Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 1st

Beat Anaheim 5-4 (so), playoff odds up 4.2 to 61.8%

2 points 1 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 5 Anaheim 4 (so)	*+0.7		+0.7		+0.1
Philadelphia 1 Toronto 4	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Dallas vs Florida	-0.3-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.3
Washington vs Calgary	+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.1-0.3-0.2
Phoenix vs NY Rangers	-0.2-0.2+0.3+0.2+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

129	-164						In		Yes		100																177	*
128		60	15		-	6	In		Yes		92				8												12	*
127		59	15		-	7	In		Yes		100																20	*
126		57	14		-	10	In		Yes		98				2												41	*
125		57	15		-	9	In		Yes		99				1												70	*
124		58	17		-	6	In		99.1	%	98				1	1											112	*
123		56	16		-	9	99.5	%	Yes		94				4	2			1								185	*
122		55	16		-	10	In		99.3		94	0			5	1											271	*
121		55	17		-	9	In		99.3		94				4	2		0									402	*
120		55	18		-	8	In		99.0		95	0			4	1	0	0									620	*
119		54	18		-	9	99.9		98.6		92	0			6	1	0	0	0								913	*
118		54	19		-	8	99.8		97.8		91	1			6	1	1	0	0	0							1,313	*
117		53	19		-	9	99.6		97.3		90	1			6	1	1	0	0	0	0		0				1,833	*
116		53	20		-	8	99.6		94.9		88	1			7	2	1	0	0	0		0					2,661	*
115		52	20		-	9	99.7		91.8		85	2			8	3	1	0	0	0	0		0				3,692	*
114		52	21		-	8	99.4		89.6		83	3			8	3	1	1	0	0	0	0					4,943	*
113		51	21		-	9	99.1		85.0		80	3	0		9	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			6,808	*
112		50	21		-	10	99.1		79.7		77	5	0		11	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0				8,650	*
111		50	22		-	9	98.4		72.4		73	7	0	0	11	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			11,178	*
110		49	22		-	10	98.1		63.5		68	9	0		11	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0				14,541	*
109		49	23		-	9	97.6		52.7		63	11	1		12	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			18,004	*
108		48	23		-	10	97.0		41.7		57	14	1		12	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			22,070	*
107		48	24		-	9	95.8		31.3		51	16	2	0	12	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0			26,585	*
106		47	24		-	10	95.0		21.2		45	19	2	0	12	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0			31,998	*
105		47	25		-	9	93.6		12.7		39	22	3	0	12	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0			37,541	*
104		46	25		-	10	92.3		6.7		32	24	5	0	12	9	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0			43,798	*
103		46	26		-	9	90.8		3.0		26	24	7	1	12	9	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	0			50,237	*
102		45	26		-	10	89.0		1.0		20	25	9	1	12	9	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0			56,290	*
101		45	27		-	9	86.6		0.3		16	24	11	1	11	10	8	6	5	3	2	2	1	0			62,457	*
100		44	27		-	10	84.1		0.0		11	22	13	2	11	10	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	0			68,224	*
99		44	28		-	9	81.6		0.0		8	19	15	3	11	10	9	7	6	5	3	2	1	1			73,210	*
98		43	28		-	10	78.5		No		5	17	16	4	10	10	9	8	7	5	4	3	2	1			78,494	*
97		43	29		-	9	75.4		No		3	14	16	6	10	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	2	1			81,917	*
96		42	29		-	10	71.7		No		2	10	16	7	9	10	9	9	8	7	6	4	3	1			84,224	*
95		42	30		-	9	68.5		No		1	8	15	9	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	3	2			85,940	*
94		41	30		-	10	64.5		No		1	5	14	10	7	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	4	2			86,027	*
93		41	31		-	9	60.5		No		0	4	12	11	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	6	5	3			85,694	*
92		40	31		-	10	56.3		No		0	2	10	12	6	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	3			83,615	*
91		40	32		-	9	52.4		No		0	1	8	12	5	7	9	9	10	9	9	8	7	4			79,946	*
90		39	32		-	10	48.4		No		0	1	6	13	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	5			75,740	*
89		39	33		-	9	44.0		No		0	0	4	12	4	6	8	9	10	10	11	10	9	6			70,722	*
88		38	33		-	10	40.0		No		0	0	3	12	3	6	7	9	10	10	11	11	10	8			65,532	*
87		38	34		-	9	36.5		No			0	2	11	3	5	7	8	9	11	11	12	11	9			58,982	*
86		37	34		-	10	32.7		No		0	0	1	10	3	4	6	8	9	11	12	12	12	11			52,956	*
85		37	35		-	9	29.0		No			0	1	9	2	4	6	8	9	11	12	13	14	13			46,729	*
84		36	35		-	10	25.7		No			0	1	8	2	3	5	7	9	10	12	14	15	14			40,956	*
83		36	36		-	9	22.6		No			0	0	7	2	3	5	6	8	10	12	14	16	17			35,200	*
82		35	36		-	10	19.3		No				0	6	1	2	4	5	8	10	12	15	17	19			29,787	*
81		35	37		-	9	17.1		No			0	0	5	1	2	4	5	7	9	12	15	19	21			24,810	*
80		34	37		-	10	14.4		No				0	4	1	2	3	4	6	9	11	15	20	24			20,568	*
79		34	38		-	9	12.3		No				0	3	1	1	3	4	6	8	11	15	21	27			16,533	*
78		33	38		-	10	9.8		No				0	3	1	1	2	3	5	7	11	15	21	31			13,227	*
77		33	39		-	9	8.7		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	22	34			10,558	*
76		32	39		-	10	6.7		No					2	0	1	1	3	4	6	9	14	22	38			8,312	*
75		32	40		-	9	5.7		No					1	0	1	2	2	4	6	8	12	23	40			6,238	*
74		31	40		-	10	4.6		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	13	21	45			4,775	*
73		31	41		-	9	3.5		No					1	0	0	1	1	3	4	8	11	22	49			3,639	*
72		30	41		-	10	3.3		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	11	21	52			2,611	*
71		29	41		-	11	2.7		No					1		0	1	1	2	3	6	10	20	56			1,949	*
70		29	42		-	10	1.9		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	2	5	10	19	59			1,354	*
69		29	43		-	9	1.5		No						0	0	0	1	1	2	7	9	20	61			931	*
68		28	43		-	10	0.7		No					1				0	1	3	4	10	18	64			689	*
67		28	44		-	9	0.4		No							0	0		0	2	2	7	19	70			459	*
66		27	44		-	10	1.0		No					0		0		0	1	2	4	5	13	75			312	*
65		27	45		-	9	0.9		No					0				0	0	0	1	4	18	75			219	*
64		26	45		-	10	Out		No										2	1	2	9	9	78			131	*
63		26	46		-	9	Out		No										1	1		7	14	77			86	*
62		25	46		-	10	Out		No										2		4		12	82			49	*
61		25	47		-	9	Out		No												3		17	80			30	*
60		24	47		-	10	Out		No													3	10	87			30	*
58	-59						Out		No															100			17	*
57		23	49		-	9	Out		No														100				2	*
2	-56						Out		No															100			154	*

