Toronto Marlies Playoff Chances 2013-2014a

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 53.3%

0 points 0 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Kilpatrick Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Lake Erie vs Abbotsford	+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.3+0.1
Oklahoma City vs Charlotte	+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Kilpatrick Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Grand Rapids	+4.3+3.8+4.0-1.0-1.0-5.3		+0.8+0.6+0.7-0.2-0.2-0.9		+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5
San Antonio vs Rockford	+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.3*+0.0
Oklahoma City vs Charlotte	+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.3+0.0
Lake Erie vs Abbotsford	+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Kilpatrick		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

112	-152						In		99.9	%	100															2,204	*
111		52	17		-	7	In		99.1		100	0		0												1,011	*
110		51	17		-	8	In		98.3		99	1		0												1,669	*
109		51	18		-	7	In		97.8		99	1		0												2,337	*
108		50	18		-	8	In		95.9		99	1		0												3,475	*
107		50	19		-	7	In		94.0		98	2		0												4,949	*
106		49	19		-	8	In		90.9		96	3	0	1												7,163	*
105		49	20		-	7	In		87.9		95	4	0	1												9,844	*
104		48	20		-	8	In		83.4		93	5	0	1												13,432	*
103		48	21		-	7	In		76.4		89	9	0	2												18,216	*
102		47	21		-	8	In		68.0		86	11	0	3	0											24,322	*
101		47	22		-	7	In		58.6		80	15	1	4	0											31,387	*
100		46	22		-	8	In		47.8		73	19	1	6	0											40,243	*
99		46	23		-	7	In		36.7		65	25	2	9	0											50,605	*
98		45	23		-	8	In		25.3		55	30	3	12	0	0										62,638	*
97		45	24		-	7	In		15.9		45	34	5	15	1	0	0									76,313	*
96		44	24		-	8	In		8.9		34	37	7	19	2	0										91,856	*
95		44	25		-	7	In		4.0		24	38	11	23	4	0	0	0								108,584	*
94		43	25		-	8	In		1.5		15	36	15	27	7	1	0	0								125,722	*
93		43	26		-	7	In		0.4		9	31	18	29	11	2	0	0								145,191	*
92		42	26		-	8	100.0	%	0.1		4	24	22	29	17	4	0	0	0							163,331	*
91		42	27		-	7	100.0		0.0		2	16	23	26	24	8	1	0	0							181,380	*
90		41	27		-	8	100.0		0.0		1	10	22	20	28	15	4	0	0	0						198,879	*
89		41	28		-	7	99.8		No		0	5	20	13	28	23	9	2	0	0	0					213,899	*
88		40	28		-	8	99.1		No		0	2	16	7	23	29	17	5	1	0	0	0				227,877	*
87		39	28		-	9	96.7		No		0	1	12	3	15	29	25	12	3	0	0	0				237,750	*
86		39	29		-	8	89.9		No		0	0	8	1	8	22	30	21	8	2	0	0	0			245,328	*
85		38	29		-	9	76.4		No			0	5	0	3	13	27	29	17	6	1	0	0			248,626	*
84		38	30		-	8	56.3		No			0	3	0	1	6	18	29	26	13	4	0	0	0		249,340	*
83		37	30		-	9	34.5		No			0	2	0	0	2	9	22	30	23	10	2	0	0		245,427	*
82		37	31		-	8	16.9		No			0	1	0	0	0	3	12	26	30	19	6	1	0	0	238,056	*
81		36	31		-	9	6.9		No				0	0	0	0	1	5	17	29	28	14	4	0	0	228,022	*
80		36	32		-	8	2.3		No				0	0	0	0	0	2	9	23	31	24	9	2	0	215,826	*
79		35	32		-	9	0.6		No				0		0	0	0	1	4	14	28	31	18	5	0	200,107	*
78		35	33		-	8	0.2		No				0			0	0	0	1	7	21	33	27	10	1	183,301	*
77		34	33		-	9	0.1		No				0			0	0	0	0	3	13	29	34	18	3	164,832	*
76		34	34		-	8	0.0		No				0				0	0	0	1	7	22	36	27	7	147,013	*
75		33	34		-	9	0.0		No									0	0	0	3	14	33	36	13	128,801	*
74		33	35		-	8	0.0		No				0					0	0	0	1	8	28	42	21	111,727	*
73		32	35		-	9	0.0		No									0	0	0	0	4	21	43	31	95,277	*
72		32	36		-	8	Out		No											0	0	2	14	42	41	79,474	*
71		31	36		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	9	38	51	65,936	*
70		31	37		-	8	Out		No											0	0	0	6	33	61	53,618	*
69		30	37		-	9	Out		No											0	0	0	3	27	70	43,050	*
68		30	38		-	8	Out		No													0	2	21	77	34,051	*
67		29	38		-	9	Out		No												0	0	1	16	83	26,744	*
66		29	39		-	8	Out		No													0	1	12	87	20,591	*
65		28	39		-	9	Out		No													0	0	9	91	15,437	*
64		28	40		-	8	Out		No														0	6	93	11,509	*
63		28	41		-	7	Out		No														0	4	96	8,465	*
62		27	41		-	8	Out		No														0	3	97	6,180	*
61		26	41		-	9	Out		No															2	98	4,385	*
60		26	42		-	8	Out		No															1	99	3,165	*
59		25	42		-	9	Out		No															1	99	2,113	*
58		25	43		-	8	Out		No															1	99	1,485	*
57		25	44		-	7	Out		No															0	100	1,004	*
56		24	44		-	8	Out		No															0	100	693	*
55		24	45		-	7	Out		No																100	418	*
54		23	45		-	8	Out		No															0	100	258	*
0	-53						Out		No																100	844	*

