SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Houston Texans Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Texans vs Cardinals	+5.9*+1.9-5.9		+0.7+0.3-0.7
Bears vs Jaguars	+1.0*-1.8-1.0		+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Titans vs Vikings	-0.9*-0.3+0.9		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Colts vs Packers	-0.9*+2.9+0.9		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Jets vs Falcons	-0.3*+0.3+0.3		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers	-0.3*-1.2+0.3		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	+0.3*-3.8-0.3		+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs	+0.3*+2.0-0.3		+0.0*+0.4-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots	+0.3*+2.2-0.3		+0.0*+0.4-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins	-0.2*-1.8+0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Texans vs Buccaneers	+5.9*-3.4-5.9		+0.7*-0.2-0.7
Cowboys vs Jaguars	+1.0*+5.4-1.0		+0.1*+0.5-0.1
Seahawks vs Titans	+1.0*-0.3-1.0		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Steelers vs Colts	+0.7*+1.0-0.7		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Chargers vs Giants	-0.3*+0.8+0.3		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills	+0.3*-1.8-0.3		+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Ravens vs Saints	-0.2*+1.4+0.2		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Eagles vs Jets	+0.2*+0.3-0.2		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers	-0.2*+3.2+0.2		-0.0*+0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Texans finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

25.5	-31						In		100																246	*
25		25	-	6	-	0	In		100	0															477
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	In		100																11
24		24	-	7	-	0	In		99	1			0												1,766
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	In		100																29
23		23	-	8	-	0	In		96	3			1												5,102
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	In		95	3			2												93
22		22	-	9	-	0	In		89	9	0		2	0											13,206	*
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	In		85	11			4												217
21		21	-	10	-	0	In		71	21	2	0	6	0											29,312	*
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	In		63	24	3		10	0											489
20		20	-	11	-	0	100.0	%	46	33	7	0	13	1	0	0									56,279
		19	-	10	-	2	In		43	14			43												7
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	99.8		30	38	11	1	17	2	0										945
19		19	-	12	-	0	99.3		19	33	18	3	22	5	1	0	0								92,818
		18	-	11	-	2	In			50	17	17	17												6
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	98.0		9	27	23	5	25	9	2	0	0								1,485
18		18	-	13	-	0	93.6		4	18	24	9	23	16	5	1	0	0							135,542
		17	-	12	-	2	84.6			23	15	23	8	15	15										13
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1	86.3		1	10	21	14	19	21	11	3	0								1,916
17		17	-	14	-	0	69.5		0	4	15	16	13	22	18	9	3	1	0	0	0				175,461
		16	-	13	-	2	75.0			13		25	13	25	13		13								8
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1	50.3			1	9	17	6	18	23	16	7	2	0	0					2,335
16		16	-	15	-	0	31.2		0	0	4	14	3	10	19	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0		199,480
		15	-	14	-	2	30.8					23		8	15	38	8		8						13
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1	16.0			0	1	10	1	5	12	21	24	16	8	3	1	0			2,556
15		15	-	16	-	0	8.7			0	0	7	0	1	5	13	20	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	198,205
		14	-	15	-	2	5.3					5			5	26	16	16	16	16					19
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1	4.5				0	4		0	1	5	12	22	24	19	8	3	0		2,487
14		14	-	17	-	0	2.3				0	2	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	2	0	175,061
		13	-	16	-	2	13.3					13						20	20	27	20				15
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1	1.3					1			0	0	1	4	14	25	28	19	7	1	2,020
13		13	-	18	-	0	0.5					0			0	0	0	2	7	17	27	27	15	4	136,284
		12	-	17	-	2	Out											13	13	25		38	13		8
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1	0.1					0						0	2	8	21	34	25	9	1,387
12		12	-	19	-	0	0.1					0					0	0	1	4	13	29	35	19	93,368
		11	-	18	-	2	Out														33	17	17	33	6
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1	0.1					0							0	1	5	20	43	31	946
11		11	-	20	-	0	0.0					0							0	0	3	13	38	46	56,172	*
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1	Out														1	7	32	60	502
10		10	-	21	-	0	Out												0		0	4	25	71	29,242	*
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1	Out															0	16	84	239
9		9	-	22	-	0	Out															0	12	88	13,381	*
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1	Out																5	95	81
8		8	-	23	-	0	Out															0	4	96	5,297
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1	Out																6	94	33
7		7	-	24	-	0	Out																1	99	1,756	*
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1	Out																	100	6
6		6	-	25	-	0	Out																0	100	519	*
0	-5.5						Out																	100	258	*

