Chicken Parm Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Beat Jeremy Ballantyne 138-135.5, playoff odds up 12.3 to 23.4%

9 points 4-6-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Jeremy Ballantyne 135.5 Dan Dziuba 138	+11.1		+1.1
James McMillan 162 Brent Golem 152	+0.4		+0.2
Scott Sleightholm 87 Agholorious Bas 169	+0.4		-0.1
Kevin Smith 185 Darren Payler 173.5	+0.2		+0.1
Ryan Scott 64.5 Terry Koning 125.5	+0.1		+0.0
Daniel Mittag 91 Andre Pasche 118.5			-0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/26	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Scott Sleightholm vs Dan Dziuba	-23.4-6.0+23.5		-1.5-0.2+1.5
Ryan Scott vs Agholorious Bas	+1.5-0.6-1.5		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Jeremy Ballantyne vs Darren Payler	-0.8+0.9+0.8
Daniel Mittag vs Terry Koning	+0.6*-0.0-0.6		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Kevin Smith vs Brent Golem	+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.2-0.1-0.2
James McMillan vs Andre Pasche			+0.2-0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Dan Dziuba finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Top	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

13	2	-	0	-	0	94.0	%	No				13	48	33	6						3,624,304
12	1	-	0	-	1	31.8		No				1	7	25	37	23	7	1	0		146,130
11	1	-	1	-	0	0.0		No						0	4	29	44	20	3	0	7,240,803
	0	-	0	-	2	Out		No							9	36	35	16	3	0	1,417
10	0	-	1	-	1	Out		No								1	9	33	40	17	145,942
9	0	-	2	-	0	Out		No									1	12	41	47	3,624,940

Total:						23.4	%	No				3	12	8	4	15	22	13	12	12	14,783,536

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 11/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Jeremy Ballantyne 135.5 Dan Dziuba 138	-1.1
Daniel Mittag 91 Andre Pasche 118.5	+0.2
James McMillan 162 Brent Golem 152	-0.2
Kevin Smith 185 Darren Payler 173.5	-0.1
Scott Sleightholm 87 Agholorious Bas 169	+0.1
Ryan Scott 64.5 Terry Koning 125.5	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/26	100.0*	Lottery seed
Scott Sleightholm vs Dan Dziuba	+1.5+0.2-1.5
Kevin Smith vs Brent Golem	-0.2+0.1+0.2
James McMillan vs Andre Pasche	-0.2+0.0+0.2
Daniel Mittag vs Terry Koning	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Ryan Scott vs Agholorious Bas	-0.1-0.0+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

13	2	-	0	-	0				13	48	33	6
12	1	-	0	-	1				1	7	25	37	23	7	1	0
11	1	-	1	-	0						0	4	29	44	20	3	0
	0	-	0	-	2							9	36	35	16	3	0
10	0	-	1	-	1								1	9	33	40	17
9	0	-	2	-	0									1	12	41	47

Total:									3	12	8	4	15	22	13	12	12