Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Lions vs Dolphins-5.9*-0.6+5.9
-0.7*+0.0+0.7
Jets vs Falcons-1.0*-3.4+1.0
-0.1*-0.4+0.1
Panthers vs Patriots+0.9*+0.2-0.9
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.9*-1.2+0.9
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Titans vs Vikings-0.3*-0.1+0.3
Colts vs Packers-0.3*+1.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.2*-0.7-0.2
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs+0.2*+2.1-0.2
Ravens vs Redskins-0.2*+0.1+0.2
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.2*-0.1+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Patriots vs Dolphins-8.1*-0.6+8.1
-0.9*-0.1+0.9
Cardinals vs Bills+0.9*+0.9-0.9
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Jets+0.9*+1.7-0.9
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.3*+2.3+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.3*+1.6+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.3*-4.0-0.3
+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Ravens vs Saints-0.2*-1.4+0.2
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.2*-0.8+0.2
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.2*+3.4-0.2
+0.0*+0.4-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dolphins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
24.5-31In100791*
2424-7-0In98201,663
23.523-7-1In96426
2323-8-0In96315,203*
22.522-8-1In96499
2222-9-0In89902013,321*
21.521-9-1In8785257
2121-10-0100.0%71212060029,415*
20.520-10-1In6324490480
2020-11-0100.0453370131056,047*
19.519-11-199.931361111830862
1919-12-099.3193418321510093,168
18-11-2In5025254
18.518-12-198.41028245247201,349
1818-13-093.741824923165100136,223
17-12-288.91133221111119
17.517-13-185.8192113192211302,027
1717-14-069.504151613221893100175,306
16-13-277.82211222211119
16.516-14-149.81815719231772102,381
1616-15-031.000414310192216831000198,365
15-14-225.0817252517812
15.515-15-116.1111041222221882002,549
1515-16-08.70170151320221793100197,919
14-15-212.513625196131916
14.514-16-14.704015132227188202,320
1414-17-02.2020002614222418920175,863
13-16-2Out883123151513
13.513-17-11.2102514232820612,095
1313-18-00.50000027172727154136,992
12-17-2Out7212936714
12.512-18-10.10002821332691,473
1212-19-00.1000141329351993,163
11-18-2Out50502
11.511-19-10.20015194133878
1111-20-00.0000313384555,824
10-19-2Out2550254
10.510-20-1Out143064472
1010-21-0Out003257228,978
9.59-21-1Out01782242
99-22-0Out01118813,429
8.58-22-1Out59578
88-23-0Out03965,193*
7.57-23-1Out10034
77-24-0Out01991,773
6.56-24-1Out1009
66-25-0Out0100516
0-5.5Out100238*
Total:37.5%66666666666666661,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Lions vs Dolphins+1.5*-0.1-1.5
Jets vs Falcons+0.1+0.8-0.1
Colts vs Packers+0.0-0.5-0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Titans vs Vikings+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Patriots vs Dolphins+1.8*+0.1-1.8
Chargers vs Giants+0.0+0.4-0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Cardinals vs Bills-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Chiefs vs Packers+0.0+0.1-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.0*+0.7+0.0
Ravens vs Saints+0.0*+0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
24.5-31100
2424-7-096220
23.523-7-1964
2323-8-092431
22.522-8-19154
2222-9-07711900200
21.521-9-1671985
2121-10-04922201206000
20.520-10-13429240490
2020-11-0182728570013110
19.519-11-1724278110118130
1919-12-021618151623018450100
18-11-225252525
18.518-12-101091920451777020
1818-13-0043151499111121425100
17-12-2113322111111
17.517-13-11098141225141751131
1717-14-0004312115211111115104100
16-13-22211111111111111
16.516-14-11187806315141911510
1616-15-000045903110612171511621000
15-14-281784225
15.515-15-11290402820221810310
1515-16-00116001002611161816126310000
14-15-21361363113136
14.514-16-1004001410192320125100
1414-17-0002000001261217201712631000
13-16-2231538158
13.513-17-1010151218252111410
1313-18-0000000149162121168310
12-17-2142929217
12.512-18-10014112129201020
1212-19-000001411212722112
11-18-25050
11.511-19-100372334266
1111-20-00001414293518
10-19-25050
10.510-20-1003184336
1010-21-0002113750
9.59-21-123068
99-22-0022177
8.58-22-111386
88-23-000892
7.57-23-1694
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-0199
5.55-25-1100
55-26-0199
0-4100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333