Denver Nuggets Playoff Chances 2012-2013 50/50

Lost to LA Clippers 100-112, playoff odds down 6.2 to 48.7%

15-14 .517

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
LA Clippers 112 Denver 100	-4.8		-0.4
LA Lakers 100 New York 94	-0.6		-0.0
Chicago 97 Houston 120	-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Denver vs LA Lakers	+5.7+5.6-5.9-5.7		+0.4+0.4-0.4-0.4
Utah vs Golden State	-0.2-0.8+0.2+0.2
Phoenix vs New York	-0.4-0.4+0.6+0.4
Portland vs Sacramento	-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

57	-68				In		100															116	*
56		41	-	12	In		98	3														40
55		40	-	13	In		87	9		4												100
54		39	-	14	In		86	8	1	5												318
53		38	-	15	In		73	16	2	9												781
52		37	-	16	In		60	25	2	12	0											1,963
51		36	-	17	In		41	32	6	20	0	0										4,275
50		35	-	18	In		25	35	10	28	2											8,329
49		34	-	19	In		12	31	15	36	6	0										15,570
48		33	-	20	In		4	21	20	39	14	2	0									26,511
47		32	-	21	100.0	%	1	11	20	35	26	7	1	0	0							41,606
46		31	-	22	100.0		0	4	16	23	35	17	4	0	0							59,881
45		30	-	23	99.7		0	1	10	11	31	30	14	3	0	0	0					81,014
44		29	-	24	97.2			0	5	3	17	33	27	12	3	0	0					101,293
43		28	-	25	86.3			0	2	1	6	20	32	25	11	3	0	0				117,864
42		27	-	26	61.3			0	1	0	1	7	21	32	25	11	2	0	0			126,701
41		26	-	27	30.9				0	0	0	1	8	22	31	25	11	2	0	0		126,125
40		25	-	28	9.8				0		0	0	2	8	22	32	25	9	2	0		117,854
39		24	-	29	1.9				0			0	0	2	9	24	33	23	8	1	0	101,438
38		23	-	30	0.2								0	0	2	11	28	35	20	4	0	81,140
37		22	-	31	0.0									0	0	3	15	34	35	13	1	60,055
36		21	-	32	Out										0	1	5	22	41	27	3	41,553
35		20	-	33	Out											0	1	11	36	42	10	26,523
34		19	-	34	Out												0	4	25	51	20	15,610
33		18	-	35	Out												0	1	14	52	33	8,301
32		17	-	36	Out													0	6	46	47	4,207
31		16	-	37	Out													0	3	35	62	1,938
30		15	-	38	Out														0	27	73	815
29		14	-	39	Out														0	19	80	333
28		13	-	40	Out															11	89	99
27		12	-	41	Out															5	95	42
15	-26				Out																100	114	*

Total:					48.7	%	1	2	4	5	7	9	10	10	11	10	10	8	7	4	1	1,172,509

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
LA Clippers 112 Denver 100	+0.7
Miami 103 Oklahoma City 97	-0.1
Chicago 97 Houston 120	+0.0
LA Lakers 100 New York 94	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver vs LA Lakers	-0.8-0.8+0.8+0.8
Phoenix vs New York	+0.0+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Utah vs Golden State	+0.0*+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

57	-68				100
56		41	-	12	98		3
55		40	-	13	81	6	9				4
54		39	-	14	81	5	8		1		5
53		38	-	15	60	13	16		2		9
52		37	-	16	45	15	25	0	2		12	0	0
51		36	-	17	25	16	31	1	6		20	0	0		0
50		35	-	18	11	15	32	3	10	0	27	1	2
49		34	-	19	3	9	25	6	15	0	33	2	6		0
48		33	-	20	1	4	13	8	19	1	34	5	14	0	2		0
47		32	-	21	0	1	4	6	18	2	26	9	25	0	7	0	1		0		0
46		31	-	22	0	0	1	3	13	4	12	11	33	2	17	0	4		0		0
45		30	-	23		0	0	1	6	4	3	8	25	6	29	1	14	0	3		0	0	0
44		29	-	24			0	0	2	3	0	3	9	8	29	4	27	0	12	0	3	0	0
43		28	-	25				0	0	2	0	1	1	4	13	8	29	3	25	0	11	3	0	0
42		27	-	26				0	0	1		0	0	1	2	5	14	7	29	3	25	11	2	0	0
41		26	-	27					0	0		0	0	0	0	1	2	5	15	7	29	25	12	3	0	0	0
40		25	-	28						0				0	0	0	0	1	3	5	16	29	27	14	4	1	0	0
39		24	-	29						0						0		0	0	2	4	13	26	28	18	8	2	0	0	0
38		23	-	30														0		0	0	2	9	20	27	23	12	4	1	0	0
37		22	-	31																0	0	0	1	6	15	25	27	17	7	2	0	0
36		21	-	32																		0	0	1	3	11	23	29	21	9	2	0	0	0
35		20	-	33																				0	0	2	9	21	30	24	11	3	0	0
34		19	-	34																					0	0	2	8	21	30	25	11	2	0
33		18	-	35																						0	0	2	8	23	33	24	9	1
32		17	-	36																						0	0	0	2	10	26	35	21	5
31		16	-	37																									0	3	15	33	35	14
30		15	-	38																										1	6	24	41	28
29		14	-	39																											2	14	44	41
28		13	-	40																												4	38	58
27		12	-	41																												5	17	79
26		11	-	42																													8	92
15	-25																																	100

Total:					0	0	1	1	3	1	3	2	6	2	7	2	8	2	9	2	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0