Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 85.9%

115 points 29-6-1 24-15

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Nashville vs Toronto	-6.2-1.1-1.1-1.2+5.4+8.2		-0.5-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.3+0.7
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders	+2.5+1.6+1.6+1.5-1.5-3.4
Carolina vs Columbus	-3.0-1.4+1.0+1.0+0.9+1.6
Tampa Bay vs Detroit	-1.4+0.2+1.2+1.2+1.2+1.9
Boston vs Dallas	-0.3-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.6		-0.2-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Minnesota vs Ottawa	+0.3-0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.5		+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.3
Montreal vs Florida			-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

136	7	-	0	-	0	0		-	0	In		No		80		20		0											11,332
135	6	-	1	-	0	0		-	0	In		No		69		30		1											11,612
134	6	-	0	-	0	0		-	1	In		No		58		40		3		0									42,135	*
133	6	-	0	-	0	1		-	0	In		No		42		51		7	0	0									112,341	*
132	5	-	1	-	0	1		-	0	In		No		29		58		13		0									140,565	*
131	5	-	0	-	0	1		-	1	In		No		18		56		24		2									151,713
	5	-	0	-	1	1		-	0	In		No		18		57		23		2									149,237	*
130	5	-	0	-	0	2		-	0	In		No		9		50		36		5									234,630
	4	-	1	-	0	1		-	1	In		No		9		50		36		5									246,610	*
129	4	-	1	-	0	2		-	0	In		No		4		42		45		9									263,531	*
	4	-	0	-	0	1		-	2	100.0	%	No		4		38		47		11	0								124,483
	4	-	0	-	1	1		-	1	100.0		No		4		38		47		11	0								167,486	*
128	4	-	0	-	0	2		-	1	100.0		No		1		25		53		20	0								386,493
	4	-	0	-	1	2		-	0	100.0		No		1		25		53		21	0								192,551
	3	-	1	-	0	1		-	2	100.0		No		2		27		53		19	0								275,456	*
127	4	-	0	-	0	3		-	0	99.9		No		0		15		52		33	0								399,761
	3	-	1	-	0	2		-	1	99.9		No		0		15		52		33	0								245,761
	3	-	1	-	1	2		-	0	99.8		No		0		14		52		33	0								216,470	*
	3	-	0	-	1	1		-	2	99.8		No		0		14		52		33	0								151,773	*
126	3	-	1	-	0	3		-	0	99.5		No		0		9		47		43	0	0							253,588
	3	-	0	-	1	2		-	1	98.7		No		0		7		44		48	1	0							252,209
	3	-	0	-	0	2		-	2	98.8		No		0		7		44		47	1	0							371,430	*
	2	-	2	-	0	2		-	1	99.4		No		0		8		47		45	1								130,316	*
125	3	-	0	-	0	3		-	1	97.2		No		0		3		33		61	3	0							518,159
	3	-	0	-	1	3		-	0	97.2		No		0		3		33		61	3	0							261,521
	2	-	1	-	1	2		-	1	97.3		No		0		3		33		61	3	0							240,291	*
	2	-	2	-	0	3		-	0	97.5		No		0		3		35		59	2	0							182,030	*
124	3	-	0	-	0	4		-	0	94.1		No		0		1		22		71	6	0	0						463,821	*
	2	-	1	-	0	3		-	1	93.7		No		0		1		22		71	6	0							370,272	*
	2	-	1	-	1	3		-	0	94.9		No				1		23		71	5	0							123,811
	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	3	92.7		No				1		22		70	7	0	0						163,485	*
123	2	-	0	-	1	3		-	1	83.0		No				0		13		70	16	1	0						253,766
	2	-	0	-	0	3		-	2	82.8		No				0		13		70	16	1	0						248,447
	2	-	1	-	0	4		-	0	89.1		No				0		16		73	11	0	0						191,866
	2	-	0	-	2	3		-	0	85.0		No				0		14		71	14	1	0						228,189	*
122	2	-	0	-	0	4		-	1	73.8		No				0		6		68	24	2	0						384,414
	2	-	0	-	1	4		-	0	74.1		No				0		6		68	24	2	0						196,995
	1	-	1	-	1	3		-	1	74.4		No				0		6		68	23	2	0						159,701	*
	1	-	2	-	0	4		-	0	73.7		No				0		7		67	24	2	0						128,812	*
121	2	-	0	-	0	5		-	0	62.0		No				0		3		59	33	5	0						239,508
	1	-	1	-	0	4		-	1	60.8		No				0		3		58	33	5	0						236,871	*
	1	-	0	-	1	3		-	2	54.7		No				0		2		52	38	7	0						157,363	*
120	1	-	0	-	1	4		-	1	38.1		No						1		37	45	15	2						247,613	*
	1	-	1	-	0	5		-	0	43.4		No						1		42	43	13	1						157,763	*
119	1	-	0	-	0	5		-	1	26.7		No						0		27	46	24	4						150,231
	1	-	0	-	1	5		-	0	26.8		No						0		27	46	24	3						151,261	*
118	1	-	0	-	0	6		-	0	14.9		No						0		15	42	35	8						158,273	*
117	0	-	0	-	1	5		-	1	5.8		No								6	29	45	20						66,714	*
116	0	-	0	-	0	6		-	1	2.5		No								2	19	47	31						36,668	*
115	0	-	0	-	0	7		-	0	0.8		No								1	10	45	44						11,672

