SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Tennessee Titans Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Titans vs Vikings	+5.9*-1.0-6.0		+0.7*+0.0-0.7
Colts vs Packers	-1.0*-1.4+1.0		-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Texans vs Cardinals	-1.0*-3.2+1.0		-0.1*-0.4+0.1
Bears vs Jaguars	+1.0*+2.0-1.0		+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Lions vs Dolphins	+0.3*-0.3-0.3
Panthers vs Patriots	+0.2*+2.9-0.2		+0.0*+0.5-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins	-0.2*+2.4+0.2		-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers	-0.2*-0.3+0.2		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons	-0.2*-2.2+0.2		-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Giants vs Chiefs	+0.2*-1.7-0.2		+0.0*-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Seahawks vs Titans	-5.9*-3.2+5.9		-0.7*-0.3+0.7
Cowboys vs Jaguars	+1.0*-0.0-1.0		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers	-1.0*-2.1+1.0		-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Steelers vs Colts	+0.7*-0.5-0.7		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Cardinals vs Bills	+0.3*-2.4-0.3
Chargers vs Giants	-0.3*-2.4+0.3		-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Ravens vs Saints	-0.3*+0.4+0.3
Chiefs vs Packers	-0.2*-1.7+0.2		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Eagles vs Jets	+0.2*-0.9-0.2		+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Titans finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

26.5	-31						In		100																137	*
26		26	-	5	-	0	In		98	2															103
25	.5	25	-	5	-	1	In		100																4
25		25	-	6	-	0	In		99	1															533
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	In		100																8
24		24	-	7	-	0	In		99	1			0												1,714
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	In		100																27
23		23	-	8	-	0	In		96	3	0		1												5,314
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	In		92	5			3												95
22		22	-	9	-	0	In		88	9	0		2	0											13,304	*
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	In		83	13	0		4												225
21		21	-	10	-	0	In		72	20	2	0	6	0											29,118	*
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	In		64	24	3		8	0											466
20		20	-	11	-	0	100.0	%	46	33	7	0	13	1	0										56,302	*
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	In		32	35	13	1	17	2											884
19		19	-	12	-	0	99.4		18	34	18	3	21	5	1	0									92,933
		18	-	11	-	2	In		14	50	21		14												14
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	98.6		10	28	23	5	23	10	1										1,406
18		18	-	13	-	0	93.6		4	18	24	9	23	16	5	1	0	0	0						136,321
		17	-	12	-	2	In		10	40	10	10	10	20											10
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1	86.5		1	10	22	13	19	21	10	3	0	0							1,960
17		17	-	14	-	0	69.7		0	4	15	16	13	22	18	9	3	1	0	0	0				175,703
		16	-	13	-	2	92.9			14	21	29		29	7										14
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1	49.1		0	1	8	16	6	19	23	18	7	2	0	0					2,434
16		16	-	15	-	0	30.9		0	0	4	14	3	10	19	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0		197,876
		15	-	14	-	2	21.4				7	7	7		14	21	21	21							14
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1	16.2				2	10	1	3	12	21	22	16	9	2	1				2,466
15		15	-	16	-	0	8.8			0	0	7	0	1	5	13	20	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	198,636
		14	-	15	-	2	Out								13	13	13	27	20	13					15
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1	4.7				0	4	0	0	1	5	12	22	24	19	9	3	1		2,422
14		14	-	17	-	0	2.3				0	2	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	2	0	175,648
		13	-	16	-	2	Out									8		8	31	23	15	8	8		13
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1	1.1					1				0	2	6	13	25	27	19	6	1	1,880
13		13	-	18	-	0	0.5					0			0	0	0	2	7	17	27	27	15	4	136,293
		12	-	17	-	2	Out													23	8	46	8	15	13
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1	Out										0	0	2	7	21	33	28	9	1,462
12		12	-	19	-	0	0.1					0					0	0	1	4	13	29	35	19	93,343	*
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1	Out												0	1	7	21	41	30	910	*
11		11	-	20	-	0	0.0					0							0	0	3	14	38	45	55,788	*
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1	Out															6	32	62	498
10		10	-	21	-	0	0.0					0								0	0	3	25	72	29,426
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1	Out															0	18	81	208
9		9	-	22	-	0	Out														0	1	11	88	13,289
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1	Out																10	90	93
8		8	-	23	-	0	Out														0		5	95	5,194
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1	Out																	100	46
7		7	-	24	-	0	Out																1	99	1,745
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1	Out																	100	11
6		6	-	25	-	0	Out																0	100	514
0	-5.5						Out																	100	272	*

