San Jose Sharks Playoff Chances

Beat Rangers 4-1, playoff odds up 0.7 to 99.2%
39 points   19 10-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Rangers 1 Sharks 4 +0.5
+1.3
+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Maple Leafs vs Sharks-0.3*+0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
-1.8*-0.2-0.3+1.4+1.7+1.6
-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Canadiens vs Oilers+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1*-0.1-0.1
Coyotes vs Canucks-0.1*-0.1-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*-0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Avalanche vs Blackhawks+0.4*+0.2+0.2-0.2*-0.1-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Lightning+0.2*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2
Capitals vs Sabres+0.2*+0.1*-0.0-0.2*-0.1-0.2
Bruins vs Devils+0.2*-0.0*+0.1*-0.2*-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sharks finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
129-143InYes100344*
128436-3In98.6%991147*
127426-4In99.2991263*
126427-3In99.0991490*
125417-4In96.99702957*
124418-3In96.097121,616*
123408-4In94.295142,791*
122409-3In89.692274,404*
121399-4In86.7893806,605*
1203910-3In82.08631110,326*
1193810-4In75.281515015,111*
1183710-5In67.975619021,129*
1173711-4In59.369724029,823*
1163611-5In49.7611029039,689*
1153612-4In40.1541135051,405*
1143512-5In30.64512420164,586*
1133513-4In22.038134702079,472*
1123413-5In14.830145403096,206*
1113414-4In9.1231459040112,082*
1103314-5In5.1171363070126,458*
1093315-4In2.61212660100140,598*
1083215-5In1.1811670130152,534*
1073216-4In0.4596701810161,205*
1063116-5In0.1376412410165,613*
1053117-4In0.0256013020166,859*
1043017-5In0.01454236040163,469*
1033018-4In0.00346242060157,141*
1022918-5InNo0239347090148,612*
1012919-4100.0%No013145101310134,771*
1002819-5100.0No002345301910121,004*
992820-4100.0No001645202520105,516*
982720-599.9No001144913140090,583*
972721-499.8No073451386075,902*
962621-599.5No04338143100062,103*
952622-498.9No02231247151049,886*
942522-597.6No01123348212038,948*
932523-495.7No0116348274029,817*
922423-592.7No01113443570022,470*
912424-487.9No00633940111016,396*
902324-580.7No00323144172011,725*
892325-471.2No0222444245008,172*
882225-559.8No0111642318105,613*
872226-448.0No0111363713203,806*
862126-535.2No006294020502,401*
852127-424.0No032138288201,583*
842027-514.3No312333415401,030*
832028-47.9No01724392260634*
821928-53.9No4193032132380*
811929-41.5No11122736196200*
801829-51.6No2518432751125*
791830-4OutNo31636351080*
781730-5OutNo21823342344*
771630-6OutNo5293329521*
761631-5OutNo2957147*
751632-4OutNo2550254*
731533-4OutNo1001
39052-0OutNo100223
Total:99.2%6.8%1164212501031000002,703,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Rangers 1 Sharks 4 -0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Maple Leafs vs Sharks+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Coyotes vs Canucks-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
129-143100
128436-3991
127426-4991
126427-3991
125417-497102
124418-396112
123408-494114
122409-390227
121399-4873380
1203910-3824311
1193810-475551500
1183710-5687601900
1173711-4599702400
1163611-55012902900
1153612-440141103500
1143512-5311512041101
1133513-42216130461020
1123413-515151315120300
1113414-49141315540400
1103314-55121225670700
1093315-43910355110900
1083215-517835116001300
1073216-40563452200181100
1063116-50343362810221100
1053117-40223263310273200
1043017-501131736203150400
1033018-4001210372032100600
1022918-50015342130170900
1012919-400122921262500121100
1002819-500012222203300163100
992820-400001622124000196200
982720-5000011137430020124000
972721-40007133411018206100
962621-5040213711142982000
952622-4020203011938961000
942522-50101023125439122000
932523-40010161324672031000
922423-500101103143530321000
912424-4006030392373432000
902324-5003020311433554200
892325-40202240442588520
882225-5011160421381310410
872226-40111036026141511300
862126-500629014112016930
852127-40321026162618710
842027-531200411252514510
832028-40170151929241030
821928-542112428201010
811929-411181329271841
801829-522620322882
791830-43162839133
781730-521623302072
771630-61014333355
761631-5142957
751632-4255025
731533-4100
39052-0100
Total:7542251711141100551200000000000000