Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 5.3%

106 points 27-6-4 29-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Detroit	+2.7-0.2-2.4-2.3-2.4-3.6		+0.2+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4
Nashville vs Toronto	+1.6+0.1*+0.1+0.1-1.2-2.0
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders	+0.4+0.1+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.6		+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1
Boston vs Dallas	-0.4-0.2+0.3+0.2+0.3+0.6
Carolina vs Columbus	-0.5-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3		-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Ottawa	+0.3-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.3-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

127	7	-	0	-	0	0		-	0	98.3	%	No		4		29		47		19	2	0							11,964
126	6	-	1	-	0	0		-	0	95.3		No		1		17		47		30	5	0							12,660
125	6	-	0	-	0	0		-	1	86.5		No		0		6		36		44	13	0	0						45,584	*
124	6	-	0	-	0	1		-	0	71.1		No		0		2		21		49	28	1	0						122,482	*
123	5	-	1	-	0	1		-	0	53.5		No				0		11		42	42	4	0						154,035	*
122	5	-	0	-	0	1		-	1	33.7		No				0		4		30	56	10	0						163,807
	5	-	0	-	1	1		-	0	35.4		No				0		4		31	54	10	0						162,991	*
121	5	-	0	-	0	2		-	0	18.3		No				0		1		17	62	19	1						253,782
	4	-	1	-	0	1		-	1	18.8		No				0		1		18	61	19	1						130,473
	4	-	1	-	1	1		-	0	19.4		No				0		1		18	61	19	1						134,458	*
120	4	-	1	-	0	2		-	0	8.8		No				0		0		8	57	32	3						201,951
	4	-	0	-	1	1		-	1	8.8		No						0		9	57	32	3						133,994
	4	-	0	-	0	1		-	2	8.8		No						0		8	57	32	3						259,583	*
119	4	-	0	-	0	2		-	1	3.5		No						0		3	46	43	7						403,173
	4	-	0	-	1	2		-	0	3.7		No						0		4	46	43	7						207,486
	3	-	1	-	1	1		-	1	3.5		No						0		3	46	44	7						293,320	*
118	4	-	0	-	0	3		-	0	1.0		No						0		1	34	52	13						418,332
	3	-	1	-	0	2		-	1	1.1		No						0		1	34	52	14						256,543
	3	-	1	-	1	2		-	0	1.0		No						0		1	34	52	14						223,725	*
	3	-	0	-	1	1		-	2	1.0		No						0		1	34	52	14						166,143	*
117	3	-	1	-	0	3		-	0	0.2		No								0	21	55	24						265,544
	3	-	0	-	1	2		-	1	0.2		No								0	21	55	24						263,503
	3	-	0	-	0	2		-	2	0.2		No								0	21	55	24						245,545
	3	-	0	-	2	2		-	0	0.3		No								0	21	54	25						264,369	*
116	3	-	0	-	0	3		-	1	0.1		No								0	12	51	38						510,029
	3	-	0	-	1	3		-	0	0.1		No								0	11	51	38						272,401
	2	-	1	-	1	2		-	1	0.1		No								0	11	51	38						243,408	*
	2	-	2	-	0	3		-	0	0.0		No								0	11	51	38						188,663	*
115	3	-	0	-	0	4		-	0	0.0		No								0	6	43	51						396,511
	2	-	1	-	0	3		-	1	0.0		No								0	6	43	51						243,740
	2	-	1	-	1	3		-	0	0.0		No								0	6	43	51						130,734
	2	-	0	-	1	2		-	2	0.0		No								0	6	43	51						211,009	*
	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	3	0.0		No								0	6	43	51						132,694	*
114	2	-	0	-	1	3		-	1	Out		No									2	32	66						250,249
	2	-	0	-	0	3		-	2	Out		No									2	32	66						225,506
	2	-	1	-	0	4		-	0	Out		No									2	32	66						189,594
	2	-	0	-	2	3		-	0	Out		No									2	31	67						228,638	*
113	2	-	0	-	0	4		-	1	Out		No									1	21	78	0					350,280
	2	-	0	-	1	4		-	0	Out		No									1	21	78	0					194,457
	1	-	1	-	1	3		-	1	Out		No									1	21	78	0	0				276,812	*
112	2	-	0	-	0	5		-	0	Out		No									0	13	86	1	0				216,759
	1	-	0	-	1	3		-	2	Out		No									0	13	86	1	0				139,788	*
	1	-	1	-	0	4		-	1	Out		No									0	13	86	1	0				224,004	*
111	1	-	0	-	1	4		-	1	Out		No									0	6	91	2	0				214,150	*
	1	-	1	-	0	5		-	0	Out		No									0	6	92	2	0				146,609	*
110	1	-	0	-	0	5		-	1	Out		No									0	2	91	7	0				258,168	*
109	1	-	0	-	0	6		-	0	Out		No										1	83	15	0				131,706	*
108	0	-	0	-	1	5		-	1	Out		No										0	75	24	2	0			52,736	*
107	0	-	0	-	0	6		-	1	Out		No											57	38	5	0			28,297	*
106	0	-	0	-	0	7		-	0	Out		No											38	52	10	0			8,611

