SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Bears vs Jaguars	-5.9*+3.2+5.9		-0.7*+0.1+0.7
Colts vs Packers	-1.0*+0.2+1.0		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Titans vs Vikings	-0.9*+1.4+0.9		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Texans vs Cardinals	-0.9*-1.2+0.9		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Giants vs Chiefs	+0.3*+0.1-0.3		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins	-0.3*+1.9+0.3		-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	+0.2*-0.5-0.2		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots	+0.2*-1.7-0.2		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Jets vs Falcons	-0.2*-1.0+0.2		-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers	-0.2*-0.3+0.2		-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cowboys vs Jaguars	-5.9*-3.3+5.9		-0.7*-0.3+0.7
Seahawks vs Titans	+1.0*+0.8-1.0		+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers	-0.9*+2.4+0.9		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Steelers vs Colts	+0.7*-1.2-0.7		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Eagles vs Jets	+0.3*+0.2-0.3
Ravens vs Saints	-0.3*-2.6+0.3		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills	+0.2*-0.7-0.2		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers	-0.2*+0.3+0.2
Chargers vs Giants	-0.2*-2.6+0.2		-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jaguars finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

25.5	-31						In		100																241	*
25		25	-	6	-	0	In		99	1															486
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	In		100																10
24		24	-	7	-	0	In		99	1			0												1,701
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	In		91	6			3												33
23		23	-	8	-	0	In		96	3	0		1												5,192	*
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	In		95	5															96
22		22	-	9	-	0	In		89	9	0		2	0											13,383	*
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	In		80	14	2		4												247
21		21	-	10	-	0	100.0	%	72	20	2	0	6	0	0										29,318	*
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	In		62	26	3		9	0											479
20		20	-	11	-	0	100.0		45	33	7	0	13	1	0										55,866	*
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	99.8		35	38	10	0	14	2	0										908
19		19	-	12	-	0	99.3		19	34	18	3	22	5	1	0	0								93,050	*
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	98.0		10	27	22	5	25	9	2	0	0								1,409
18		18	-	13	-	0	93.6		4	18	24	9	23	16	5	1	0	0							136,083
		17	-	12	-	2	90.0		10	10	30		30	10	10										10
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1	84.9		1	10	20	12	21	21	11	3	0								1,970
17		17	-	14	-	0	69.4		0	4	15	16	13	22	18	9	3	1	0	0					175,747
		16	-	13	-	2	60.0				10	10	15	25	35	5									20
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1	49.2			1	8	15	6	19	24	17	7	2	0						2,312
16		16	-	15	-	0	31.1		0	0	4	14	3	10	19	22	16	8	3	1	0	0			198,365
		15	-	14	-	2	44.4				11	33			22	22		11							9
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1	17.6				1	11	1	4	12	20	22	17	9	2	0				2,571
15		15	-	16	-	0	8.8			0	1	7	0	1	5	13	21	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	198,880
		14	-	15	-	2	10.5					5		5		11	26	21	16	16					19
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1	4.8				0	4		0	1	4	12	22	24	20	9	2	0		2,314
14		14	-	17	-	0	2.3				0	2	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	2	0	175,455
		13	-	16	-	2	Out											8	25	17	42	8			12
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1	1.0					1				0	1	5	12	26	27	18	7	1	1,959
13		13	-	18	-	0	0.5				0	1			0	0	0	2	7	17	27	27	15	4	136,473
		12	-	17	-	2	Out													18	27	27	27		11
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1	0.1					0						0	2	8	22	33	26	9	1,397
12		12	-	19	-	0	0.1					0				0	0	0	1	4	13	28	35	19	93,061
		11	-	18	-	2	Out															80		20	5
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1	Out												0	1	6	21	42	30	898
11		11	-	20	-	0	0.0					0						0	0	0	3	13	38	46	56,106	*
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1	Out														1	8	30	61	492
10		10	-	21	-	0	Out													0	0	3	25	72	29,127	*
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1	Out															2	22	76	236
9		9	-	22	-	0	Out														0	1	11	88	13,323	*
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1	Out																12	88	97
8		8	-	23	-	0	Out															0	4	96	5,160
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1	Out																3	97	37
7		7	-	24	-	0	Out																1	99	1,764
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1	Out																	100	15
6		6	-	25	-	0	Out																0	100	499
0	-5.5						Out																	100	258	*

