Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.005 to 4.9%

106 points 27-6-4 29-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Detroit	+3.8+0.7-1.7-1.6-1.7-3.1		+0.3+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Nashville vs Toronto	+1.6+0.2+0.4+0.2-0.8-1.6
Boston vs Dallas	-0.6-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.6
Carolina vs Columbus	-0.5-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2+0.4		-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders	+0.4+0.1+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.5		+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Ottawa	+0.3-0.0-0.0*+0.1-0.2-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

127	7	-	0	-	0	0		-	0	98.3	%	No		5		29		47		17	2								3,892
126	6	-	1	-	0	0		-	0	95.0		No		2		18		46		30	5	0							4,193
125	6	-	0	-	0	0		-	1	86.4		No		0		7		37		42	13	0	0						14,561	*
124	6	-	0	-	0	1		-	0	70.5		No		0		2		22		46	28	2	0						38,371	*
123	5	-	1	-	0	1		-	0	53.2		No				0		12		41	42	5	0						48,086	*
122	5	-	0	-	0	1		-	1	33.5		No				0		4		29	54	12	0						50,549
	5	-	0	-	1	1		-	0	34.3		No				0		5		29	53	12	0						51,179	*
121	5	-	0	-	0	2		-	0	18.4		No				0		1		17	59	22	1						77,936
	4	-	1	-	0	1		-	1	18.2		No				0		1		17	58	22	1						82,534	*
120	4	-	1	-	0	2		-	0	8.6		No						1		8	53	34	4						62,255
	4	-	0	-	1	1		-	1	8.6		No						0		8	52	35	4						41,075
	4	-	0	-	0	1		-	2	8.4		No						0		8	53	35	4						80,958	*
119	4	-	0	-	0	2		-	1	3.2		No						0		3	42	46	9						125,978
	4	-	0	-	1	2		-	0	3.3		No						0		3	41	46	9						63,741
	3	-	1	-	1	1		-	1	3.1		No						0		3	41	46	9						90,781	*
118	4	-	0	-	0	3		-	0	1.0		No						0		1	29	53	17						129,818
	3	-	1	-	0	2		-	1	0.9		No						0		1	29	53	17						80,706
	3	-	1	-	1	2		-	0	0.9		No						0		1	30	52	17						71,098	*
	3	-	0	-	1	1		-	2	1.0		No						0		1	29	53	17						49,466	*
117	3	-	1	-	0	3		-	0	0.2		No								0	18	54	29						82,866
	3	-	0	-	1	2		-	1	0.2		No								0	18	53	29						82,067
	3	-	0	-	0	2		-	2	0.2		No								0	17	53	29						81,105
	3	-	0	-	2	2		-	0	0.2		No								0	17	53	29						82,430	*
116	3	-	0	-	0	3		-	1	0.1		No								0	9	48	43						167,895
	3	-	0	-	1	3		-	0	0.1		No								0	9	48	43						85,064
	2	-	1	-	1	2		-	1	0.0		No								0	9	48	43						78,598	*
	2	-	1	-	0	2		-	2	0.0		No								0	9	48	43						59,047	*
115	3	-	0	-	0	4		-	0	0.0		No								0	5	40	56						130,129
	2	-	1	-	0	3		-	1	0.0		No								0	4	39	56						119,844	*
	2	-	1	-	1	3		-	0	Out		No									5	39	56						67,580	*
	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	3	Out		No									4	39	56						46,479	*
114	2	-	0	-	1	3		-	1	Out		No									2	29	70						82,389
	2	-	0	-	0	3		-	2	Out		No									2	28	70						81,177
	2	-	1	-	0	4		-	0	Out		No									2	29	70						61,973
	2	-	0	-	2	3		-	0	Out		No									2	28	70						74,546	*
113	2	-	0	-	0	4		-	1	Out		No									1	18	81	0					125,953
	2	-	0	-	1	4		-	0	Out		No									1	18	81	0					63,877
	1	-	1	-	1	3		-	1	Out		No									0	18	81	0					52,006	*
	1	-	2	-	0	4		-	0	Out		No									0	18	81	0	0				41,939	*
112	2	-	0	-	0	5		-	0	Out		No									0	11	88	2	0				77,791
	1	-	1	-	0	4		-	1	Out		No									0	11	88	2	0				77,493	*
	1	-	0	-	1	3		-	2	Out		No									0	11	88	2	0				51,087	*
111	1	-	0	-	1	4		-	1	Out		No									0	5	91	4	0				81,755	*
	1	-	1	-	0	5		-	0	Out		No									0	5	92	3	0				51,654	*
110	1	-	0	-	0	5		-	1	Out		No									0	2	89	9	0				50,580
	1	-	0	-	1	5		-	0	Out		No										2	88	10	0				49,708	*
109	1	-	0	-	0	6		-	0	Out		No										1	79	20	1	0			53,043	*
108	0	-	0	-	1	5		-	1	Out		No										0	67	30	3	0			22,745	*
107	0	-	0	-	0	6		-	1	Out		No											49	43	9	0			12,641	*
106	0	-	0	-	0	7		-	0	Out		No											29	54	16	1			4,102

