Miami Heat Playoff Chances 2012-2013 50/50

Beat Oklahoma City 103-97, playoff odds up 0.8 to 97.7%

19-6 .760

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Miami 103 Oklahoma City 97	+0.9		+0.2
LA Lakers 100 New York 94			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Charlotte vs Miami	-0.7-0.7+0.7+0.7		-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.2
Orlando vs New Orleans	-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1
Memphis vs Philadelphia	+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1
San Antonio vs Toronto	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Detroit			-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Miami finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

61	-76				In		100															362	*
60		41	-	16	In		100	0														480
59		40	-	17	In		100															1,158
58		39	-	18	In		100	0		0												2,477
57		38	-	19	In		100	0		0												5,158
56		37	-	20	In		99	1		0												9,957
55		36	-	21	In		99	1		0												17,437
54		35	-	22	In		97	3	0	0												28,522
53		34	-	23	In		94	5	0	1												42,939
52		33	-	24	In		89	10	0	2												60,970
51		32	-	25	In		80	16	0	3	0											80,455
50		31	-	26	In		69	25	1	5	0											98,911
49		30	-	27	In		54	34	3	9	0	0										113,968
48		29	-	28	In		36	41	7	15	1	0										122,523
47		28	-	29	In		20	43	14	21	2	0	0									122,756
46		27	-	30	In		9	36	22	26	7	1	0									114,364
45		26	-	31	In		3	23	29	26	15	4	0	0								99,014
44		25	-	32	100.0	%	0	11	30	20	24	11	3	0	0							80,407
43		24	-	33	99.7		0	4	25	11	25	22	10	2	0	0						61,515
42		23	-	34	97.5			1	18	3	16	27	23	10	2	0	0					43,651
41		22	-	35	87.6			0	11	1	6	18	29	24	10	2	0	0				28,386
40		21	-	36	64.2			0	5	0	1	7	20	31	24	10	2	0	0			17,566
39		20	-	37	33.3				2	0	0	1	8	22	33	24	9	1	0			9,876
38		19	-	38	10.6				1			0	2	8	25	34	23	6	1	0		5,159
37		18	-	39	2.3				0				0	2	10	28	35	19	5	0		2,549
36		17	-	40	0.1									0	2	17	33	31	13	4	0	1,125
35		16	-	41	Out										0	5	21	35	26	10	2	483
34		15	-	42	Out											1	7	28	37	24	3	177
33		14	-	43	Out													23	43	27	7	44
32		13	-	44	Out													12	18	53	18	17
31		12	-	45	Out															71	29	7
19		0	-	57	Out																100	96

Total:					97.7	%	37	23	12	12	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1,172,509

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami 103 Oklahoma City 97	-0.5
LA Lakers 100 New York 94	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Charlotte vs Miami	+0.5+0.4-0.5-0.4
Atlanta vs Detroit	+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.1
Phoenix vs New York	-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1
Orlando vs New Orleans	+0.0+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

61	-76				100
60		41	-	16	100	0	0
59		40	-	17	99	1
58		39	-	18	98	2	0				0
57		38	-	19	97	3	0				0
56		37	-	20	92	7	1	0			0
55		36	-	21	86	13	1				0
54		35	-	22	76	21	3	0	0		0
53		34	-	23	61	33	5	0	0		1	0
52		33	-	24	44	45	9	1	0		2	0
51		32	-	25	26	54	13	3	0	0	3	0	0
50		31	-	26	12	56	16	8	1	0	5	0	0
49		30	-	27	4	49	16	19	3	0	8	2	0		0
48		29	-	28	1	36	11	31	5	2	10	5	1	0	0
47		28	-	29	0	20	5	38	8	6	10	11	2	0	0	0	0
46		27	-	30	0	9	1	35	8	14	6	20	5	2	1	0	0	0
45		26	-	31		3	0	23	5	24	2	24	7	8	3	1	0	0	0
44		25	-	32		0	0	11	2	28	0	20	4	19	6	5	2	0	0	0	0
43		24	-	33		0		4	1	25	0	11	1	24	6	17	6	4	2	0	0	0
42		23	-	34				1	0	18		3	0	16	1	25	6	17	7	4	2	0	0	0
41		22	-	35				0	0	11		1		6	0	18	2	27	6	17	6	4	2	1	0	0
40		21	-	36				0		5		0		1		7	0	20	2	29	6	10	11	6	2	1	0	0
39		20	-	37						2		0		0		1		8	0	22	2	7	15	18	14	7	2	0	0
38		19	-	38						1						0		2		8	0	1	6	15	24	23	13	6	2	0
37		18	-	39						0								0		2		0	1	4	11	21	27	20	10	4	0
36		17	-	40																0			0	0	1	8	20	29	22	14	4	1	0
35		16	-	41																						2	6	16	25	31	14	5	2
34		15	-	42																								4	14	29	29	18	6	1
33		14	-	43																									2	23	34	23	16	2
32		13	-	44																										12	24	35	18	12
31		12	-	45																												43	57
19		0	-	57																														100

Total:					13	25	6	16	3	8	4	8	2	4	1	3	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0