Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances

Lost to Red Wings 1-2, playoff odds down 4.8 to 84.6%
40 points   18 12-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2 -3.1
-0.2
Predators 1 Wild 2 -0.5
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)*+0.1
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Wild vs Jets-0.4-0.6-0.4+0.3*-0.2+0.8
Blues vs Sharks-0.4*-0.2-0.4*-0.0*+0.1+0.4
Avalanche vs Canucks+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ducks finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
122-136InYes100211*
121385-5In83.3%83176*
120386-4In66.76711229*
119398-1In64.364142114*
118366-6In39.343183928*
117367-5In37.7411642169*
116368-4In21.22713591146*
115358-5In17.021205440253*
114359-4In15.419146250442*
113349-5In6.7111071070804*
1123410-4In2.96117001201,326*
1113310-5In1.8497011602,310*
1103311-4In0.7286812013,711*
1093211-5In0.3156312725,877*
1083212-4In0.10356334308,818*
1073112-5InNo02493405013,024*
1063012-6In0.0014044608018,648*
1053013-5InNo0132550012025,603*
1042913-6InNo0024553017034,113*
1032914-5InNo0017554023145,017*
1022814-6InNo0012552030157,734*
1012815-5InNo07449137271,848*
1002715-6100.0%No044441443086,728*
992716-5100.0No0233715150102,356*
982616-6100.0No0123025680117,654*
972617-5100.0No01123360120131,371*
962517-699.9No01173621700143,789*
952518-599.7No0012362230152,239*
942418-699.3No0073592910158,051*
932419-598.6No0053543710160,698*
922319-697.1No0022484430158,145*
912320-594.5No0124151500152,259*
902220-690.3No0113356900143,608*
892221-584.3No00125581510131,419*
882121-676.1No00185721200117,855*
872122-566.0No000125329500102,759*
862022-654.6No008473691087,561*
852023-542.8No0053841142072,778*
841923-631.3No0229442140059,417*
831924-521.5No0120422871046,782*
821824-613.6No01133834132036,398*
811825-57.9No00831381940027,116*
801725-64.2No0422392671020,021*
791726-52.0No02153632132014,328*
781626-60.8No1102936194010,157*
771627-50.4No05233726816,872*
761628-40.1No031635321324,466*
751528-5OutNo21029372042,950*
741428-6OutNo0522392861,870*
731429-5OutNo03173633101,100*
721430-4OutNo019314117651*
711330-5OutNo15254524407*
701230-6OutNo4204828237*
691231-5OutNo2104049134*
681131-6OutNo8425072*
671132-5OutNo3415529*
661032-6OutNo411256128*
651134-3OutNo1111789*
641135-2OutNo67333*
40-63OutNo100212*
Total:84.6%0.0%003114137299411002,542,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2 +0.6
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Avalanche vs Canucks-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Blues vs Sharks-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
122-136100
121385-58317
120386-4671122
119398-1641421
118366-63941839
117367-538316421
116368-421513591
115358-517420054040
114359-41541461150
113349-575100701070
1123410-4331106820120
1113310-522816731160
1103311-4127162612001
1093211-50141531012702
1083212-400214412333130
1073112-501133153391500
1063012-600112217404330800
1053013-500014185044601200
1042913-600071750421101700
1032914-500031441371702211
1022814-60001114129230028210
1012815-500073220291032520
1002715-6004221232103311300
992716-500212631103319500
982616-600111228202829710
972617-501011232121399300
962517-6001017211349116000
952518-5000012127541112000
942418-600007123569201000
932419-5000050215373010000
922319-600202048440111000
912320-50102041249122100
902220-601010331551232100
892221-5000102505812552100
882121-60001805702586200
872122-50001205301510116100
862022-6008047013915124100
852023-50050380027171910200
841923-602290151524176100
831924-5012000211252512300
821824-6011300162130207100
811825-500800315292813300
801725-6040182433218100
791726-50200417302814400
781626-610210243222810
771627-5001417322914300
761628-400210263321710
751528-50161832291320
741428-6021128342040
731429-51722342880
721430-404123138150
711330-5182941201
701230-6052146272
691231-521233467
681131-6842437
671132-537284814
661032-647146411
651134-311114433
641034-43367
40-63100
Total:00001210491192842501123322100000