Vatican City Playoff Chances 2012

Beat IOM 5-4, Beat IOM 8-3, playoff odds unchanged at 100%

26 points 13 5-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
ERI 6 HAI 4	*In
ICE 2 MAD 3	*In
IRE 2 T&T 4	*In
SCO 3 EQ 0	*In
IOM 4 VC 5			+0.1
IOM 3 VC 8			+0.1
NZ 7 LCH 3			+0.1
NZ 9 LCH 7			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
ERI vs VC			-0.5-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
ERI vs VC			-0.5-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the VC finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

33	-34						In	100												2,474,024	*
32		3	1		-	0	In	47	44	9										2,574,069
		2	0		-	2	In	43	48	9										154,381
31		2	1		-	1	In	31	53	16										957,514
		1	0		-	3	In	31	53	16										12,497
30		2	2		-	0	In	6	42	51	1									1,483,147
		1	1		-	2	In	5	39	51	5									115,792
		0	0		-	4	In	5	30	49	17									348
29		1	2		-	1	In	2	28	59	11									359,092
		0	1		-	3	In	2	21	53	24									4,490
28		1	3		-	0	In	0	8	61	30									370,575
		0	2		-	2	In	0	3	30	67									21,233
27		0	3		-	1	In	0	1	19	80									43,977
26		0	4		-	0	In		0	2	60	38	1							35,833

Total:							In	48	29	19	3	0	0							8,606,972

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Why are you looking down here? We just made the playoffs!

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
IOM 4 VC 5	-0.1
IOM 3 VC 8	-0.1
NZ 7 LCH 3	-0.1
NZ 9 LCH 7	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
ERI vs VC	+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
ERI vs VC	+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

33	-34						100
32		3	1		-	0	47	44	9
		2	0		-	2	43	48	9
31		2	1		-	1	31	53	16
		1	0		-	3	31	53	16
30		2	2		-	0	6	42	51	1
		1	1		-	2	5	39	51	5
		0	0		-	4	5	30	49	17
29		1	2		-	1	2	28	59	11
		0	1		-	3	2	21	53	24
28		1	3		-	0	0	8	61	30
		0	2		-	2	0	3	30	67
27		0	3		-	1	0	1	19	80
26		0	4		-	0		0	2	60	38	1

Total:							48	29	19	3	0	0