Total:							37.5	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	1,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bears vs Jaguars	+1.5*-0.2-1.5
Colts vs Packers	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Bills vs Buccaneers	+0.0+0.2-0.0
Titans vs Vikings	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Texans vs Cardinals	+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Ravens vs Redskins	+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs	-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins	-0.0*-0.4+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cowboys vs Jaguars	+1.5*+0.6-1.5
Chargers vs Giants	+0.0+0.3-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans	-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Steelers vs Colts	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Saints	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

25.5	-31						100
25		25	-	6	-	0	99	0	1
24	.5	24	-	6	-	1	100
24		24	-	7	-	0	98	1	1						0
23	.5	23	-	7	-	1	88	3	6						3
23		23	-	8	-	0	92	4	3		0				1
22	.5	22	-	8	-	1	88	7	5
22		22	-	9	-	0	78	11	9	0	0				2		0
21	.5	21	-	9	-	1	64	16	14	0	2				4
21		21	-	10	-	0	50	22	19	1	2		0		6	0	0		0
20	.5	20	-	10	-	1	34	28	24	2	3				8	0	0
20		20	-	11	-	0	18	27	29	5	7	0	0		12	1	1	0	0
19	.5	19	-	11	-	1	7	28	30	8	10	0	0		13	1	2		0
19		19	-	12	-	0	2	16	18	15	16	2	3	0	18	4	5	0	1	0	0
18	.5	18	-	12	-	1	0	9	8	19	19	4	5		17	7	9	0	2	0	0
18		18	-	13	-	0	0	4	3	15	14	9	9	1	12	12	14	2	5	1	0	0
		17	-	12	-	2		10		10	10	20			10	20	10		10
17	.5	17	-	13	-	1		1	0	10	7	13	11	1	6	15	17	4	11	3	1
17		17	-	14	-	0		0	0	4	3	12	11	5	2	11	11	11	15	10	4	1	0	0	0
		16	-	13	-	2						10	5	5	5	10	25		25	15
16	.5	16	-	14	-	1				1	0	7	8	8	0	6	4	15	14	18	12	5	1
16		16	-	15	-	0		0		0	0	4	4	9	0	3	1	10	5	12	16	16	11	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
		15	-	14	-	2						11		33					11	11		22	11
15	.5	15	-	15	-	1						1	2	9		1		4	0	3	9	16	23	18	9	3	1	0
15		15	-	16	-	0				0		1	1	6		0	0	1	0	0	2	6	11	16	18	16	11	6	3	1	0	0	0
		14	-	15	-	2								5				5				5	16	16	21	16	5	11
14	.5	14	-	16	-	1						0	0	4				0				0	1	4	10	19	24	19	12	5	1	0
14		14	-	17	-	0						0	0	2		0		0		0	0	0	0	1	3	6	12	17	19	17	12	6	3	1	0	0	0
		13	-	16	-	2																			8			33	42		17
13	.5	13	-	17	-	1								1											0	1	1	5	11	20	26	19	11	5	1	0
13		13	-	18	-	0						0	0	1											0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	21	16	8	3	1	0
		12	-	17	-	2																							18		18	27	27			9
12	.5	12	-	18	-	1								0															0	1	4	12	20	28	21	10	3	0
12		12	-	19	-	0								0													0		0	0	1	4	11	21	27	23	11	2
		11	-	18	-	2																											20	40		40
11	.5	11	-	19	-	1																									0	1	2	10	25	33	23	6
11		11	-	20	-	0								0																0	0	0	1	4	13	29	35	18
10	.5	10	-	20	-	1																												1	4	19	39	37
10		10	-	21	-	0																											0	0	2	11	38	49
9	.5	9	-	21	-	1																												0		8	30	62
9		9	-	22	-	0																													0	2	20	78
8	.5	8	-	22	-	1																														1	18	81
8		8	-	23	-	0																														0	7	92
7	.5	7	-	23	-	1																															3	97
7		7	-	24	-	0																															3	97
6	.5	6	-	24	-	1																																100
6		6	-	25	-	0																															1	99
0	-5.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3