Scotland Playoff Chances 2012

Beat EQ 5-2, Beat EQ 3-0, playoff odds up 35.4 to 81%

18 points 9 9-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
SCO 5 EQ 2	+18.8		+0.6
SCO 3 EQ 0	+18.8		+0.6
NZ 7 LCH 3	-7.1		-0.1
NZ 9 LCH 7	-7.1		-0.1
IRE 5 T&T 6	-3.9		-0.1
IRE 2 T&T 4	-3.9		-0.1
ERI 3 HAI 4	+1.0
ERI 6 HAI 4	-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
SCO vs LCH	+12.2+12.0+12.1+2.1+2.1-16.3		+0.7+0.6+0.6-0.1-0.1-0.8
SCO vs LCH	+12.2+12.1+12.1+1.9+2.0-16.3		+0.7+0.6+0.6-0.1-0.1-0.8
ERI vs VC	-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.2-0.2+0.9		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
ERI vs VC	-1.0-1.0-1.0*-0.1-0.1+0.9		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the SCO finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

26	4	0		-	0	In			0	31	59	7	2	0						193,674
25	3	0		-	1	In				1	41	43	14	1						310,591
24	3	1		-	0	100.0	%			0	16	38	32	13	0	0				964,305
	2	0		-	2	In				0	9	38	35	17	0					179,738
23	2	1		-	1	100.0					1	12	46	38	2	0				1,120,455
	1	0		-	3	100.0						7	47	43	2	0				43,872
22	2	2		-	0	98.4					0	2	17	50	29	2	0			1,735,159
	1	1		-	2	98.3						1	15	52	30	2	0			407,525
	0	0		-	4	98.0						1	14	53	31	2				3,810
21	1	2		-	1	89.4							4	36	50	10	1			1,264,896
	0	1		-	3	89.5							4	36	50	10	1			46,999
20	1	3		-	0	50.0								3	47	39	11			1,308,458
	0	2		-	2	49.9								3	47	39	11			219,181
19	0	3		-	1	20.9									21	50	29			454,175
18	0	4		-	0	3.8									4	31	65			354,134

Total:						81.0	%		0	1	5	9	16	26	25	13	6			8,606,972

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SCO 3 EQ 0	-0.6
SCO 5 EQ 2	-0.6
NZ 7 LCH 3	+0.1
NZ 9 LCH 7	+0.1
IRE 5 T&T 6	+0.1
IRE 2 T&T 4	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SCO vs LCH	-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.1+0.2+0.8
SCO vs LCH	-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.2+0.2+0.8
ERI vs VC	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
ERI vs VC	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

26	4	0		-	0		0	31	59	7	2	0
25	3	0		-	1			1	41	43	14	1
24	3	1		-	0			0	16	38	32	13	0	0
	2	0		-	2			0	9	38	35	17	0
23	2	1		-	1				1	12	46	38	2	0
	1	0		-	3					7	47	43	2	0
22	2	2		-	0				0	2	17	50	29	2	0
	1	1		-	2					1	15	52	30	2	0
	0	0		-	4					1	14	53	31	2
21	1	2		-	1						4	36	50	10	0
	0	1		-	3						4	36	50	10	0
20	1	3		-	0							3	47	41	9
	0	2		-	2							3	47	41	9
19	0	3		-	1								21	50	29
18	0	4		-	0								4	31	65

Total:							0	1	5	9	16	26	25	13	6