Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Lost to Winnipeg 0-3, playoff odds down 4.2 to 57.6%

5 points 2 1-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	-5.1		-1.3		-0.5
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2					+0.1
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5					+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis					-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary vs Edmonton	+4.4+3.9+3.7-1.3-1.4-5.2		+0.9+0.7+0.5-0.3-0.4-1.0		+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.4+0.1+0.4-0.1-0.5-0.4				+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs Boston					-0.0-0.0-0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

119	-161						In		99.6	%	100																237	*
118		53	18		-	7	In		99.1		99	1															111	*
117		52	18		-	8	In		98.4		99	1	1														192	*
116		51	18		-	9	In		98.0		99	0	0														249	*
115		51	19		-	8	In		94.2		96	3	1														359	*
114		51	20		-	7	In		90.0		95	4	1														550	*
113		50	20		-	8	In		83.6		90	5	5														685	*
112		49	20		-	9	In		81.8		90	6	4		0												988	*
111		49	21		-	8	In		75.2		89	8	4		0												1,308	*
110		48	21		-	9	In		66.6		82	12	6		0												1,732	*
109		48	22		-	8	In		57.0		75	14	10	0	0												2,290	*
108		47	22		-	9	In		48.1		69	19	12	0	1		0										2,778	*
107		47	23		-	8	In		36.1		61	21	16	0	1		0										3,653	*
106		46	23		-	9	In		26.0		51	27	20	1	2		0										4,439	*
105		46	24		-	8	In		16.0		43	31	22	1	3	0	0	0									5,534	*
104		45	24		-	9	In		8.5		32	33	27	3	4	0	0										6,327	*
103		44	24		-	10	In		4.5		23	35	29	5	7	0	1										7,819	*
102		44	25		-	9	In		1.9		16	34	30	9	10	0	1	0									8,803	*
101		43	25		-	10	100.0	%	0.5		9	32	30	13	14	1	2	0	0								10,136	*
100		43	26		-	9	100.0		0.1		5	28	25	18	18	2	4	0	0								11,252	*
99		43	27		-	8	100.0		0.0		3	23	20	23	21	4	6	1	0								12,764	*
98		42	27		-	9	99.9		No		1	17	14	25	23	7	10	2	0	0							13,585	*
97		41	27		-	10	99.5		No		0	12	9	26	22	13	14	4	0	0							14,956	*
96		41	28		-	9	98.2		No		0	8	4	26	18	17	17	7	2	0	0						15,587	*
95		40	28		-	10	95.9		No		0	5	2	21	14	22	20	12	3	1	0	0					16,609	*
94		40	29		-	9	90.1		No		0	3	1	16	9	26	19	17	8	2	0	0					16,789	*
93		39	29		-	10	80.8		No			1	0	11	4	25	17	21	13	5	1	0					17,071	*
92		39	30		-	9	67.1		No			1	0	7	2	22	13	22	20	10	3	1	0	0			17,091	*
91		38	30		-	10	50.9		No			0	0	4	1	17	8	20	24	17	6	1	0	0			16,608	*
90		38	31		-	9	34.3		No			0		2	0	12	5	15	25	23	12	4	1	0			16,094	*
89		37	31		-	10	21.0		No			0		1	0	8	2	10	22	27	20	8	2	0			15,440	*
88		37	32		-	9	11.6		No			0		1	0	5	1	5	16	27	26	14	4	1			14,593	*
87		36	32		-	10	6.1		No					0		3	0	3	10	23	30	22	8	1			13,718	*
86		36	33		-	9	2.8		No			0		0		2	0	1	6	17	29	28	15	3			12,395	*
85		35	33		-	10	1.2		No			0		0		1	0	0	3	11	26	32	22	6			11,099	*
84		35	34		-	9	0.5		No					0		0	0	0	1	6	20	33	29	10			9,860	*
83		34	34		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	0	3	13	31	36	16			8,867	*
82		34	35		-	9	0.1		No							0		0	0	2	8	26	40	24			7,449	*
81		33	35		-	10	Out		No										0	1	5	20	41	33			6,502	*
80		33	36		-	9	Out		No											0	3	15	41	42			5,323	*
79		32	36		-	10	Out		No											0	1	10	37	52			4,386	*
78		32	37		-	9	Out		No											0	1	6	33	60			3,759	*
77		31	37		-	10	Out		No												0	4	26	70			2,751	*
76		31	38		-	9	Out		No												0	1	23	75			2,272	*
75		30	38		-	10	Out		No												0	1	18	81			1,710	*
74		30	39		-	9	Out		No												0	1	13	86			1,330	*
73		29	39		-	10	Out		No													0	11	89			1,019	*
72		29	40		-	9	Out		No													0	6	94			770	*
71		29	41		-	8	Out		No														4	96			541	*
70		28	41		-	9	Out		No														4	96			424	*
69		28	42		-	8	Out		No														2	98			295	*
68		27	42		-	9	Out		No														2	98			197	*
5	-67						Out		No															100			444	*

