Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 49.6%

4 points 2 2-0

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)					*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo	-5.5-1.6*-0.6+3.9+4.2+4.5		-0.8-0.3-0.1+0.6+0.5+0.7		-0.6-0.2-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.5
Ottawa vs Nashville	-0.5-0.9-0.6+0.3+0.2+0.7				-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Boston	+0.5+0.5-0.2-0.0-0.3-0.5				+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Florida vs Dallas					-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.1
Montreal vs Detroit					+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto					+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

118	-160						In		99.6	%	100																238	*
117		53	18		-	7	In		98.4		98		2														125	*
116		52	18		-	8	In		95.7		99	1	1														187	*
115		51	18		-	9	In		95.4		98	0	2														261	*
114		50	18		-	10	In		92.8		98	1	1														346	*
113		50	19		-	9	In		88.4		95	3	2														561	*
112		50	20		-	8	In		83.3		93	3	3		0												749	*
111		49	20		-	9	In		75.0		89	5	5	0													1,030	*
110		49	21		-	8	In		67.5		86	6	7		0												1,363	*
109		48	21		-	9	In		57.8		80	10	9		0												1,741	*
108		47	21		-	10	In		48.6		74	12	13	0	1		0										2,300	*
107		47	22		-	9	In		37.8		66	17	17	0	1												2,866	*
106		47	23		-	8	In		27.1		58	20	21	0	1		0										3,553	*
105		46	23		-	9	In		16.8		48	23	25	1	3		0										4,403	*
104		46	24		-	8	In		8.6		37	25	30	2	5		0										5,443	*
103		45	24		-	9	In		4.4		28	28	32	3	8	0	1	0									6,475	*
102		44	24		-	10	100.0	%	1.6		19	27	34	6	12	0	2	0	0								7,499	*
101		44	25		-	9	In		0.5		11	26	33	10	16	1	3	0									8,873	*
100		43	25		-	10	100.0		0.1		7	23	29	13	21	1	6	1	0	0							9,973	*
99		43	26		-	9	99.8		0.0		3	18	23	17	25	3	8	1	0								11,507	*
98		43	27		-	8	99.7		No		1	14	16	20	27	5	13	3	0	0							12,543	*
97		42	27		-	9	98.9		No		0	9	10	21	26	10	18	5	1	0							13,567	*
96		41	27		-	10	97.6		No		0	6	5	20	21	13	22	10	2	0	0						14,754	*
95		41	28		-	9	93.3		No		0	4	2	15	15	18	24	16	5	1	0	0					15,605	*
94		40	28		-	10	86.1		No		0	2	1	11	9	20	22	21	11	3	0	0	0				16,507	*
93		40	29		-	9	73.8		No		0	1	0	7	5	18	18	24	17	7	2	0	0				16,747	*
92		39	29		-	10	57.6		No			1	0	4	2	14	13	24	23	13	5	1	0	0			17,053	*
91		39	30		-	9	39.1		No			0	0	2	1	11	7	19	25	21	10	4	1	0	0		17,041	*
90		38	30		-	10	23.1		No			0		1	0	7	3	12	23	25	18	9	2	1	0		16,586	*
89		38	31		-	9	12.1		No			0		0	0	4	1	6	16	25	24	15	6	1	0	0	16,408	*
88		37	31		-	10	5.2		No					0	0	2	0	3	9	20	27	23	12	4	1	0	15,519	*
87		37	32		-	9	2.0		No					0		1	0	1	5	13	25	26	19	8	2	0	14,687	*
86		36	32		-	10	0.8		No					0		0	0	0	2	8	18	27	26	14	4	1	13,567	*
85		36	33		-	9	0.2		No							0		0	1	3	11	24	29	22	9	2	12,317	*
84		35	33		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	5	17	28	30	16	3	11,153	*
83		35	34		-	9	0.0		No									0	0	1	3	11	24	32	23	7	9,925	*
82		34	34		-	10	0.0		No							0				0	1	6	18	33	30	11	8,882	*
81		34	35		-	9	Out		No											0	0	3	12	29	38	18	7,501	*
80		33	35		-	10	Out		No												0	1	8	24	41	26	6,481	*
79		33	36		-	9	Out		No												0	0	3	18	42	36	5,346	*
78		32	36		-	10	Out		No													0	2	13	38	47	4,444	*
77		32	37		-	9	Out		No													0	1	8	36	54	3,623	*
76		31	37		-	10	Out		No													0	0	5	29	66	2,875	*
75		31	38		-	9	Out		No														0	3	25	72	2,231	*
74		30	38		-	10	Out		No															2	19	80	1,779	*
73		30	39		-	9	Out		No															1	15	84	1,374	*
72		29	39		-	10	Out		No															1	10	89	1,076	*
71		29	40		-	9	Out		No															0	6	93	796	*
70		28	40		-	10	Out		No																6	94	505	*
69		27	40		-	11	Out		No																3	97	429	*
68		27	41		-	10	Out		No																3	97	262	*
67		27	42		-	9	Out		No																3	97	207	*
66		27	43		-	8	Out		No																1	99	138	*
65		25	42		-	11	Out		No																2	98	83	*
64		25	43		-	10	Out		No																	100	84	*
63		26	45		-	7	Out		No																3	98	40	*
4	-62						Out		No																	100	112	*

