Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances 1st

Lost to Toronto 1-4, playoff odds down 7.5 to 41.9%

0 points 0 1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 1 Toronto 4	-3.5		-0.9		-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Calgary	-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.2
Dallas vs Florida	+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

125	-162						In		Yes		100																166	*
124		58	15		-	8	In		Yes		78					22											9	*
123		57	15		-	9	In		Yes		86					5	9										22	*
122		55	14		-	12	In		97.2	%	97						3										36	*
121		55	15		-	11	In		Yes		88				12												69	*
120		56	17		-	8	In		97.3		81				14	5											73	*
119		55	17		-	9	99.3	%	Yes		89				7	2	1		1								141	*
118		54	17		-	10	In		98.4		86	1			10	2	0										243	*
117		54	18		-	9	98.8		97.9		85	1			10	2	1		0	0		0	0				341	*
116		53	18		-	10	99.5		96.9		86	1			8	3	1	0	0		0						556	*
115		53	19		-	9	99.3		92.1		78	3			11	4	1	1	0	0	0		0				823	*
114		53	20		-	8	99.3		90.6		78	3			12	4	1	1	1		0						1,149	*
113		52	20		-	9	98.6		84.3		73	5			12	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			1,635	*
112		51	20		-	10	98.3		78.9		69	7	0		12	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0				2,261	*
111		51	21		-	9	97.6		71.9		65	8	0		15	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0		0		3,147	*
110		50	21		-	10	96.7		64.0		61	10	0		13	7	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		0	4,362	*
109		50	22		-	9	96.4		53.7		55	12	1		15	7	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5,810	*
108		49	22		-	10	95.3		42.2		49	15	1	0	15	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	7,821	*
107		49	23		-	9	94.4		31.1		42	18	2	0	15	9	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	10,086	*
106		48	23		-	10	92.3		21.0		36	20	3	0	15	9	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	12,909	*
105		48	24		-	9	90.9		12.5		30	21	4	0	16	10	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	16,077	*
104		47	24		-	10	89.2		6.9		25	22	6	0	15	10	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	19,997	*
103		47	25		-	9	87.5		2.8		19	22	7	1	15	11	7	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	24,405	*
102		46	25		-	10	84.9		1.1		14	21	9	1	14	11	8	6	5	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	29,566	*
101		46	26		-	9	82.0		0.3		11	20	11	2	13	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	35,121	*
100		45	26		-	10	78.7		0.0		7	18	12	3	13	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	40,857	*
99		45	27		-	9	75.8		0.0		5	15	13	4	12	11	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	46,542	*
98		44	27		-	10	72.5		0.0		3	12	14	5	11	11	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	52,690	*
97		44	28		-	9	68.8		No		2	9	14	6	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	58,832	*
96		43	28		-	10	64.8		No		1	7	13	7	10	10	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	65,296	*
95		43	29		-	9	61.0		No		1	5	11	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	2	1	70,790	*
94		42	29		-	10	57.1		No		0	3	10	9	8	9	9	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	1	75,920	*
93		41	29		-	11	52.8		No		0	2	8	10	7	9	9	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	80,216	*
92		41	30		-	10	48.5		No		0	1	6	10	6	8	8	8	9	8	8	7	7	6	4	3	82,822	*
91		41	31		-	9	44.7		No		0	1	5	10	6	7	8	8	9	8	8	8	7	6	5	3	85,430	*
90		40	31		-	10	40.7		No		0	0	4	10	5	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	4	85,661	*
89		39	31		-	11	36.1		No		0	0	2	9	4	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	5	85,957	*
88		39	32		-	10	32.9		No		0	0	2	9	4	5	6	7	8	8	9	9	10	9	8	6	84,323	*
87		38	32		-	11	29.1		No		0	0	1	8	3	5	6	7	8	8	9	10	10	10	9	7	81,934	*
86		38	33		-	10	25.2		No			0	1	7	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	11	8	78,212	*
85		37	33		-	11	22.3		No			0	0	6	2	3	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	12	10	73,345	*
84		37	34		-	10	19.4		No			0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	12	13	12	68,180	*
83		36	34		-	11	16.5		No			0	0	4	1	3	3	5	6	7	9	10	11	13	14	14	62,392	*
82		36	35		-	10	14.3		No				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	9	12	14	15	16	56,163	*
81		35	35		-	11	12.1		No				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	14	17	18	49,927	*
80		35	36		-	10	10.0		No				0	3	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	14	18	21	44,086	*
79		34	36		-	11	8.3		No				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	11	14	19	24	38,373	*
78		34	37		-	10	6.9		No					2	0	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	11	15	20	27	32,296	*
77		33	37		-	11	5.7		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	10	14	20	30	27,277	*
76		33	38		-	10	4.5		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	10	14	21	33	22,525	*
75		32	38		-	11	3.9		No					1	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	7	9	14	21	36	18,556	*
74		32	39		-	10	2.9		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	9	14	22	39	14,792	*
73		31	39		-	11	2.6		No					1	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	5	8	13	22	43	11,954	*
72		31	40		-	10	1.6		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	12	22	47	9,435	*
71		31	41		-	9	1.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	4	6	11	21	51	7,155	*
70		30	41		-	10	1.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	20	54	5,499	*
69		29	41		-	11	0.7		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	9	21	59	4,043	*
68		29	42		-	10	0.6		No					0			0	0	1	1	1	2	5	9	20	61	3,021	*
67		29	43		-	9	0.4		No					0				0	0	1	1	2	3	9	18	65	2,216	*
66		28	43		-	10	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	8	18	67	1,702	*
65		28	44		-	9	0.2		No								0	0	1	1	1	1	3	5	16	72	1,162	*
64		27	44		-	10	0.3		No					0			0			0	1	1	2	6	15	74	786	*
63		26	44		-	11	0.4		No								0	0			0	1	2	5	12	79	562	*
62		26	45		-	10	Out		No												1	1	2	3	12	82	380	*
61		25	45		-	11	0.4		No						0				1		0	0	1	4	11	82	265	*
60		26	47		-	8	Out		No											1			1	4	11	83	151	*
59		25	47		-	9	Out		No												1		1	2	8	89	122	*
58		24	47		-	10	Out		No												1		1		13	85	72	*
57		23	47		-	11	Out		No														2	4	12	82	50	*
56		22	47		-	12	Out		No															3	3	93	29	*
0	-55						Out		No																	100	177	*