Total:										5.3	%	No		0		0		1		4	21	34	39	1	0	0			10,261,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Detroit	-0.4-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.6
Carolina vs Columbus	+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders	-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1

What If

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

127	7	-	0	-	0	0		-	0				4				29			4	44			18	1	2	0
126	6	-	1	-	0	0		-	0				1				17			2	45			27	3	5	0
125	6	-	0	-	0	0		-	1				0				6			1	35			34	11	13	0	0
124	6	-	0	-	0	1		-	0				0				2			0	21			32	17	28	1	0
123	5	-	1	-	0	1		-	0								0			0	11			21	21	42	4	0
122	5	-	0	-	0	1		-	1								0			0	4			11	20	55	10	0
121	5	-	0	-	0	2		-	0								0				1			4	13	62	19	1
	4	-	1	-	0	1		-	1								0				1			5	13	61	19	1
	4	-	1	-	1	1		-	0								0				1			5	13	61	19	1
120	4	-	1	-	0	2		-	0								0				0			1	7	57	32	3
	4	-	0	-	1	1		-	1												0			1	7	57	32	3
	4	-	0	-	0	1		-	2												0			1	7	57	32	3
	3	-	2	-	0	1		-	1												0			1	8	57	31	3
119	4	-	0	-	0	2		-	1												0			0	3	46	43	7
	4	-	0	-	1	2		-	0												0			0	3	46	43	7
	3	-	1	-	1	1		-	1												0			0	3	46	44	7
118	4	-	0	-	0	3		-	0												0			0	1	34	52	14	0	0
	3	-	1	-	0	2		-	1												0			0	1	33	52	14	0
	3	-	1	-	1	2		-	0												0			0	1	34	51	14	0
	3	-	0	-	0	1		-	3												0			0	1	33	52	14	0
117	3	-	1	-	0	3		-	0															0	0	20	54	25	0	0
	3	-	0	-	1	2		-	1															0	0	21	54	25	0	0
	3	-	0	-	0	2		-	2															0	0	20	54	25	0	0
	3	-	0	-	2	2		-	0															0	0	20	54	25	0	0
116	3	-	0	-	0	3		-	1																0	11	49	38	1	0
	3	-	0	-	1	3		-	0																0	11	49	38	1	0
	2	-	1	-	1	2		-	1																0	11	49	38	1	0
	2	-	2	-	0	3		-	0																0	11	49	39	1	0
115	3	-	0	-	0	4		-	0																0	5	39	51	5	0	0
	2	-	1	-	0	3		-	1																0	5	39	50	5	0	0
	2	-	1	-	1	3		-	0																0	5	40	50	5	0	0
	2	-	0	-	1	2		-	2																0	5	39	51	6	0	0
	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	3																0	5	38	51	6	0	0
114	2	-	0	-	1	3		-	1																	2	26	60	12	1	0
	2	-	0	-	0	3		-	2																	2	25	60	12	1	0
	2	-	1	-	0	4		-	0																	2	26	60	11	1	0
	2	-	0	-	2	3		-	0																	2	26	60	11	1	0
113	2	-	0	-	0	4		-	1																	0	14	59	23	3	0
	2	-	0	-	1	4		-	0																	0	14	60	23	3	0
	1	-	1	-	1	3		-	1																	0	14	60	22	3	0
112	2	-	0	-	0	5		-	0																	0	6	48	36	10	1	0
	1	-	1	-	0	4		-	1																	0	6	48	36	10	1	0
	1	-	0	-	1	3		-	2																	0	6	46	37	10	1	0
111	1	-	0	-	1	4		-	1																	0	2	32	43	20	3	0	0
	1	-	1	-	0	5		-	0																	0	2	35	42	18	3	0
110	1	-	0	-	0	5		-	1																		0	17	40	32	10	1	0
109	1	-	0	-	0	6		-	0																		0	7	27	40	23	3	0
108	0	-	0	-	1	5		-	1																		0	2	15	38	36	9	1
107	0	-	0	-	0	6		-	1																			0	5	25	45	22	3	0
106	0	-	0	-	0	7		-	0																			0	1	11	40	40	7	0

Total:													0				0			0	1			2	3	21	32	29	9	3	1	0	0	0