Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 1st 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 57.3%

0 points 0 0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 5 Anaheim 4 (so)					*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Calgary	-3.7-0.4-0.4+1.0*+0.1+3.7		-0.9-0.1-0.1+0.7+0.7+0.7		-0.4-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.4
Phoenix vs NY Rangers	-0.4-0.1-0.1-0.3+0.2+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-164						In		Yes		100																146	*
121		57	18		-	7	In		Yes		97				3												67	*
120		56	18		-	8	In		Yes		100																80	*
119		55	18		-	9	In		99.4	%	97	1			3												156	*
118		54	18		-	10	In		97.5		98				2	0											238	*
117		54	19		-	9	In		97.1		96	1			3												312	*
116		54	20		-	8	In		96.6		94	1			4	1											470	*
115		53	20		-	9	In		94.1		93	2			4	0	0										699	*
114		52	20		-	10	In		90.5		91	2			5	1	0										938	*
113		52	21		-	9	In		87.6		88	4	0		7	1	0										1,320	*
112		52	22		-	8	99.8	%	81.0		84	6	0		8	1	1	0	0	0	0						1,830	*
111		51	22		-	9	In		73.6		80	8	0		8	2	1	0									2,332	*
110		50	22		-	10	99.8		64.2		74	11	0		10	3	1	0	0	0							2,975	*
109		50	23		-	9	99.7		55.2		70	13	1	0	11	3	1	0	0	0							3,908	*
108		49	23		-	10	99.6		44.1		65	16	1		12	4	2	1	0	0	0						4,960	*
107		49	24		-	9	99.3		33.3		57	20	2	0	13	5	2	1	0	0	0		0				6,232	*
106		48	24		-	10	99.2		22.6		48	24	3	0	15	6	3	1	0	0	0	0					7,516	*
105		48	25		-	9	98.7		14.1		42	26	5	0	15	7	3	2	1	0	0	0					9,037	*
104		47	25		-	10	98.1		7.5		34	28	7	0	15	8	4	2	1	0	0	0		0			10,942	*
103		47	26		-	9	97.2		3.2		25	29	10	1	16	9	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0			12,821	*
102		46	26		-	10	95.9		1.3		19	28	12	2	16	10	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0			15,181	*
101		46	27		-	9	94.2		0.4		13	26	15	2	16	10	7	4	3	2	1	0	0	0			16,753	*
100		45	27		-	10	92.6		0.1		10	24	17	4	15	11	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0			18,935	*
99		45	28		-	9	90.4		0.0		6	20	18	5	14	12	9	6	4	3	2	1	0	0			20,829	*
98		44	28		-	10	87.5		No		3	16	19	7	13	12	10	7	5	3	2	1	1	0			22,878	*
97		44	29		-	9	83.4		No		2	12	19	9	12	12	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	0			24,736	*
96		43	29		-	10	80.7		No		1	8	17	10	11	12	11	9	7	5	4	2	1	0			25,746	*
95		43	30		-	9	75.9		No		1	5	15	12	10	12	12	10	8	6	5	3	2	0			26,958	*
94		42	30		-	10	70.6		No		0	3	12	13	9	11	11	11	9	8	6	4	2	1			27,978	*
93		42	31		-	9	65.2		No		0	2	10	14	7	10	11	11	10	9	7	5	3	1			28,510	*
92		41	31		-	10	60.0		No		0	1	7	14	6	9	11	11	11	10	8	6	4	1			28,249	*
91		41	32		-	9	54.3		No		0	1	5	13	5	8	10	11	11	11	9	7	5	2			28,354	*
90		40	32		-	10	48.3		No		0	0	3	13	4	7	9	11	12	12	11	9	6	3			27,599	*
89		40	33		-	9	42.5		No		0	0	2	11	4	6	9	10	12	12	12	10	8	4			26,263	*
88		39	33		-	10	36.6		No			0	1	10	3	5	8	10	12	13	13	12	9	5			25,296	*
87		38	33		-	11	30.7		No			0	1	8	2	4	7	9	11	13	14	13	11	7			23,159	*
86		38	34		-	10	26.6		No			0	0	7	2	4	6	8	11	12	14	15	13	9			21,680	*
85		37	34		-	11	21.8		No				0	6	1	3	5	7	9	12	14	16	15	11			19,483	*
84		37	35		-	10	17.6		No				0	5	1	2	4	6	9	11	14	17	18	14			17,369	*
83		36	35		-	11	14.4		No				0	4	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	17	20	17			15,734	*
82		36	36		-	10	11.0		No				0	3	0	1	2	4	7	10	13	17	21	21			13,738	*
81		36	37		-	9	8.5		No				0	2	0	1	2	4	6	9	13	18	23	24			11,466	*
80		35	37		-	10	6.5		No					1	0	1	1	3	5	8	11	17	24	28			9,887	*
79		35	38		-	9	4.8		No					1	0	0	1	2	4	7	10	16	26	33			8,297	*
78		34	38		-	10	3.4		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	6	9	16	27	36			6,805	*
77		33	38		-	11	2.5		No					1	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	16	25	43			5,421	*
76		33	39		-	10	2.0		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	13	27	46			4,507	*
75		33	40		-	9	1.5		No					0		0	0	1	2	2	6	11	27	51			3,532	*
74		32	40		-	10	0.7		No					0		0	0	0	1	2	4	10	24	57			2,727	*
73		32	41		-	9	0.6		No					0		0		0	1	2	4	8	23	62			2,080	*
72		31	41		-	10	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	3	8	22	65			1,575	*
