New England Patriots Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Panthers vs Patriots-6.0*-4.6+6.0
-0.7*-0.3+0.7
Lions vs Dolphins+1.0*+0.2-1.0
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bills vs Buccaneers-1.0*-1.8+1.0
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Jets vs Falcons-0.9*+1.0+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Texans vs Cardinals-0.3*+2.2+0.3
-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.3*+0.1-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.3*+0.5-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Colts vs Packers-0.3*-0.4+0.3
Ravens vs Redskins-0.2*-1.8+0.2
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.2*-0.8+0.2
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Patriots vs Dolphins+8.1*-4.6-8.1
+0.9*-0.3-0.9
Eagles vs Jets+0.9*+0.6-0.9
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Cardinals vs Bills+0.9*+0.9-0.9
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Chargers vs Giants-0.2*-1.4+0.3
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.2*+0.4-0.2
Ravens vs Saints-0.2*+2.4+0.2
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.2*-2.0-0.2
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.2*-0.3+0.2
Chiefs vs Packers-0.2*-2.0+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Patriots finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100254*
2525-6-0In1000473
24.524-6-1In1008
2424-7-0In99101,716
23.523-7-1In97333
2323-8-0In963104,988*
22.522-8-1In95588
2222-9-0In88902013,323
21.521-9-1In821314233
2121-10-0In7220206029,304*
20.520-10-1In59293090517
2020-11-0100.0%4533701310055,899
19-10-2In83176
19.519-11-199.832381111620887
1919-12-099.31934183215100093,570
18-11-2In2020605
18.518-12-198.09292242410201,421
1818-13-093.741824923165100136,223
17-12-290.01010101040101010
17.517-13-185.91102014192111311,961
1717-14-069.704151613221893100174,901
16-13-269.28884623813
16.516-14-150.501818617241682002,372
1616-15-031.000414310202216831000198,546
15-14-225.061931133116
15.515-15-115.60110141220231783102,566
1515-16-08.80070151321221793100198,311
14-15-215.0105101015155201020
14.514-16-14.1040251322241993102,454
1414-17-02.3020002614222418920175,131
13-16-2Out7431429714
13.513-17-10.91001516232818611,931
1313-18-00.50100027172727154136,670
12-17-2Out333317176
12.512-18-10.402820332691,464
1212-19-00.1000141328351993,841
11-18-2Out3344229
11.511-19-1Out15253930855
1111-20-00.0000313384555,867*
10.510-20-1Out63461454
1010-21-00.00004257229,343
9-20-2Out50504
9.59-21-1Out11683230
99-22-0Out01118813,310
8-21-2Out1003
8.58-22-1Out49692
88-23-0Out04965,243
7.57-23-1Out59520
77-24-0Out01991,736
0-6.5Out100763*
Total:37.5%66666666666666661,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Panthers vs Patriots+1.5+0.6-1.5
Lions vs Dolphins-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Jets vs Falcons+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Bears vs Jaguars-0.0+0.1+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.0*-0.7-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Titans vs Vikings+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs-0.0*-0.4+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Patriots vs Dolphins-1.8*+0.7+1.8
Cardinals vs Bills-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Eagles vs Jets-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Chargers vs Giants+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Ravens vs Saints+0.0*-0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-01000
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-097110
23.523-7-1973
2323-8-0924310
22.522-8-188831
2222-9-0781190020
21.521-9-163191314
2121-10-0502220120600
20.520-10-1352427130800
2020-11-01827285700131100
19-10-2503317
19.519-11-1824308110116120
1919-12-0216181516230184501000
18-11-220204020
18.518-12-108920193416710020
1818-13-0043151499112121425100
17-12-210101010401010
17.517-13-110108121215141751131
1717-14-0004312115211111115104100
16-13-28883115238
16.516-14-101189863141418125100
1616-15-000044903110512171511621000
15-14-2619136251913
15.515-15-1012814039172318104100
1515-16-000016001002611161816126310000
14-15-255510102525105
14.514-16-1004001410182420115100
1414-17-0002000001261217191712731000
13-16-271414367147
13.513-17-110151223242010310
1313-18-0001000149162121168310
12-17-217333317
12.512-18-10014112126231030
1212-19-000001411212723112
11-18-211113344
11.511-19-1002112532227
1111-20-00001413293518
10.510-20-112174436
1010-21-00002123749
9-20-25050
9.59-21-162470
99-22-0022077
8-21-2100
8.58-22-111386
88-23-00892
7.57-23-11090
77-24-00298
0-6.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333