Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ravens vs Redskins+5.9*+0.7-5.9
+0.7*+0.0-0.7
Browns vs Raiders-0.7*-1.0+0.7
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Broncos vs Bengals+0.7*-0.9-0.7
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Steelers+0.7*+0.6-0.7
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots+0.3*+1.4-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.3*+3.2+0.3
-0.0+0.4+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.3*+2.0-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.3*-3.8-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Colts vs Packers-0.3*-0.7+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.3*-2.6-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.2*+4.7+0.2
-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.2*+0.7+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.2*+2.0+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ravens vs Saints+5.9*-0.7-5.9
+0.7*+0.0-0.7
Browns vs Broncos-0.7*+0.9+0.7
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Steelers vs Colts-0.7*+1.0+0.7
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.3*-3.1+0.3
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.3*-0.2-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.3*+2.5-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.3*-0.2+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills+0.2*+2.0-0.2
+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.2*-2.7+0.2
-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.2*+2.7-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ravens finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
27-31In100132*
2626-5-0In991136
25.525-5-1In1004
2525-6-0In1000517
24.524-6-1In10013
2424-7-0In99101,675
23.523-7-1In95540
2323-8-0In97215,195
22.522-8-1In945194
2222-9-0In88903013,299*
21.521-9-1In851113263
2121-10-0100.0%72202060029,331*
20.520-10-1In6028380507
2020-11-0100.0453370131055,631*
19.519-11-199.930361321720915
1919-12-099.4193318322510093,300
18-11-2In3131231513
18.518-12-198.6927215279101,397
1818-13-093.5418249231651000136,037*
17.517-13-185.21922122022113001,991
1717-14-069.5041516132218931000175,195*
16.516-14-149.101817618231872002,430
1616-15-031.100414310192216831000198,713
15-14-247.16291224181217
15.515-15-116.711114122024158212,602
1515-16-08.80070151320221793100198,982
14-15-26.777131320202015
14.514-16-15.0050014132326188202,336
1414-17-02.4020002614222418920175,275
13-16-2Out714143621714
13.513-17-10.9102614252817711,991
1313-18-00.501000027172727164136,100*
12.512-18-10.20019203128101,465
1212-19-00.1000141329351893,604*
11.511-19-1Out015224131885
1111-20-00.00000313384555,813*
10.510-20-1Out0083260486
1010-21-0Out03257229,314*
9.59-21-1Out121286199
99-22-0Out01118813,285*
8.58-22-1Out159486
88-23-0Out04965,271
7.57-23-1Out10035
77-24-0Out1991,744
6.56-24-1Out10011
66-25-0Out199503
5.55-25-1Out1002
55-26-0Out199107
0-4Out100134*
Total:37.5%66666666666666661,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Ravens vs Redskins-1.5*-0.1+1.5
Titans vs Vikings+0.0-0.8-0.0
Chargers vs Steelers-0.1-0.4+0.1
Giants vs Chiefs-0.0+0.3+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars-0.0+0.3+0.0
Browns vs Raiders+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Broncos vs Bengals-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Texans vs Cardinals+0.0*-0.7-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.0*-0.5+0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Jets vs Falcons+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Ravens vs Saints-1.5*-0.0+1.5
Browns vs Broncos+0.1+0.0-0.1
Steelers vs Colts+0.1*-0.5-0.1
Seahawks vs Titans-0.0-0.1+0.0
Chargers vs Giants+0.0*+0.4-0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.0*-0.5+0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.0*+0.5-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
27-31100
2626-5-09911
25.525-5-1100
2525-6-01000
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-098110
23.523-7-19335
2323-8-093421
22.522-8-187651
2222-9-0771190030
21.521-9-167181113
2121-10-05022201206000
20.520-10-135262713800
2020-11-01827285700131100
19.519-11-1723289121215120
1919-12-021618151623018450100
18-11-2238312315
18.518-12-109918184501889010
1818-13-00431514991121214251000
17.517-13-110881411251516611300
1717-14-00043121152111111151041000
16.516-14-101179806414141911520
1616-15-000045903110512171611621000
15-14-2662412629666
15.515-15-101291412917211810410
1515-16-0001600100261116181611631000
14-15-2771327207137
14.514-16-1004000031020222112510
1414-17-0002000001261217191712631000
13-16-221714217217
13.513-17-11015122024219410
1313-18-000100000149162121168310
12.512-18-10014112129201120
1212-19-000001411212722112
11.511-19-102112532247
1111-20-00001413293518
10.510-20-105214034
1010-21-0002113750
9.59-21-1152173
99-22-0022077
8.58-22-111088
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1100
77-24-00397
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
5.55-25-1100
55-26-0298
0-4100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333