Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.6%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Titans vs Vikings-5.8*+1.2+5.9
-0.7*+0.3+0.7
Colts vs Packers+1.0*-0.8-1.0
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bears vs Jaguars-0.9*+1.3+0.9
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Lions vs Dolphins-0.9*-1.4+0.9
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Texans vs Cardinals+0.3*+1.3-0.3
Ravens vs Redskins+0.3*-3.3-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.3*+0.6+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.2*-0.3-0.2
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs-0.2*+2.4+0.2
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Jets vs Falcons+0.2*+1.3-0.2
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Falcons vs Vikings-6.6*-3.1+6.6
-0.8*-0.3+0.8
Chiefs vs Packers+1.0*-3.4-1.0
+0.1*-0.4-0.1
Redskins vs Bears+0.7*+1.4-0.7
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Rams vs Lions+0.7*-2.4-0.7
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.3*+1.0+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.3*-1.0+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Ravens vs Saints+0.2*-1.2-0.2
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Chargers vs Giants+0.2*-2.0-0.2
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.2*-1.6+0.2
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.2*-1.0+0.2
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.2*+1.7-0.2
+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vikings finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100264*
2525-6-0In1000506
24.524-6-1In10014
2424-7-0In99101,684
23.523-7-1In10034
2323-8-0In95415,131
22.522-8-1In9532108
2222-9-0In89902013,237*
21.521-9-1In811603249
2121-10-0100.0%72202060029,318*
20.520-10-1In572830110477
2020-11-0100.04633701310055,951
19-10-2In333317176
19.519-11-1In3137121172885
1919-12-099.4193418322510093,408*
18.518-12-198.69272442410101,433
1818-13-093.7418249231651000136,626
17-12-2In116711119
17.517-13-187.01923131822102101,893
1717-14-069.504151613221893100175,849
16-13-290.020302010101010
16.516-14-150.11817716231772002,403
1616-15-031.100414310192216831000198,443
15-14-238.58815831158813
15.515-15-114.919041221231782102,579
1515-16-08.700070151321221793100198,721
14-15-2Out18993618911
14.514-16-13.904015142226188202,370
1414-17-02.3020002614222418920174,683
13-16-26.3666134419616
13.513-17-10.8102615252718611,916
1313-18-00.50000027172727154136,371*
12.512-18-10.20002820332881,414
1212-19-00.1000141329351993,155
11-18-2Out38233813
11.511-19-1Out15204035880
1111-20-00.00000313384655,984
10-19-2Out222222339
10.510-20-1Out173161460
1010-21-0Out003247229,371*
9.59-21-1Out1585260
99-22-0Out01118813,257
8.58-22-1Out89286
88-23-0Out03975,123*
7.57-23-1Out49625
77-24-0Out1991,755*
6.56-24-1Out1007
66-25-0Out0100443
0-5.5Out100244*
Total:37.6%66666666666666661,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Titans vs Vikings+1.5*-0.4-1.5
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.0-0.3+0.0
Colts vs Packers-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Bears vs Jaguars+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Lions vs Dolphins+0.1*+0.5-0.1
Texans vs Cardinals-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Ravens vs Redskins-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Falcons vs Vikings+1.5*+0.5-1.5
Chiefs vs Packers-0.1+0.8+0.1
Rams vs Lions-0.1*+0.5+0.1
Redskins vs Bears-0.1+0.0+0.1
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Ravens vs Saints-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.0*+0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-010000
24.524-6-1937
2424-7-098110
23.523-7-1100
2323-8-0914401
22.522-8-189632
2222-9-0781190020
21.521-9-167141603
2121-10-05022201206000
20.520-10-13027271301100
2020-11-01827285700131100
19-10-233331717
19.519-11-172528911011612
1919-12-021619151623018450100
18.518-12-109101820541779010
1818-13-00431514991121214251000
17-12-21111561111
17.517-13-110991412251417510310
1717-14-00043121152111111151041000
16-13-220201020101010
16.516-14-11189807313141912510
1616-15-000045903110512161611621000
15-14-288158883115
15.515-15-112804039182217104100
1515-16-0000160100261116181612631000
14-15-2271827918
14.514-16-100400141019222013410
1414-17-0002000001261217191712721000
13-16-26613619132513
13.513-17-110141221262010410
1313-18-0000000149162121168310
12.512-18-10015112128211031
1212-19-00001411212722112
11-18-283815318
11.511-19-11292433247
1111-20-00001413293518
10-19-2222256
10.510-20-104204233
1010-21-00002123650
9.59-21-152470
99-22-00022077
8.58-22-11981
88-23-000793
7.57-23-1496
77-24-0298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
0-5.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333