Total:							41.9	%	1.6	%	3	4	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	8	8	9	1,809,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 1 Toronto 4	+1.1
Colorado 5 Anaheim 4 (so)	+0.0

Thursday	None

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

123	-162						100
122		55	14		-	12	97	3
121		55	15		-	11	100
120		56	17		-	8	97	3
119		55	17		-	9	100
118		54	17		-	10	98	2
117		54	18		-	9	98	2
116		53	18		-	10	97	3
115		53	19		-	9	92	8	0
114		53	20		-	8	91	9	0
113		52	20		-	9	84	15	1
112		51	20		-	10	79	20	2	0
111		51	21		-	9	72	25	3	0	0
110		50	21		-	10	64	30	6	1	0
109		50	22		-	9	54	35	10	1	0	0		0
108		49	22		-	10	42	39	15	3	0	0
107		49	23		-	9	31	40	22	6	1	0	0
106		48	23		-	10	21	37	28	11	3	0	0
105		48	24		-	9	13	31	31	18	6	1	0	0
104		47	24		-	10	7	23	31	24	11	3	1	0	0
103		47	25		-	9	3	14	27	28	19	8	2	0	0	0
102		46	25		-	10	1	7	18	27	25	15	6	2	0	0
101		46	26		-	9	0	3	9	20	26	22	13	5	1	0	0	0
100		45	26		-	10	0	1	4	11	21	25	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
99		45	27		-	9	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
98		44	27		-	10	0	0	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
97		44	28		-	9		0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	20	14	7	2	1	0	0
96		43	28		-	10			0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
95		43	29		-	9				0	0	0	1	2	7	14	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0	0
94		42	29		-	10						0	0	0	1	5	11	18	22	19	13	6	2	1	0	0	0			0
93		41	29		-	11							0	0	0	1	3	8	16	21	21	16	9	4	1	0	0	0	0
92		41	30		-	10							0	0	0	0	1	2	6	12	19	22	18	12	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
91		41	31		-	9										0	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	20	14	8	3	1	0	0	0
90		40	31		-	10									0		0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
89		39	31		-	11											0	0	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	6	2	0	0	0
88		39	32		-	10													0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
87		38	32		-	11														0	0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
86		38	33		-	10															0	0	0	0	1	3	8	15	22	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
85		37	33		-	11																	0	0	0	1	3	7	15	23	24	17	8	2	0	0
84		37	34		-	10																		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	24	24	16	7	2	0
83		36	34		-	11																			0	0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	14	4	1
82		36	35		-	10																				0	0	0	1	4	11	22	28	22	10	2
81		35	35		-	11																					0	0	0	1	5	15	26	30	18	5
80		35	36		-	10																						0	0	0	2	8	21	32	27	9
79		34	36		-	11																							0	0	1	4	14	30	34	16
78		34	37		-	10																								0	0	2	9	25	39	25
77		33	37		-	11																								0	0	1	5	19	41	35
76		33	38		-	10																								0	0	0	2	13	39	46
75		32	38		-	11																									0	0	1	8	35	56
74		32	39		-	10																										0	1	5	29	66
73		31	39		-	11																										0	0	3	23	74
72		31	40		-	10																										0	0	1	18	80
71		31	41		-	9																											0	1	13	86
70		30	41		-	10																												0	10	89
69		29	41		-	11																												0	8	92
68		29	42		-	10																												0	5	95
67		29	43		-	9																												0	3	97
66		28	43		-	10																													3	97
65		28	44		-	9																													1	99
64		27	44		-	10																													0	100
63		26	44		-	11																													2	98
62		26	45		-	10																													1	99
61		25	45		-	11																													0	100
60		26	47		-	8																														100
59		25	47		-	9																													1	99
0	-58																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6