Clandestine Takeover Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Lost to Kevin Smith 173.5-185, playoff odds down 15.3 to 23.9%

9 points 4-6-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top seed	100.0*	Average seed
Kevin Smith 185 Darren Payler 173.5	-19.4		No		-1.3
Jeremy Ballantyne 135.5 Dan Dziuba 138	+2.3				-0.0
Scott Sleightholm 87 Agholorious Bas 169	+1.9				-0.0
James McMillan 162 Brent Golem 152	+1.8				+0.2
Ryan Scott 64.5 Terry Koning 125.5	-0.3		-0.1
Daniel Mittag 91 Andre Pasche 118.5			+0.7		-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/26	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top seed	100.0*	Average seed
Jeremy Ballantyne vs Darren Payler	Out-15.2+24.2				-1.5-0.4+1.5
Ryan Scott vs Agholorious Bas	+0.9-1.7-0.8				-0.0-0.1+0.0
Scott Sleightholm vs Dan Dziuba	+0.8+1.1-0.8				+0.1+0.0-0.1
Daniel Mittag vs Terry Koning	+0.3*-0.1-0.3				+0.1+0.0-0.1
Kevin Smith vs Brent Golem	+0.1*+0.0-0.1				+0.2-0.1-0.2
James McMillan vs Andre Pasche					+0.2-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Darren Payler finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Top	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

13	2	-	0	-	0	96.6	%	No				9	42	45	3						3,621,655
12	1	-	0	-	1	19.9		No				0	3	17	34	32	12	1	0		146,734
11	1	-	1	-	0	0.0		No						0	2	21	45	26	5	0	7,245,034
	0	-	0	-	2	0.1		No						0	4	18	39	31	8	1	1,473
10	0	-	1	-	1	Out		No								0	7	26	42	25	146,355
9	0	-	2	-	0	Out		No									0	8	39	53	3,622,285

Total:						23.9	%	No				2	10	11	2	11	23	15	12	13	14,783,536

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 11/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kevin Smith 185 Darren Payler 173.5	+1.3
James McMillan 162 Brent Golem 152	-0.2
Daniel Mittag 91 Andre Pasche 118.5	+0.1
Scott Sleightholm 87 Agholorious Bas 169	+0.0
Jeremy Ballantyne 135.5 Dan Dziuba 138	+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/26	100.0*	Lottery seed
Jeremy Ballantyne vs Darren Payler	+1.5+0.4-1.5
Kevin Smith vs Brent Golem	-0.2+0.1+0.2
James McMillan vs Andre Pasche	-0.2+0.1+0.2
Daniel Mittag vs Terry Koning	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Scott Sleightholm vs Dan Dziuba	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Ryan Scott vs Agholorious Bas	+0.0+0.1-0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

13	2	-	0	-	0				9	42	45	3
12	1	-	0	-	1				0	3	17	34	32	12	1	0
11	1	-	1	-	0						0	2	21	45	26	5	0
	0	-	0	-	2						0	4	18	39	31	8	1
10	0	-	1	-	1								0	7	26	42	25
9	0	-	2	-	0									0	8	39	53

Total:									2	10	11	2	11	23	15	12	13