Hershey Bears Playoff Chances 2013-2014a 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 53.3%

0 points 0 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Kilpatrick Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Hershey vs Adirondack	+4.4+3.7+3.7-0.8-0.5-5.2		+0.8+0.7+0.7-0.3-0.3-0.9		+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.0-0.5
Bridgeport vs W-B/Scranton					+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Hershey finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Kilpatrick		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

112	-152						In		99.7	%	100															705	*
111		52	17		-	7	In		98.2		99	0		0												342	*
110		51	17		-	8	In		98.7		100			0												534	*
109		51	18		-	7	In		97.4		99	1		0												780	*
108		50	18		-	8	In		95.4		98	1		0												1,151	*
107		50	19		-	7	In		95.4		98	1		0												1,652	*
106		50	20		-	6	In		90.6		97	3		0												2,354	*
105		49	20		-	7	In		86.9		95	4	0	1												3,316	*
104		48	20		-	8	In		83.3		93	6	0	1												4,488	*
103		48	21		-	7	In		76.0		90	8	0	2												5,995	*
102		47	21		-	8	In		68.0		86	11	0	3	0											7,984	*
101		47	22		-	7	In		58.3		80	15	0	4	0											10,447	*
100		46	22		-	8	In		48.3		74	19	1	6	0											13,491	*
99		46	23		-	7	In		36.1		65	25	2	9	0											16,775	*
98		45	23		-	8	In		26.0		56	29	3	12	0	0										20,593	*
97		45	24		-	7	In		16.3		45	35	5	14	1	0										25,429	*
96		44	24		-	8	In		8.9		34	37	8	19	2	0										30,945	*
95		44	25		-	7	In		4.0		24	38	11	23	4	0	0									36,073	*
94		43	25		-	8	In		1.6		15	36	15	27	7	1	0									41,931	*
93		43	26		-	7	In		0.4		9	31	19	29	11	2	0	0								48,188	*
92		42	26		-	8	100.0	%	0.1		4	24	22	29	17	4	0	0	0							54,573	*
91		42	27		-	7	100.0		0.0		2	17	23	26	23	8	1	0	0							60,438	*
90		41	27		-	8	100.0		No		1	10	22	20	28	15	3	0	0	0						66,067	*
89		41	28		-	7	99.8		No		0	5	20	13	29	22	8	2	0	0						71,217	*
88		40	28		-	8	99.2		No		0	2	16	7	24	29	17	5	1	0	0					75,951	*
87		40	29		-	7	96.9		No		0	1	12	3	16	29	25	12	3	0	0					79,441	*
86		39	29		-	8	90.1		No			0	8	1	8	22	30	21	8	2	0	0				81,473	*
85		38	29		-	9	76.8		No			0	5	0	3	13	27	29	17	5	1	0	0			82,883	*
84		38	30		-	8	56.3		No			0	3	0	1	6	18	29	26	13	4	1	0	0		83,288	*
83		37	30		-	9	34.9		No			0	2	0	0	2	9	22	30	23	9	2	0	0		82,162	*
82		37	31		-	8	17.1		No			0	1	0	0	0	3	13	26	30	19	7	1	0	0	79,433	*
81		36	31		-	9	7.0		No				0		0	0	1	6	17	29	28	14	4	0	0	76,047	*
80		36	32		-	8	2.3		No				0		0	0	0	2	9	23	32	23	9	2	0	71,908	*
79		35	32		-	9	0.6		No				0			0	0	0	4	14	28	31	18	5	0	66,893	*
78		35	33		-	8	0.2		No				0		0		0	0	1	7	20	33	27	10	1	61,113	*
77		34	33		-	9	0.0		No				0			0	0	0	0	3	12	29	34	18	3	55,380	*
76		34	34		-	8	0.0		No				0					0	0	1	6	22	36	27	8	48,929	*
75		33	34		-	9	0.0		No									0	0	0	3	14	33	36	14	42,980	*
74		33	35		-	8	Out		No										0	0	1	8	28	41	22	37,155	*
73		32	35		-	9	Out		No										0	0	1	4	21	44	31	31,584	*
72		32	36		-	8	Out		No										0	0	0	2	14	42	41	26,660	*
71		31	36		-	9	Out		No												0	1	9	38	51	21,827	*
70		31	37		-	8	Out		No												0	0	6	32	61	18,048	*
69		31	38		-	7	Out		No												0	0	3	27	70	14,428	*
68		30	38		-	8	Out		No													0	2	22	76	11,154	*
67		29	38		-	9	Out		No												0		1	16	83	8,751	*
66		29	39		-	8	Out		No														0	12	88	6,673	*
65		29	40		-	7	Out		No														0	9	91	5,239	*
64		28	40		-	8	Out		No														0	6	93	3,863	*
63		28	41		-	7	Out		No															4	96	2,814	*
62		27	41		-	8	Out		No														0	3	97	2,129	*
61		27	42		-	7	Out		No															1	99	1,493	*
60		26	42		-	8	Out		No															1	99	1,009	*
59		25	42		-	9	Out		No															1	99	739	*
58		25	43		-	8	Out		No															1	99	477	*
57		25	44		-	7	Out		No															1	99	346	*
56		24	44		-	8	Out		No															0	100	218	*
0	-55						Out		No																100	504	*