Total:										4.9	%	No		0		0		1		4	18	32	43	1	0	0			3,366,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Detroit	-0.5-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.2+0.5
Carolina vs Columbus	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders	-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1
Winnipeg vs Anaheim	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

127	7	-	0	-	0	0		-	0				5				29			7	39			16	1	2
126	6	-	1	-	0	0		-	0				2				18			4	42			25	4	5	0
125	6	-	0	-	0	0		-	1				0				7			1	36			30	11	13	0	0
124	6	-	0	-	0	1		-	0				0				2			0	22			28	18	28	2	0
123	5	-	1	-	0	1		-	0								0			0	12			18	23	42	5	0
122	5	-	0	-	0	1		-	1								0			0	4			8	21	54	12	0
	5	-	0	-	1	1		-	0								0				5			8	21	53	12	0
121	5	-	0	-	0	2		-	0								0				1			3	13	59	22	1
	4	-	1	-	0	1		-	1								0				1			3	13	58	22	1
120	4	-	1	-	0	2		-	0												1			1	7	53	34	4
	4	-	0	-	1	1		-	1												0			1	7	52	35	4
	4	-	0	-	0	1		-	2												0			1	7	53	35	4
119	4	-	0	-	0	2		-	1												0			0	3	42	46	9
	4	-	0	-	1	2		-	0												0			0	3	41	46	9
	3	-	1	-	1	1		-	1												0			0	3	41	46	9
118	4	-	0	-	0	3		-	0												0			0	1	29	53	17	0
	3	-	1	-	0	2		-	1												0			0	1	29	53	17	0
	3	-	1	-	1	2		-	0												0			0	1	29	52	18	0
	3	-	0	-	1	1		-	2												0			0	1	29	53	17	0
117	3	-	1	-	0	3		-	0															0	0	17	53	29	1	0
	3	-	0	-	1	2		-	1															0	0	17	52	30	1	0
	3	-	0	-	0	2		-	2															0	0	17	52	30	1	0
	3	-	0	-	2	2		-	0															0	0	17	52	30	1	0
	2	-	2	-	0	2		-	1																0	17	53	29	1	0
116	3	-	0	-	0	3		-	1																0	9	46	43	2	0	0
	3	-	0	-	1	3		-	0																0	9	46	43	2	0
	2	-	1	-	1	2		-	1																0	9	46	43	2	0
115	3	-	0	-	0	4		-	0																0	4	34	54	8	0	0
	2	-	1	-	0	3		-	1																0	4	34	54	8	0	0
	2	-	0	-	1	2		-	2																0	4	34	54	8	0
	2	-	1	-	1	3		-	0																	4	34	54	8	0	0
114	2	-	0	-	1	3		-	1																	1	22	59	16	1	0
	2	-	0	-	0	3		-	2																	1	22	59	16	1	0
	2	-	1	-	0	4		-	0																	1	22	61	15	1	0
	2	-	0	-	2	3		-	0																	1	22	61	15	1	0
113	2	-	0	-	0	4		-	1																	0	11	55	29	5	0
	2	-	0	-	1	4		-	0																	0	11	56	28	5	0
	1	-	1	-	1	3		-	1																	0	11	56	28	5	0
	1	-	2	-	0	4		-	0																	0	11	57	27	4	0
112	2	-	0	-	0	5		-	0																	0	4	41	40	13	2	0
	1	-	1	-	0	4		-	1																	0	4	42	40	13	1	0
	1	-	0	-	1	3		-	2																	0	4	40	40	13	2	0
111	1	-	0	-	1	4		-	1																	0	1	27	44	23	4	0
	1	-	0	-	0	4		-	2																	0	1	28	43	23	4	0
110	1	-	0	-	0	5		-	1																		0	13	37	36	13	1	0
	1	-	0	-	1	5		-	0																		0	13	38	35	13	1	0
109	1	-	0	-	0	6		-	0																		0	5	23	40	26	5	0
108	0	-	0	-	1	5		-	1																		0	2	12	35	38	12	1	0
107	0	-	0	-	0	6		-	1																			0	4	21	43	27	5	0
106	0	-	0	-	0	7		-	0																			0	1	9	34	43	12	0

Total:													0				0			0	1			1	3	18	30	31	11	4	2	0	0	0