Equitorial Guinea Playoff Chances 2012

Lost to SCO 2-5, Lost to SCO 0-3, playoff odds down 43.7 to 51.4%

16 points 8 10-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
SCO 3 EQ 0	-6.7		-0.7
SCO 5 EQ 2	-6.7		-0.7
NZ 9 LCH 7	-1.3
NZ 7 LCH 3	-1.2
IRE 2 T&T 4	-0.4
IRE 5 T&T 6	-0.4
ERI 3 HAI 4	+0.4		+0.0
ERI 6 HAI 4	-0.2		+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
ERI vs VC	-2.5-2.4-2.5-1.1-1.0+2.5		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
ERI vs VC	-2.4-2.5-2.3-1.1-1.0+2.4		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
SCO vs LCH	-1.2-1.0-1.2+0.1-0.0+1.5		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
SCO vs LCH	-1.1-1.1-1.2-0.0+0.1+1.5		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the EQ finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

24	4	0		-	0	In				0	6	44	40	9	1					327,147
23	3	0		-	1	100.0	%				0	9	47	36	8	0				409,343
22	3	1		-	0	99.5						2	29	42	26	1				1,269,356
	2	0		-	2	97.2						2	27	40	27	3	0			190,048
21	2	1		-	1	85.6							5	29	51	14	1			1,174,071
	1	0		-	3	73.3							4	23	46	25	2			38,245
20	2	2		-	0	57.0							1	10	46	38	5			1,817,781
	1	1		-	2	38.3							0	7	31	53	9			354,869
	0	0		-	4	16.0								1	15	69	15			2,785
19	1	2		-	1	2.7									3	60	37			1,097,721
	0	1		-	3	2.6									3	61	37			34,708
18	1	3		-	0	0.1									0	41	59			1,134,234
	0	2		-	2	0.1									0	41	59			161,661
17	0	3		-	1	Out										17	83			334,652
16	0	4		-	0	Out										7	93			260,351

Total:						51.4	%			0	0	2	10	16	23	27	21			8,606,972

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SCO 5 EQ 2	+0.7
SCO 3 EQ 0	+0.7
ERI 6 HAI 4	-0.0
ERI 3 HAI 4	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
ERI vs VC	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
ERI vs VC	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
SCO vs LCH	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
SCO vs LCH	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

24	4	0		-	0			0	6	44	40	9	1
23	3	0		-	1				0	9	47	36	8	0
22	3	1		-	0					2	29	42	26	1
	2	0		-	2					2	27	40	27	3	0
21	2	1		-	1						5	29	51	14	1
	1	0		-	3						4	23	46	25	2
20	2	2		-	0						1	10	46	37	6
	1	1		-	2						0	7	31	51	11
	0	0		-	4							1	15	69	15
19	1	2		-	1								3	60	37
	0	1		-	3								3	61	37
18	1	3		-	0								0	41	59
	0	2		-	2								0	41	59
17	0	3		-	1									17	83
16	0	4		-	0									7	93

Total:								0	0	2	10	16	23	27	22