Total:							49.6	%	2.8	%	6	6	6	6	7	6	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	351,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Carolina 2	+0.1
Columbus 1 Toronto 2 (so)	*+0.1
Anaheim 2 Colorado 5	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo	+1.1+0.3+0.1-0.8-0.9-0.9
Ottawa vs Nashville	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Washington vs Carolina	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs Boston	-0.1-0.0+0.1-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Florida vs Dallas	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1+0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs San Jose	+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Toronto	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.2+0.0
Montreal vs Detroit	-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

119	-160						100
118		53	17		-	8	99	1
117		53	18		-	7	98				2
116		52	18		-	8	96	3	1		1
115		51	18		-	9	95	2	0		2
114		50	18		-	10	93	5	1		1
113		50	19		-	9	88	7	3		2
112		50	20		-	8	83	10	3		3				0
111		49	20		-	9	75	14	5	0	5		0
110		49	21		-	8	67	18	6		7				0
109		48	21		-	9	58	22	10	0	9				0
108		47	21		-	10	49	26	12	0	13	0	0		1				0
107		47	22		-	9	38	28	16	0	16	1	0		1
106		47	23		-	8	27	31	18	1	19	2	0		1				0
105		46	23		-	9	17	32	20	3	23	2	1		3	0			0
104		46	24		-	8	9	28	21	5	25	5	2		5	0			0
103		45	24		-	9	4	23	20	8	24	8	3	0	7	0	0		1		0
102		44	24		-	10	2	17	16	11	22	13	6	0	11	1	0		2		0		0
101		44	25		-	9	0	11	13	13	16	17	9	0	15	1	1		3		0
100		43	25		-	10	0	6	9	14	10	19	12	1	17	3	1	0	6	0	1		0	0
99		43	26		-	9	0	3	5	13	5	18	14	3	18	7	3	0	8	0	1		0
98		43	27		-	8		1	2	12	2	15	14	6	15	11	5	0	12	1	3	0	0	0
97		42	27		-	9		0	1	8	0	10	12	9	10	15	9	1	15	3	5	0	1	0
96		41	27		-	10		0	0	6	0	5	7	12	5	16	12	2	16	6	10	0	2	0	0
95		41	28		-	9		0	0	4		2	4	12	2	13	14	4	14	10	14	1	5	1	0	0
94		40	28		-	10		0	0	2		1	2	10	0	9	12	8	9	13	17	4	10	3	0	0	0
93		40	29		-	9		0		1		0	1	7	0	4	7	11	4	14	15	9	16	8	2	0	0
92		39	29		-	10			0	1		0	0	4		2	4	10	1	12	10	14	19	14	7	2	0	0	0
91		39	30		-	9				0		0	0	2		1	1	9	0	7	4	15	15	20	15	7	3	1	0	0
90		38	30		-	10				0			0	1		0	0	6	0	3	1	11	8	18	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
89		38	31		-	9				0				0		0	0	4		1	0	6	3	10	19	22	18	10	4	1	0	0
88		37	31		-	10								0		0	0	2		0	0	3	1	3	10	18	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
87		37	32		-	9								0				1		0	0	1	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
86		36	32		-	10								0				0		0		0		0	1	3	9	17	22	22	15	7	2	0	0
85		36	33		-	9												0				0	0	0	0	1	3	8	17	23	23	15	7	2	0	0
84		35	33		-	10												0				0		0	0	0	1	3	9	17	24	24	15	6	1	0
83		35	34		-	9																0			0	0	0	1	4	10	19	26	23	13	4	1
82		34	34		-	10												0									0	0	1	4	12	23	28	22	8	1
81		34	35		-	9																							0	2	6	16	27	30	17	4
80		33	35		-	10																							0	0	2	9	21	33	25	9
79		33	36		-	9																							0	0	1	4	14	31	33	17
78		32	36		-	10																								0	0	2	9	24	39	25
77		32	37		-	9																									0	1	5	18	42	34
76		31	37		-	10																										0	2	13	38	47
75		31	38		-	9																											1	8	35	56
74		30	38		-	10																											0	4	29	66
73		30	39		-	9																											0	3	24	73
72		29	39		-	10																												2	17	81
71		29	40		-	9																												1	12	87
70		28	40		-	10																												0	8	92
69		27	40		-	11																													5	95
68		27	41		-	10																												0	4	95
67		27	42		-	9																													5	95
66		27	43		-	8																													1	99
65		25	42		-	11																													2	98
64		25	43		-	10																														100
63		26	45		-	7																													8	93
4	-62																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	3	4