Total:							37.5	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	1,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Titans vs Vikings	-1.5*-0.0+1.5
Colts vs Packers	+0.1+0.5-0.1
Bears vs Jaguars	-0.1*-0.6+0.1
Texans vs Cardinals	+0.1*+0.8-0.1
Giants vs Chiefs	-0.0+0.2+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots	-0.0*-0.9+0.0
Ravens vs Redskins	+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons	+0.0*+0.5-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seahawks vs Titans	+1.5*+0.6-1.5
Texans vs Buccaneers	+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Cowboys vs Jaguars	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Steelers vs Colts	-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Cardinals vs Bills	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chargers vs Giants	+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers	+0.0*+0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

26.5	-31						100
26		26	-	5	-	0	98		2
25	.5	25	-	5	-	1	100
25		25	-	6	-	0	98	1	1
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	100
24		24	-	7	-	0	98	1	1						0
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	100
23		23	-	8	-	0	92	4	3		0				1
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	87	4	5						3
22		22	-	9	-	0	77	12	9	0	0				2		0
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	67	16	13		0				4
21		21	-	10	-	0	49	22	20	1	2		0		6	0	0
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	35	29	22	2	3				8		0
20		20	-	11	-	0	18	28	28	5	7	0	0		12	1	1		0
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	8	25	26	8	12	0	1		15	1	2
19		19	-	12	-	0	2	16	19	15	16	2	3	0	18	4	5	0	1	0
		18	-	11	-	2		14	36	14	14	7			14
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	0	9	9	20	19	4	5	0	16	7	9	0	1
18		18	-	13	-	0	0	4	3	15	14	9	9	1	12	12	14	2	5	1	0	0	0
		17	-	12	-	2		10	10	30	10		10		10		20
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1		1	0	10	8	14	12	1	6	13	16	5	10	3	0	0
17		17	-	14	-	0		0	0	4	3	12	11	5	2	11	11	11	15	10	4	1	0	0	0
		16	-	13	-	2				14		21	14	14			7	21	7
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1		0		1	0	7	8	7	0	6	3	16	14	19	12	5	1	0	0
16		16	-	15	-	0		0	0	0	0	4	5	9	0	3	1	10	5	12	16	16	11	6	2	1	0	0
		15	-	14	-	2						7		7		7			7	7	21	21	14	7
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1						2	2	8		1		3	0	3	9	18	22	18	9	4	1	0
15		15	-	16	-	0				0		0	1	6		0	0	1	0	0	2	6	11	16	18	16	12	6	3	1	0	0	0	0
		14	-	15	-	2																	20	13	27	7	13	13		7
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1						0	0	4		0		0			0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	12	6	2	0	0
14		14	-	17	-	0						0	0	2		0		0				0	0	1	2	6	12	17	19	17	12	7	2	1	0	0
		13	-	16	-	2																				15	15	15	15	23	15
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1								1												0	1	4	12	21	24	20	11	4	1	0
13		13	-	18	-	0							0	0										0	0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	21	16	8	3	1	0
		12	-	17	-	2																								8	8		31	38	15
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1																					0	0	0	0	4	11	22	27	22	10	3	0
12		12	-	19	-	0								0													0	0	0	0	1	4	11	21	27	22	11	2
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1																									0	0	3	11	26	31	23	7
11		11	-	20	-	0								0																	0	0	1	4	14	29	34	18
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1																													5	18	45	33
10		10	-	21	-	0								0																			0	0	2	12	37	50
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1																													0	4	30	65
9		9	-	22	-	0																												0	0	2	21	77
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1																															19	81
8		8	-	23	-	0																													0	0	8	92
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1																															2	98
7		7	-	24	-	0																															3	97
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1																																100
6		6	-	25	-	0																															1	99
0	-5.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3