Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 1st

Beat Detroit 4-3 (ot), playoff odds up 4.5 to 54.1%

2 points 1 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit 3 Buffalo 4 (ot)	+1.1		+0.5		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Phoenix vs NY Rangers	+0.2+0.3-0.1-0.0+0.2-0.3
Dallas vs Florida	+0.3-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

131	-164						In		Yes		100																156	*
130		60	13		-	8	In		Yes		50				50												4	*
129		60	14		-	7	In		Yes		100																7	*
128		60	15		-	6	In		Yes		88				13												8	*
126	-127						In		98.6	%	100																72	*
125		58	16		-	7	In		Yes		94				5	2											64	*
124		57	16		-	8	In		Yes		97				3												107	*
123		56	16		-	9	In		Yes		97				3												163	*
122		56	17		-	8	99.6	%	99.6		94	0			3	1	0					0					276	*
121		55	17		-	9	In		99.5		93				6	1	0										440	*
120		54	17		-	10	In		98.7		92	0			6	1	0										613	*
119		54	18		-	9	99.8		98.7		90	1			7	1	1	0		0							964	*
118		54	19		-	8	99.4		97.8		88	1			7	2	1	0	0	0	0						1,330	*
117		53	19		-	9	99.6		96.7		86	1			8	2	1	1	0	0	0		0				1,909	*
116		53	20		-	8	99.4		95.5		85	1			8	3	1	1	0	0	0		0				2,736	*
115		52	20		-	9	99.3		92.3		82	2			9	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0		3,604	*
114		52	21		-	8	98.9		89.5		79	4	0		10	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				4,919	*
113		51	21		-	9	98.7		85.1		75	4	0		11	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			6,625	*
112		50	21		-	10	97.8		79.0		72	6	0	0	11	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			8,645	*
111		50	22		-	9	97.5		72.5		67	7	0		12	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		11,289	*
110		49	22		-	10	96.8		63.7		63	10	1	0	12	6	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14,110	*
109		49	23		-	9	95.6		53.4		57	13	1	0	12	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17,795	*
108		48	23		-	10	94.4		42.3		51	15	1	0	12	7	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	21,976	*
107		48	24		-	9	93.5		31.2		45	18	2	0	12	8	5	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	26,807	*
106		47	24		-	10	91.5		20.9		38	20	3	0	12	8	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	31,688	*
105		47	25		-	9	90.3		12.9		32	22	4	0	12	9	6	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	37,800	*
104		46	25		-	10	87.8		6.7		26	23	6	1	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	43,699	*
103		46	26		-	9	85.5		3.0		20	23	8	1	12	9	7	6	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	50,342	*
102		45	26		-	10	83.0		1.0		15	22	10	1	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	56,404	*
101		45	27		-	9	80.1		0.3		11	21	11	2	11	9	8	7	6	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	63,208	*
100		44	27		-	10	76.7		0.1		8	19	13	3	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	67,928	*
99		44	28		-	9	73.9		0.0		5	16	14	4	10	9	8	8	6	5	4	4	3	2	1	0	73,920	*
98		43	28		-	10	70.3		0.0		3	13	15	5	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	78,358	*
97		43	29		-	9	66.1		No		2	10	14	6	8	9	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	82,371	*
96		42	29		-	10	62.6		No		1	7	14	8	8	8	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	84,448	*
95		42	30		-	9	58.4		No		1	5	12	9	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	1	85,829	*
94		41	30		-	10	54.3		No		0	4	11	10	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	3	2	85,581	*
93		41	31		-	9	50.3		No		0	2	9	10	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	85,061	*
92		40	31		-	10	46.1		No		0	1	7	11	5	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	3	83,520	*
91		40	32		-	9	42.0		No		0	1	5	11	4	6	7	8	8	9	8	8	8	7	6	4	79,853	*
90		39	32		-	10	38.0		No		0	0	4	11	4	5	6	8	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	4	75,819	*
89		39	33		-	9	34.5		No		0	0	3	10	3	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	70,921	*
88		38	33		-	10	30.9		No			0	2	10	3	4	6	7	7	8	9	9	10	10	9	7	64,502	*
87		38	34		-	9	27.2		No			0	1	9	2	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	10	11	10	8	58,967	*
86		37	34		-	10	23.5		No			0	1	8	2	3	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	12	9	53,297	*
85		37	35		-	9	20.4		No			0	1	7	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	10	11	12	13	11	47,454	*
84		36	35		-	10	17.8		No			0	0	6	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	10	11	13	14	13	40,997	*
83		36	36		-	9	15.4		No				0	5	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	11	13	15	15	35,130	*
82		35	36		-	10	12.8		No				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	14	16	18	29,653	*
81		35	37		-	9	10.8		No				0	3	1	1	2	3	4	6	7	9	11	14	18	20	24,793	*
80		34	37		-	10	9.1		No				0	3	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	14	18	22	20,304	*
79		34	38		-	9	7.6		No				0	2	0	1	2	2	3	5	6	9	10	15	20	25	16,710	*
78		33	38		-	10	6.2		No				0	2	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	15	20	28	13,526	*
77		33	39		-	9	5.3		No					2	0	1	1	2	2	4	5	7	10	14	21	32	10,380	*
76		32	39		-	10	4.2		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	6	9	14	22	34	8,396	*
75		32	40		-	9	3.5		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	14	22	38	6,276	*
74		31	40		-	10	2.8		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	5	8	13	22	42	4,702	*
73		31	41		-	9	1.7		No					1	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	13	22	45	3,514	*
72		30	41		-	10	1.6		No					1	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	7	11	21	50	2,626	*
71		29	41		-	11	1.2		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	3	4	6	11	22	51	1,880	*
70		29	42		-	10	0.7		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	3	3	5	10	22	55	1,378	*
69		28	42		-	11	0.8		No					0			0	1	1	1	2	2	5	8	22	58	951	*
68		28	43		-	10	0.6		No								0	0	1	1	1	2	4	8	21	61	632	*
67		28	44		-	9	0.2		No								0		1	0	1	3	3	7	17	68	492	*
66		27	44		-	10	Out		No										0	1	2	2	2	5	15	74	325	*
65		26	44		-	11	Out		No												1	1	4	6	15	72	207	*
64		26	45		-	10	Out		No										1			1	4	2	13	80	140	*
63		26	46		-	9	1.1		No							1							1	3	8	86	88	*
62		25	46		-	10	Out		No															4	9	87	68	*
61		25	47		-	9	Out		No															6	14	81	36	*
60		25	48		-	8	Out		No														4	7	18	71	28	*
59		23	47		-	11	Out		No														7		14	79	14	*
58		24	49		-	8	Out		No															17		83	6	*
57		23	49		-	9	Out		No												17					83	6	*
2	-55						Out		No																	100	153	*