Total:							53.3	%	3.3	%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5,125,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lake Erie vs Abbotsford	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Rochester vs Grand Rapids	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto vs Grand Rapids	-0.9-0.8-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.1
Lake Erie vs Abbotsford	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
San Antonio vs Rockford	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

118	-152						100
117		55	14		-	7	98	2
116		55	15		-	6	100
115		54	15		-	7	99	1
114		53	15		-	8	100
113		53	16		-	7	100	0
112		53	17		-	6	100
111		52	17		-	7	99	0	0				0
110		51	17		-	8	98	1	1				0
109		51	18		-	7	98	1	1				0
108		50	18		-	8	96	3	1				0
107		50	19		-	7	94	4	2				0
106		49	19		-	8	91	5	3		0		1
105		49	20		-	7	88	7	4		0		1
104		48	20		-	8	83	10	5		0		1
103		48	21		-	7	76	13	8	0	0		2
102		47	21		-	8	68	18	11	0	0		3	0	0
101		47	22		-	7	59	21	15	0	1		4	0	0
100		46	22		-	8	48	25	19	1	1		6	0	0
99		46	23		-	7	37	28	23	2	2	0	8	0	0
98		45	23		-	8	25	30	26	3	3	0	11	0	0		0
97		45	24		-	7	16	29	28	6	5	0	15	1	1	0	0		0
96		44	24		-	8	9	25	27	10	7	0	18	2	2	0	0
95		44	25		-	7	4	20	24	14	10	1	20	4	4	0	0		0		0
94		43	25		-	8	2	14	18	18	13	1	20	6	7	0	1	0	0		0
93		43	26		-	7	0	8	11	20	15	3	19	10	11	1	2	0	0		0
92		42	26		-	8	0	4	6	18	16	6	15	14	15	2	4	0	0		0		0
91		42	27		-	7	0	2	2	14	14	9	9	16	19	5	8	0	1	0	0	0	0
90		41	27		-	8	0	1	1	9	11	12	5	15	18	10	14	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
89		41	28		-	7		0	0	5	7	13	2	12	13	15	18	5	8	0	2	0	0	0	0
88		40	28		-	8		0	0	2	4	12	0	7	7	17	18	11	15	2	5	0	1	0	0	0
87		39	28		-	9		0	0	1	2	10	0	3	2	13	12	17	19	6	11	1	3	0	0	0	0
86		39	29		-	8		0		0	1	7	0	1	0	7	5	17	16	14	17	4	8	2	0	0	0
85		38	29		-	9				0	0	5	0	0	0	3	1	12	8	18	18	11	15	7	2	0	0	0	0
84		38	30		-	8				0	0	3		0	0	1	0	5	3	15	12	17	19	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
83		37	30		-	9				0	0	2		0	0	0	0	2	0	8	4	18	15	20	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
82		37	31		-	8				0	0	1		0		0		0	0	3	1	11	7	17	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
81		36	31		-	9						0		0		0		0	0	1	0	5	2	8	16	22	21	14	7	3	1	0	0
80		36	32		-	8						0		0		0		0	0	0	0	2	0	2	7	15	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
79		35	32		-	9						0				0		0		0	0	1	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
78		35	33		-	8						0						0		0		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
77		34	33		-	9						0						0		0		0	0	0	0	0	2	5	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0
76		34	34		-	8						0								0		0		0	0	0	0	2	5	13	22	26	20	9	3	0
75		33	34		-	9																0			0	0	0	0	2	6	15	24	26	18	7	1
74		33	35		-	8						0										0				0	0	0	1	2	8	18	28	26	14	3
73		32	35		-	9																0						0	0	1	3	11	24	31	23	7
72		32	36		-	8																						0	0	0	1	6	17	31	31	13
71		31	36		-	9																						0	0	0	0	3	11	27	38	22
70		31	37		-	8																								0	0	1	6	21	40	32
69		30	37		-	9																									0	0	3	15	39	43
68		30	38		-	8																									0	0	1	10	35	54
67		29	38		-	9																										0	1	6	30	64
66		29	39		-	8																										0	0	3	24	72
65		28	39		-	9																											0	2	18	80
64		28	40		-	8																											0	1	14	85
63		28	41		-	7																											0	0	11	89
62		27	41		-	8																												0	7	92
61		26	41		-	9																												0	5	95
60		26	42		-	8																													3	97
59		25	42		-	9																												0	3	97
58		25	43		-	8																													1	99
57		25	44		-	7																													1	99
56		24	44		-	8																													1	99
55		24	45		-	7																													1	99
54		23	45		-	8																													0	100
0	-53																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3