Total:							37.5	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	1,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Texans vs Cardinals	-1.5-0.7+1.5
Bears vs Jaguars	-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Colts vs Packers	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Titans vs Vikings	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Jets vs Falcons	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs	-0.0*-0.8+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots	-0.0*-0.7+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Texans vs Buccaneers	-1.5+0.3+1.5
Cardinals vs Bills	-0.0+0.6+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Cowboys vs Jaguars	-0.1*-1.0+0.1
Steelers vs Colts	-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Chargers vs Giants	+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

25.5	-31						100
25		25	-	6	-	0	99	0	0
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	100
24		24	-	7	-	0	98	1	1						0
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	100
23		23	-	8	-	0	92	4	3						1
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	87	8	3						2
22		22	-	9	-	0	78	11	9	0	0				2		0
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	72	12	11						4
21		21	-	10	-	0	49	22	20	0	2	0	0		6	0	0
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	35	28	22	2	3				10	0	0
20		20	-	11	-	0	18	27	28	5	7	0	0		12	1	1	0	0	0
		19	-	10	-	2	14	29	14						43
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	7	23	29	9	11	0	1		16	1	2		0
19		19	-	12	-	0	2	16	18	15	16	2	3	0	18	4	5	0	1	0	0
		18	-	11	-	2				50	17		17		17
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	0	9	9	19	18	5	5	0	17	8	9	0	2	0	0
18		18	-	13	-	0	0	4	3	15	14	9	9	1	12	12	14	2	5	1	0	0
		17	-	12	-	2			8	15	8	8	15	8		8	15		15
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1		1	0	9	8	13	12	2	6	13	17	4	10	3	0
17		17	-	14	-	0		0	0	4	3	12	11	5	2	11	11	11	15	10	4	1	0	0	0
		16	-	13	-	2				13			25			13	13	13	13		13
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1				1	1	8	8	9	0	6	3	14	14	18	12	4	1	0
16		16	-	15	-	0		0		0	0	4	5	9	0	3	1	10	6	12	16	15	11	6	2	1	0	0
		15	-	14	-	2							8	15				8	8	15	23	15	8
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1				0		1	2	8		1		5	0	3	9	18	22	19	9	3	1	0
15		15	-	16	-	0				0		0	1	6		0	0	1	0	0	2	6	11	16	18	16	12	6	3	1	0	0	0
		14	-	15	-	2								5								11	5	26	26	21	5
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1						0	0	4				0				0	1	4	10	19	23	19	12	5	2	0
14		14	-	17	-	0						0	0	2		0		0			0	0	0	1	2	6	12	17	19	17	12	6	3	1	0	0	0
		13	-	16	-	2								13													7	27	40		7	7
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1								1											0	0	2	5	11	21	24	19	13	3	1		0
13		13	-	18	-	0							0	0											0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	21	16	8	3	1	0
		12	-	17	-	2																						25		25	25		25
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1								0															0	1	5	11	22	29	19	9	3	0
12		12	-	19	-	0								0														0	0	0	1	4	11	21	27	22	11	2
		11	-	18	-	2																											33	17		50
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1								0																		1	3	11	21	33	24	8
11		11	-	20	-	0								0																		0	1	4	14	29	35	18
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1																											0	1	4	20	41	33
10		10	-	21	-	0																											0	0	2	12	37	49
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1																														5	29	67
9		9	-	22	-	0																												0	0	2	21	77
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1																														1	14	85
8		8	-	23	-	0																														0	8	92
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1																															9	91
7		7	-	24	-	0																															2	98
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1																																100
6		6	-	25	-	0																															1	99
0	-5.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3