	0.0		No							0		0	0	3	13	30	36	17			7,484	*
82		33	35		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	0	2	9	26	40	24			6,371	*
81		33	36		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	1	4	21	42	32			5,316	*
80		32	36		-	10	Out		No										0	0	2	15	40	43			4,538	*
79		32	37		-	9	Out		No												1	10	37	51			3,662	*
78		31	37		-	10	Out		No												1	6	31	62			2,918	*
77		31	38		-	9	Out		No												0	3	27	70			2,199	*
76		31	39		-	8	Out		No													2	22	76			1,810	*
75		30	39		-	9	Out		No												0	1	17	82			1,379	*
74		30	40		-	8	Out		No													0	12	88			1,050	*
73		29	40		-	9	Out		No													1	11	88			741	*
72		28	40		-	10	Out		No													0	6	93			564	*
71		28	41		-	9	Out		No														4	96			423	*
70		27	41		-	10	Out		No														4	96			275	*
69		27	42		-	9	Out		No														0	100			211	*
68		27	43		-	8	Out		No														2	98			161	*
67		25	42		-	11	Out		No														1	99			94	*
66		25	43		-	10	Out		No														3	97			79	*
6	-65						Out		No															100			156	*

Total:							61.0	%	4.5	%	8	7	9	6	8	6	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	6			351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	-0.9
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	+0.0
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1*-0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.1
Florida vs Dallas	-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Boston	+0.0-0.1-0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.0
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

118	-162						100
117		51	18		-	9	97	2	0		1
116		50	18		-	10	96	3	1		1
115		50	19		-	9	93	2	2		2
114		50	20		-	8	92	4	2		2				0
113		49	20		-	9	86	7	3		3		0
112		49	21		-	8	83	8	4		5				0
111		48	21		-	9	76	11	5		7				0
110		48	22		-	8	67	16	9	0	9	0	0		0
109		47	22		-	9	59	18	10	0	12	0	0		1
108		47	23		-	8	46	23	14	0	16	0	0		1				0
107		46	23		-	9	37	25	17	1	19	1	0		1				0
106		46	24		-	8	26	26	19	1	24	1	1		2				0
105		45	24		-	9	16	26	21	2	26	3	1		4	0			0
104		45	25		-	8	10	23	21	4	28	5	2		7	0	0		1		0
103		44	25		-	9	4	20	19	6	27	8	4	0	10	0	0		1		0
102		44	26		-	8	2	14	17	9	23	12	7	0	13	1	0		2	0	0
101		43	26		-	9	0	9	13	11	17	16	10	0	17	2	1		4	0	0		0
100		42	26		-	10	0	5	8	12	10	18	13	1	20	4	2		6	0	1		0
99		42	27		-	9	0	3	4	11	5	17	15	3	20	8	3	0	9	0	2		0
98		41	27		-	10		1	2	9	2	14	14	6	16	12	6	0	13	1	3	0	0	0
97		41	28		-	9		0	1	7	0	9	11	9	11	15	10	1	17	3	6	0	1	0
96		40	28		-	10		0	0	4	0	5	7	11	5	17	13	2	17	7	9	0	2	0	0
95		40	29		-	9		0	0	3		2	4	11	2	14	14	5	14	12	14	2	5	1	0		0
94		39	29		-	10			0	2		1	1	9	0	9	11	9	9	16	17	5	8	2	0	0
93		39	30		-	9		0	0	1		0	0	6	0	5	7	12	4	17	15	11	14	6	2	0	0	0
92		38	30		-	10				0		0	0	4	0	2	4	12	1	14	9	17	16	12	6	2	0	0
91		38	31		-	9				0		0	0	2		1	1	10	0	9	3	19	13	17	13	6	2	1	0	0
90		37	31		-	10				0				1		0	0	7	0	5	1	16	7	15	18	15	9	3	1	0	0
89		37	32		-	9				0				1		0	0	5		2	0	11	2	9	16	20	17	10	5	1	0	0
88		36	32		-	10								0		0	0	3		1	0	6	0	3	8	16	21	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
87		36	33		-	9				0				0			0	1		0		3	0	1	3	8	16	21	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
86		35	33		-	10								0				1		0		1	0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	15	8	2	0	0
85		35	34		-	9								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	8	2	0	0
84		34	34		-	10												0		0		0			0	0	1	3	8	17	23	24	16	6	1	0
83		34	35		-	9												0				0				0	0	1	3	9	19	26	23	14	4	1
82		33	35		-	10												0				0						0	1	4	10	22	29	22	10	2
81		33	36		-	9												0									0	0	0	1	6	15	27	29	17	5
80		32	36		-	10																						0	0	0	2	9	21	33	26	9
79		32	37		-	9																								0	1	4	14	30	34	16
78		31	37		-	10																									0	2	8	25	40	25
77		31	38		-	9																									0	0	6	19	39	36
76		31	39		-	8																								0		0	2	13	38	47
75		30	39		-	9																										0	1	9	33	56
74		30	40		-	8																											0	4	29	66
73		29	40		-	9																												3	21	75
72		28	40		-	10																												2	19	79
71		28	41		-	9																												0	12	87
70		27	41		-	10																												0	13	87
69		27	42		-	9																													4	96
68		27	43		-	8																													3	97
67		25	42		-	11																												1	1	98
66		25	43		-	10																													4	96
65		25	44		-	9																													2	98
64		25	45		-	8																														100
63		23	44		-	11																													5	95
6	-62																																			100

Total:							5	4	4	3	5	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2