Total:							53.3	%	3.3	%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	1,708,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hershey vs Adirondack	-0.9-0.8-0.8+0.1+0.1+1.1
Bridgeport vs W-B/Scranton	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Hartford vs Norfolk	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Binghamton vs Syracuse	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*-0.0
St. John's vs Providence	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

117	-152						100
116		55	15		-	6	97	3
113	-115						100
112		52	16		-	8	99	1
111		52	17		-	7	98	1	0				0
110		51	17		-	8	99	1					0
109		51	18		-	7	97	2	1				0
108		50	18		-	8	95	3	1				0
107		50	19		-	7	95	3	1				0
106		50	20		-	6	91	6	3				0
105		49	20		-	7	87	8	4		0		1
104		48	20		-	8	83	10	6	0	0		1
103		48	21		-	7	76	14	8	0	0		2	0
102		47	21		-	8	68	18	11	0	0		3	0	0
101		47	22		-	7	58	22	15	0	0		4	0	0
100		46	22		-	8	48	25	18	1	1		6	0	0
99		46	23		-	7	36	29	23	2	2		8	0	0
98		45	23		-	8	26	30	26	3	3	0	11	0	0		0
97		45	24		-	7	16	29	29	6	5	0	13	1	1	0	0
96		44	24		-	8	9	25	27	10	7	0	17	2	2	0	0
95		44	25		-	7	4	20	24	14	10	1	19	4	4	0	0		0
94		43	25		-	8	2	14	18	18	13	1	21	6	6	0	1		0
93		43	26		-	7	0	8	11	20	16	3	18	10	11	1	2	0	0		0
92		42	26		-	8	0	4	6	18	16	6	15	14	15	2	4	0	0		0		0
91		42	27		-	7	0	2	2	14	14	9	10	16	18	5	8	0	1	0	0		0
90		41	27		-	8		1	1	9	11	12	5	16	18	10	13	1	3	0	0		0	0
89		41	28		-	7		0	0	5	7	13	2	12	13	16	18	4	8	0	2	0	0	0
88		40	28		-	8		0	0	2	4	12	0	7	6	17	18	11	15	2	5	0	1	0	0
87		40	29		-	7		0	0	1	2	10	0	3	2	13	12	17	19	6	11	1	3	0	0		0
86		39	29		-	8				0	1	7	0	1	0	7	5	17	16	14	17	4	8	2	0	0	0
85		38	29		-	9				0	0	5	0	0	0	3	1	12	9	19	18	11	15	6	2	0	0	0	0
84		38	30		-	8				0	0	3		0	0	1	0	5	3	15	12	18	19	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
83		37	30		-	9				0	0	2		0		0	0	2	0	8	5	18	15	20	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
82		37	31		-	8				0	0	1		0		0	0	0	0	3	1	12	7	17	21	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
81		36	31		-	9					0	0				0		0	0	1	0	5	2	8	16	22	20	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
80		36	32		-	8						0				0		0		0	0	2	0	2	7	15	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
79		35	32		-	9						0						0		0		0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
78		35	33		-	8						0				0				0		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
77		34	33		-	9						0						0		0		0	0	0	0	0	2	5	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0
76		34	34		-	8						0										0		0	0	0	0	2	5	13	22	25	20	9	2	0
75		33	34		-	9																0				0	0	0	2	6	15	24	27	18	7	1
74		33	35		-	8																					0	0	1	2	8	18	28	26	14	3
73		32	35		-	9																						0	0	1	4	11	24	31	23	7
72		32	36		-	8																						0	0	0	1	6	17	31	31	13
71		31	36		-	9																							0	0	0	2	11	26	38	22
70		31	37		-	8																								0	0	1	6	21	41	31
69		31	38		-	7																									0	0	3	15	39	42
68		30	38		-	8																									0	0	2	10	35	53
67		29	38		-	9																										0	1	6	29	64
66		29	39		-	8																											0	3	23	73
65		29	40		-	7																											0	2	18	80
64		28	40		-	8																											0	1	14	85
63		28	41		-	7																												0	10	90
62		27	41		-	8																												0	8	91
61		27	42		-	7																												0	5	95
60		26	42		-	8																													4	96
59		25	42		-	9																													3	97
58		25	43		-	8																													3	97
57		25	44		-	7																												0	1	98
56		24	44		-	8																													1	99
54	-55																																			100
53		22	45		-	9																													2	98
0	-52																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3