Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 1st 50/50

Beat Philadelphia 4-1, playoff odds up 2.1 to 52.8%
4 points   2 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Philadelphia 1 Toronto 4 +4.2
+0.9
+0.5
ThursdayNone

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
123-164InYes100185*
1225416-10InYes94671*
1215417-9In99.1%9811111*
1205317-10In98.49514184*
1195318-9In99.396121287*
1185319-8In97.6950410420*
1175219-9In97.293150615*
1165220-899.6%95.39225100854*
1155120-9In92.188371001,144*
1145121-899.990.58630820001,509*
1135021-9100.085.6855091002,035*
1124921-1099.880.6806010311002,713*
1114922-999.673.376901031000003,522*
1104923-899.464.4701211232100004,441*
1094823-999.054.1631511252110005,710*
1084723-1098.844.4581720135311000006,933*
1074724-998.432.1492120147321000008,478*
1064624-1097.223.1432340147421100000010,533*
1054625-996.214.034256015853211000012,201*
1044525-1094.97.22627811410642110000014,259*
1034526-993.33.320271011410753211000016,317*
1024426-1090.71.214251321410754211000018,356*
1014427-988.20.39221531312864321100020,551*
1004327-1084.30.16181641211976432110022,429*
994328-980.3No41516611111086542110024,358*
984228-1076.2No21116710111097643210025,847*
974229-971.0No1815891011108754211027,165*
964129-1065.8No15131081010109865321028,250*
954130-960.2No03101179101010876432128,844*
944030-1054.2No0281168101010987542128,855*
934031-948.0No0161157910101098643128,451*
923931-1041.9No0041046891010109864128,088*
913932-936.2No0039357910111110975227,388*
903832-1031.5No0282468101011111086325,717*
893833-925.8No0172357910111111108423,984*
883733-1021.0No01613468101111121110622,044*
873734-916.6No0051245791112131311719,839*
863634-1013.4No041234681012141413918,006*
853635-911.0No031124579111415151216,025*
843535-108.4No020123568111417171513,856*
833536-96.1No020112357111317201712,238*
823436-104.5No010112357101316212110,149*
813336-113.5No0100112368121723258,518*
803337-102.5No100012357111724296,890*
793338-91.9No000011246101625345,678*
783238-101.0No00000123581525394,570*
773138-110.5No0000123581325443,624*
763139-100.7No0000112371224502,774*
753140-90.4No000011261123552,138*
743040-100.1No00001251023581,638*
732940-110.2No00001131022621,203*
722941-10OutNo01372367806*
712841-110.1No0000241676675*
702842-10OutNo00251775463*
692843-9OutNo1151479367*
682743-10OutNo121187218*
672744-9OutNo1141184140*
662644-10OutNo1128794*
652645-9OutNo279261*
642545-10OutNo89251*
62-63OutNo10051*
612548-7OutNo109010*
4-60OutNo10069*
Total:52.8%4.9%8765666666666665603,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 1 Toronto 4 -0.9
Colorado 5 Anaheim 4 (so)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Los Angeles*-0.0*+0.0-0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.0
Boston vs Tampa Bay*-0.0*-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
122-164100
1215417-9991
1205317-10982
1195318-9991
1185319-8982
1175219-9973
1165220-8955
1155120-99280
1145121-89091
1135021-9861400
1124921-10811810
1114922-9732430
1104923-86430500
1094823-954369100
1084723-10443914200
1074724-93242205100
1064624-1023382610200
1054625-9143231165100
1044525-10724322410300
1034526-9315282717720000
1024426-10171927241461000
1014427-90310222621125100
1004327-1001412212520114100
994328-9015132124191141000
984228-100025122023201252000
974229-9000141118222113621000
964129-100014916222115831000
954130-90001371420221710410000
944030-100000251118221913621000
934031-900013916212116941000
923931-10000126121922191152000
913932-9000141017212014731000
903832-10000137142022171041000
893833-90000251219221912620000
883733-10000014101722211573100
873734-90001381622231683100
863634-1000137152123179310
853635-9000127142324178300
843535-100012715242517720
833536-9001381825251551
823436-10001411212824112
813336-110015142629205
803337-10002821312810
793338-9001413293419
783238-100028263926
773138-11004174137
763139-1001113949
753140-90173359
743040-10042966
732940-11022375
722941-1011881
712841-11011287
702842-1001090
692843-9892
682743-10793
672744-9496
662644-10298
652645-9397
4-64100
Total:554444444444333333333333333222