Total:							57.6	%	3.5	%	7	8	6	8	6	8	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7			351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 3 Calgary 0	+1.1
New Jersey 3 San Jose 2	-0.1
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs St. Louis	+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1
Los Angeles vs Minnesota	+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary vs Edmonton	-1.0-0.8-0.7*+0.2+0.3+1.1
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Chicago vs Columbus	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1
Arizona vs Boston	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.0
Florida vs Dallas	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0*-0.1+0.0
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo	+0.0-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-161						100
120		53	16		-	9	98	2
119		52	16		-	10	100
118		53	18		-	7	99		1
117		52	18		-	8	98	1	1		1
116		51	18		-	9	98	1	0		0
115		51	19		-	8	94	2	3		1
114		51	20		-	7	90	5	4		1
113		50	20		-	8	84	7	5		5
112		49	20		-	9	82	8	6	0	4				0
111		49	21		-	8	75	13	8		4				0
110		48	21		-	9	67	15	12	0	6				0
109		48	22		-	8	57	18	14	0	10		0		0
108		47	22		-	9	48	21	18	0	11	0	0		1				0
107		47	23		-	8	36	25	20	1	16	0	0		1				0
106		46	23		-	9	26	25	25	2	19	1	1		2				0
105		46	24		-	8	16	27	28	3	21	2	1		3	0	0		0		0
104		45	24		-	9	8	23	28	5	23	4	3		4	0	0		0
103		44	24		-	10	4	19	28	8	22	7	5		7	0	0		1
102		44	25		-	9	2	14	23	12	20	10	8	0	10	0	0		1		0
101		43	25		-	10	1	9	16	15	15	14	12	0	13	1	1		2	0	0		0
100		43	26		-	9	0	5	11	17	9	16	17	1	15	3	2		4	0	0		0
99		43	27		-	8	0	3	7	16	5	15	20	3	16	5	4	0	6	0	1		0
98		42	27		-	9		1	3	14	2	12	18	7	14	10	7	0	9	1	2	0	0	0
97		41	27		-	10		0	1	11	0	8	15	11	9	13	12	1	12	2	4	0	0	0
96		41	28		-	9		0	0	8	0	4	10	16	4	14	15	2	12	5	7	0	2	0	0
95		40	28		-	10		0	0	5	0	2	5	16	1	12	17	5	11	8	11	1	3	1	0	0
94		40	29		-	9		0	0	3		1	2	14	0	8	15	11	7	12	13	4	7	2	0	0		0
93		39	29		-	10				1		0	1	10	0	4	9	15	3	14	12	9	12	6	2	0	0
92		39	30		-	9				1		0	0	7	0	2	5	17	1	12	8	14	14	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
91		38	30		-	10				0		0	0	4		1	2	15	0	8	3	17	12	16	12	6	2	0	0	0
90		38	31		-	9				0			0	2		0	1	11	0	4	1	14	7	15	18	14	8	3	1	0	0
89		37	31		-	10				0				1		0	0	8		2	0	10	3	8	17	20	16	10	4	1	0	0
88		37	32		-	9				0				1		0	0	5		1	0	5	0	3	9	16	21	19	12	6	2	0	0
87		36	32		-	10								0			0	3		0		3	0	1	3	8	17	22	20	14	7	2	0	0
86		36	33		-	9				0				0				2		0		1	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	15	8	2	0	0
85		35	33		-	10				0				0			0	1		0		0			0	1	3	8	17	22	23	15	8	2	0	0
84		35	34		-	9								0				0		0		0			0	0	1	3	8	17	25	23	16	6	2	0
83		34	34		-	10												0				0				0	0	1	3	10	20	26	23	13	4	1
82		34	35		-	9												0				0					0	0	1	4	11	22	29	21	9	2
81		33	35		-	10																						0	0	1	6	16	27	29	17	4
80		33	36		-	9																						0	0	0	2	9	22	32	27	8
79		32	36		-	10																								0	1	4	14	31	33	16
78		32	37		-	9																								0	0	2	9	25	39	25
77		31	37		-	10																									0	0	4	20	41	34
76		31	38		-	9																										0	2	13	37	48
75		30	38		-	10																										0	1	8	35	56
74		30	39		-	9																											1	5	29	65
73		29	39		-	10																											0	3	24	73
72		29	40		-	9																												2	17	82
71		29	41		-	8																												0	13	86
70		28	41		-	9																												0	10	90
69		28	42		-	8																												0	5	95
68		27	42		-	9																													3	97
67		26	42		-	10																													2	98
66		26	43		-	9																													3	97
65		26	44		-	8																													2	98
62	-64																																			100
61		23	45		-	10																													8	92
5	-60																																			100

Total:							3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3