Total:							61.8	%	5.0	%	10	9	8	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6			1,809,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 5 Anaheim 4 (so)	-0.8

Thursday	None

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

125	-164						100
124		57	16		-	8	99	1
123		56	16		-	9	100
122		55	16		-	10	99	1
121		55	17		-	9	99	1
120		55	18		-	8	99	1
119		54	18		-	9	99	1
118		54	19		-	8	98	2
117		53	19		-	9	97	3	0
116		53	20		-	8	95	5	0
115		52	20		-	9	92	8	0
114		52	21		-	8	90	10	0
113		51	21		-	9	85	14	1
112		50	21		-	10	80	19	2	0	0
111		50	22		-	9	72	24	3	0
110		49	22		-	10	63	30	6	0	0
109		49	23		-	9	53	36	10	1	0	0
108		48	23		-	10	42	40	15	3	0	0
107		48	24		-	9	31	40	21	6	1	0
106		47	24		-	10	21	38	27	11	2	0	0
105		47	25		-	9	13	31	32	18	6	1	0	0
104		46	25		-	10	7	22	31	24	11	3	1	0	0	0
103		46	26		-	9	3	14	26	28	18	8	2	0	0	0
102		45	26		-	10	1	7	18	27	24	15	6	2	0	0	0
101		45	27		-	9	0	3	10	20	26	22	13	5	1	0	0	0
100		44	27		-	10	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
99		44	28		-	9	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
98		43	28		-	10		0	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	12	6	2	0	0	0	0
97		43	29		-	9			0	0	1	4	10	18	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0		0
96		42	29		-	10			0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
95		42	30		-	9				0	0	0	1	2	7	14	20	22	17	10	5	2	0	0	0	0
94		41	30		-	10					0	0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
93		41	31		-	9							0	0	0	1	3	9	15	21	21	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
92		40	31		-	10								0	0	0	1	2	6	13	19	22	18	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
91		40	32		-	9										0	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	20	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
90		39	32		-	10										0	0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
89		39	33		-	9												0	0	0	1	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	6	2	0	0	0
88		38	33		-	10													0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
87		38	34		-	9															0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0
86		37	34		-	10																0	0	0	1	3	8	15	22	23	16	8	3	1	0
85		37	35		-	9																0	0	0	0	1	3	7	15	23	23	17	8	2	0	0
84		36	35		-	10																		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	24	24	16	7	2	0
83		36	36		-	9																				0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	14	4	1
82		35	36		-	10																			0		0	0	1	4	11	21	28	23	10	2
81		35	37		-	9																					0	0	0	1	6	15	26	30	18	4
80		34	37		-	10																						0	0	0	2	8	21	32	27	9
79		34	38		-	9																							0	0	1	5	15	30	34	16
78		33	38		-	10																								0	0	2	9	25	39	25
77		33	39		-	9																								0	0	1	5	19	40	35
76		32	39		-	10																										0	2	13	38	46
75		32	40		-	9																										0	1	8	34	56
74		31	40		-	10																										0	0	5	29	66
73		31	41		-	9																											0	3	24	73
72		30	41		-	10																											0	1	18	80
71		29	41		-	11																												1	15	84
70		29	42		-	10																												0	9	91
69		29	43		-	9																												0	6	93
68		28	43		-	10																												0	6	94
67		28	44		-	9																												0	5	95
66		27	44		-	10																													2	98
65		27	45		-	9																													2	98
64		26	45		-	10																													1	99
2	-63																																			100

Total:							5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2