Total:										85.9	%	No		3		12		27	0	43	11	3	1						10,261,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary 1 Los Angeles 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nashville vs Toronto	+0.9+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.6-1.3
Boston vs Dallas	+0.3+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.5
Minnesota vs Ottawa	-0.2-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.4
Montreal vs Florida	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.2
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders	-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1
Carolina vs Columbus	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

What If

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

136	7	-	0	-	0	0		-	0			10	69			12	8			0	0
135	6	-	1	-	0	0		-	0			5	64			14	16			1
134	6	-	0	-	0	0		-	1			1	57			10	30			2	0			0
133	6	-	0	-	0	1		-	0			0	42			7	44			6	1	0		0
132	5	-	1	-	0	1		-	0			0	29			3	55			9	4			0
131	5	-	0	-	0	1		-	1			0	18			1	56			11	13			2	0
	5	-	0	-	1	1		-	0			0	18			1	56			11	12			2
130	5	-	0	-	0	2		-	0				9			0	50			13	24			5	0
	4	-	1	-	0	1		-	1				9			0	50			12	24			5	0
129	4	-	1	-	0	2		-	0				4			0	42			11	34			9	0
	4	-	0	-	0	1		-	2				4			0	38			8	39			11	0	0
	4	-	0	-	1	1		-	1				4			0	38			8	39			11	0	0
128	4	-	0	-	0	2		-	1				1			0	25			5	48			20	1	0
	4	-	0	-	1	2		-	0				2			0	27			6	47			19	1	0
	3	-	1	-	0	1		-	2				1				25			5	47			20	1	0
127	4	-	0	-	0	3		-	0				0				15			4	48			31	2	0
	3	-	1	-	0	2		-	1				0				15			4	48			31	2	0
	3	-	1	-	1	2		-	0				0				14			3	49			31	2	0
	3	-	0	-	1	1		-	2				0				14			3	49			31	2	0
126	3	-	1	-	0	3		-	0				0				9			2	45			38	6	0	0
	3	-	0	-	1	2		-	1				0				7			1	43			41	7	1	0
	3	-	0	-	0	2		-	2				0				7			1	44			41	7	1	0
	2	-	2	-	0	2		-	1				0				8			2	45			39	6	1
125	3	-	0	-	0	3		-	1				0				3			0	33			46	15	3	0
	3	-	0	-	1	3		-	0				0				3			0	33			46	15	3	0
	2	-	1	-	1	2		-	1				0				3			0	33			46	15	3	0
	2	-	2	-	0	3		-	0				0				3			0	35			44	15	2	0
124	3	-	0	-	0	4		-	0				0				1			0	22			46	25	6	0	0
	2	-	1	-	0	3		-	1				0				1			0	23			46	25	5	0
	2	-	1	-	1	3		-	0								1			0	23			47	25	5	0
	2	-	0	-	1	2		-	2				0				1			0	21			45	25	8	0
	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	3								1			0	22			45	25	7	0	0
123	2	-	0	-	1	3		-	1								0			0	13			35	35	16	1	0
	2	-	0	-	0	3		-	2								0			0	13			35	35	16	1	0
	2	-	1	-	0	4		-	0								0			0	16			37	36	11	0	0
	2	-	0	-	2	3		-	0								0			0	14			35	36	14	1	0
122	2	-	0	-	0	4		-	1								0				6			24	44	24	2	0
	2	-	0	-	1	4		-	0								0				6			24	44	24	2	0
	1	-	1	-	1	3		-	1								0			0	6			24	44	24	2	0
121	2	-	0	-	0	5		-	0								0				3			15	44	33	5	0
	1	-	1	-	0	4		-	1								0				3			14	44	33	5	0
	1	-	0	-	1	3		-	2								0				2			13	39	38	7	0
120	1	-	0	-	1	4		-	1												1			5	32	45	15	2
	1	-	1	-	0	5		-	0												1			6	36	43	13	1
119	1	-	0	-	0	5		-	1												0			2	25	46	24	4
	1	-	0	-	1	5		-	0												0			2	25	46	24	3
118	1	-	0	-	0	6		-	0												0			1	14	41	35	9	0
117	0	-	0	-	1	5		-	1															0	6	29	44	21	0	0
116	0	-	0	-	0	6		-	1																2	19	46	32	1	0
115	0	-	0	-	0	7		-	0																1	9	41	45	5	0

Total:												0	3			0	12			3	25	0		26	17	11	3	1	0	0