Total:							54.1	%	5.0	%	8	8	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	1,809,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Buffalo 4 (ot)	-0.9

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Jose vs Vancouver	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

127	-164						100
126		58	15		-	8	98	2
123	-125						100
122		56	17		-	8	100	0
121		55	17		-	9	100	0
120		54	17		-	10	99	1
119		54	18		-	9	99	1
118		54	19		-	8	98	2
117		53	19		-	9	97	3
116		53	20		-	8	96	4	0
115		52	20		-	9	92	8	0
114		52	21		-	8	89	10	0	0
113		51	21		-	9	85	14	1	0
112		50	21		-	10	79	19	2	0
111		50	22		-	9	73	24	3	0
110		49	22		-	10	64	30	6	1	0
109		49	23		-	9	53	36	9	1	0
108		48	23		-	10	42	40	15	3	0	0
107		48	24		-	9	31	40	21	6	1	0
106		47	24		-	10	21	38	27	11	3	0	0
105		47	25		-	9	13	31	32	17	6	1	0	0	0
104		46	25		-	10	7	23	32	24	11	3	1	0	0
103		46	26		-	9	3	14	27	28	18	8	2	0	0	0
102		45	26		-	10	1	7	18	27	25	15	6	2	0	0	0
101		45	27		-	9	0	3	10	20	26	22	13	5	1	0	0	0	0
100		44	27		-	10	0	1	4	11	21	25	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
99		44	28		-	9	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0	0	0
98		43	28		-	10	0	0	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	12	6	2	1	0	0		0
97		43	29		-	9		0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
96		42	29		-	10			0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
95		42	30		-	9				0	0	0	1	2	7	14	20	22	18	10	5	1	0	0	0
94		41	30		-	10						0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
93		41	31		-	9							0	0	0	1	3	9	16	21	21	16	8	4	1	0	0	0	0
92		40	31		-	10								0	0	0	1	2	6	13	19	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
91		40	32		-	9									0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	20	14	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
90		39	32		-	10											0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
89		39	33		-	9												0	0	0	1	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
88		38	33		-	10													0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	0	0	0	0
87		38	34		-	9														0	0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0
86		37	34		-	10																0	0	0	1	3	8	15	22	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
85		37	35		-	9																0	0	0	0	1	3	8	15	23	24	16	8	2	0	0
84		36	35		-	10																		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	24	24	16	7	2	0
83		36	36		-	9																			0	0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	14	4	1
82		35	36		-	10																					0	0	1	4	11	22	28	22	10	2
81		35	37		-	9																				0		0	0	1	5	14	27	29	18	5
80		34	37		-	10																							0	0	2	8	22	32	27	9
79		34	38		-	9																							0	0	1	4	15	30	34	16
78		33	38		-	10																								0	0	2	9	25	40	25
77		33	39		-	9																								0	0	1	4	19	41	35
76		32	39		-	10																									0	0	2	13	38	46
75		32	40		-	9																										0	1	8	34	57
74		31	40		-	10																										0	1	5	29	65
73		31	41		-	9																										0	0	3	23	74
72		30	41		-	10																											0	2	17	81
71		29	41		-	11																											0	1	14	85
70		29	42		-	10																												0	11	89
69		28	42		-	11																												0	7	93
68		28	43		-	10																													4	96
67		28	44		-	9																													4	96
66		27	44		-	10																													4	96
65		26	44		-	11																													1	99
64		26	45		-	10																													1	99
2	-63																																			100

Total:							5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2