71		30	41		-	11	0.3		No								0	0	0	1	1	6	20	71			1,191	*
70		30	42		-	10	0.1		No					0					0	0	2	5	20	73			915	*
69		29	42		-	11	Out		No										0	1	1	4	16	78			644	*
68		29	43		-	10	0.2		No								0			0	1	3	17	78			464	*
67		29	44		-	9	Out		No												2	2	11	86			329	*
66		28	44		-	10	Out		No												1	3	8	88			227	*
65		28	45		-	9	Out		No													1	11	87			157	*
64		27	45		-	10	Out		No												1	1	8	90			115	*
63		26	45		-	11	Out		No													1	5	93			76	*
62		25	45		-	12	Out		No														5	95			42	*
0	-61						Out		No															100			136	*

Total:							57.3	%	3.3	%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7			603,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Buffalo 4 (ot)	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs Calgary	+1.1+0.1*+0.1-0.9-0.8-0.9
Pittsburgh vs New Jersey	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-164						100
119		55	18		-	9	99	1
118		54	18		-	10	97	3
117		54	19		-	9	97	3
116		54	20		-	8	97	3
115		53	20		-	9	94	6
114		52	20		-	10	91	9	0
113		52	21		-	9	88	12	0
112		52	22		-	8	81	17	1
111		51	22		-	9	74	23	3	0	0
110		50	22		-	10	64	31	5	0
109		50	23		-	9	55	35	8	1	0
108		49	23		-	10	44	40	13	3	0	0
107		49	24		-	9	33	41	19	5	1	0
106		48	24		-	10	23	38	27	9	2	0		0
105		48	25		-	9	14	33	31	16	5	1	0	0
104		47	25		-	10	7	24	31	23	10	3	0	0	0
103		47	26		-	9	3	14	27	28	18	7	2	0	0	0
102		46	26		-	10	1	7	19	27	24	14	5	1	0	0	0
101		46	27		-	9	0	3	10	21	26	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
100		45	27		-	10	0	1	4	12	22	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
99		45	28		-	9	0	0	1	5	12	21	24	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
98		44	28		-	10		0	0	1	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
97		44	29		-	9			0	0	1	4	11	18	23	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
96		43	29		-	10			0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0	0				0
95		43	30		-	9				0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
94		42	30		-	10					0	0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	19	13	6	2	1	0	0
93		42	31		-	9						0	0	0	0	1	3	9	16	21	21	15	8	4	1	0	0	0
92		41	31		-	10								0	0	0	1	2	6	12	19	22	18	12	5	2	0	0	0
91		41	32		-	9									0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	21	14	7	3	1	0	0
90		40	32		-	10											0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
89		40	33		-	9												0	0	0	1	2	5	11	19	23	19	12	6	2	0	0	0	0
88		39	33		-	10												0		0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	8	3	1	0	0
87		38	33		-	11															0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
86		38	34		-	10															0	0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	18	9	3	1	0
85		37	34		-	11																		0	0	1	2	7	15	22	24	17	9	2	0	0
84		37	35		-	10																		0	0	0	1	2	7	16	24	25	17	7	2	0
83		36	35		-	11																				0	0	1	3	8	17	26	25	15	5	1
82		36	36		-	10																			0	0	0	0	1	3	10	20	29	24	11	2
81		36	37		-	9																						0	0	1	5	14	26	30	19	5
80		35	37		-	10																							0	0	2	8	20	31	28	10
79		35	38		-	9																							0	0	1	4	13	30	36	17
78		34	38		-	10																								0	0	1	8	24	40	26
77		33	38		-	11																									0	1	4	18	41	37
76		33	39		-	10																									0	0	2	12	38	47
75		33	40		-	9																										0	1	8	34	57
74		32	40		-	10																											0	4	26	69
73		32	41		-	9																											0	2	22	76
72		31	41		-	10																											0	1	18	81
71		30	41		-	11																												0	13	87
70		30	42		-	10																													9	91
69		29	42		-	11																												0	7	93
68		29	43		-	10																													5	95
67		29	44		-	9																													4	96
66		28	44		-	10																													2	98
65		28	45		-	9																													1	99
64		27	45		-	10																														100
63		26	45		-	11																													1	99
62		25	45		-	12																													2	98
0	-61																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3