Eritrea Playoff Chances 2012

Lost to HAI 3-4, Beat HAI 6-4, playoff odds down 8.4 to 88.6%

18 points 9 9-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
ERI 3 HAI 4	-3.6		-0.7
ERI 6 HAI 4	+1.7		+0.4
SCO 3 EQ 0	-0.8		+0.1
SCO 5 EQ 2	-0.8		+0.1
NZ 7 LCH 3	-0.7
NZ 9 LCH 7	-0.7
IRE 2 T&T 4	-0.5
IRE 5 T&T 6	-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
ERI vs VC	+7.2+7.1+7.2+2.3+2.3-6.9		+0.7+0.7+0.7+0.0+0.0-0.6
ERI vs VC	+7.2+7.1+7.1+2.3+2.3-6.9		+0.7+0.7+0.7+0.0+0.0-0.6
SCO vs LCH	-1.6-1.6-1.6-0.2-0.2+2.1		-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1
SCO vs LCH	-1.6-1.5-1.5-0.2-0.2+2.0		-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1

Chances based on how well the ERI finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

26	4	0		-	0	In			0	1	60	39	1							513,924
25	3	0		-	1	In				0	25	54	21	0						537,830
24	3	1		-	0	In				0	8	52	36	4	0					1,663,228
	2	0		-	2	100.0	%			0	7	52	36	4	0	0				198,893
23	2	1		-	1	100.0					1	15	66	18	1	0				1,230,991
	1	0		-	3	100.0					0	14	64	19	2	0				30,399
22	2	2		-	0	99.3					0	4	47	38	10	1	0			1,908,614
	1	1		-	2	98.3					0	4	42	39	14	2	0			282,765
	0	0		-	4	96.0					0	3	28	44	21	4				1,586
21	1	2		-	1	87.2							11	37	38	12	1			874,475
	0	1		-	3	74.2							5	26	42	24	2			20,004
20	1	3		-	0	51.4							1	13	38	37	11			903,661
	0	2		-	2	25.0								2	23	53	22			94,341
19	0	3		-	1	4.4									4	47	49			193,461
18	0	4		-	0	0.9									1	23	76			152,800

Total:						88.6	%		0	0	7	20	32	18	11	7	4			8,606,972

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
ERI 3 HAI 4	+0.7
ERI 6 HAI 4	-0.4
SCO 5 EQ 2	-0.1
SCO 3 EQ 0	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
ERI vs VC	-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.0-0.0+0.6
ERI vs VC	-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.0-0.0+0.6
SCO vs LCH	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1
SCO vs LCH	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

26	4	0		-	0		0	1	60	39	1
25	3	0		-	1			0	25	54	21	0
24	3	1		-	0			0	8	52	36	4	0
	2	0		-	2			0	7	52	36	4	0	0
23	2	1		-	1				1	15	66	18	1	0
	1	0		-	3				0	14	64	19	2	0
22	2	2		-	0				0	4	47	38	10	1	0
	1	1		-	2				0	4	42	39	14	2	0
	0	0		-	4				0	3	28	44	21	4
21	1	2		-	1						11	37	38	12	1
	0	1		-	3						5	26	42	25	1
20	1	3		-	0						1	13	38	40	8
	0	2		-	2							2	23	58	17
19	0	3		-	1								4	47	49
18	0	4		-	0								1	23	76

Total:							0	0	7	20	32	18	11	8	4