SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0
Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Giants vs Chiefs-6.0*+1.2+6.0
-0.7*+0.0+0.7
Browns vs Raiders+0.7*+3.2-0.7
+0.1+0.3-0.1
Broncos vs Bengals-0.7*+0.8+0.7
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Chargers vs Steelers-0.7*-2.1+0.7
-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Colts vs Packers-0.3*-0.1+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.3*+1.3-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Redskins-0.3*-1.2+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots+0.3*+0.8-0.3
Lions vs Dolphins+0.2*-2.1-0.2
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.2*+2.6+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.2*+3.8+0.2
-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Jets vs Falcons-0.2*-2.6+0.2
-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.2*-4.3+0.2
-0.0*-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Chiefs vs Packers+5.9*+1.7-5.9
+0.7*+0.1-0.7
Chargers vs Giants-0.9*-1.2+0.9
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Browns vs Broncos+0.7*+0.0-0.7
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills+0.4*-1.2-0.4
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Ravens vs Saints-0.3*-0.6+0.3
Seahawks vs Titans+0.3*-2.8-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.3*+0.0+0.3
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.2*-0.3-0.2
+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chiefs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100257*
2525-6-0In1000501
24.524-6-1In10011
2424-7-0In98101,715*
23.523-7-1In97333
2323-8-0In96315,239
22.522-8-1In95312117
2222-9-0In889003013,485
21.521-9-1In831512238
2121-10-0100.0%72202060029,101
20.520-10-1In57303090504
2020-11-0100.0463370131056,740
19-10-2In4329297
19.519-11-199.930381011920902
1919-12-099.3193318322510093,185
18-11-2In136313138
18.518-12-198.610292252310101,460
1818-13-093.841824923165100135,821
17-12-2In83317825812
17.517-13-185.51922131921103101,989
1717-14-069.5041516132218931000175,380
16-13-273.7115262111111619
16.516-14-150.51817619231682002,285
1616-15-031.200414310192216831000198,551
15-14-233.311223322119
15.515-15-115.1110141223241672002,574
1515-16-08.70070151320221793100198,647
14-15-210.010102015201055520
14.514-16-15.150151321241893102,434
1414-17-02.3020002614222418920175,193
13-16-2Out1361338191316
13.513-17-11.52001515242817711,941
1313-18-00.5000027172727154136,783
12-17-2Out101520253020
12.512-18-10.1002822332691,379
1212-19-00.10000141328351992,946
11-18-2Out141443297
11.511-19-1Out17204132865
1111-20-00.00000313384555,889*
10.510-20-1Out072964484
1010-21-0Out003257229,013*
9.59-21-1Out11484244
99-22-0Out01118913,390*
8.58-22-1Out892102
88-23-0Out04965,113
7.57-23-1Out39734
77-24-0Out1991,711
6.56-24-1Out1005
66-25-0Out0100482
0-5.5Out100243*
Total:37.5%66666666666666661,437,104

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Giants vs Chiefs+1.5*-0.2-1.5
Browns vs Raiders-0.1-0.5+0.1
Broncos vs Bengals+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Chargers vs Steelers+0.1*+0.6-0.1
Ravens vs Redskins+0.0+0.1-0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Bears vs Jaguars-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Lions vs Dolphins-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Titans vs Vikings+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.0*-0.7-0.0
Jets vs Falcons+0.0*+0.6-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Chiefs vs Packers-1.5-0.2+1.5
Chargers vs Giants+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Browns vs Broncos-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Cardinals vs Bills-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
26.5-31100
2626-5-0991
25.525-5-1100
2525-6-09910
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-098110
23.523-7-19163
2323-8-092431
22.522-8-1896312
2222-9-07811900030
21.521-9-168151512
2121-10-05022201206000
20.520-10-132252823090
2020-11-0182728570013010
19.519-11-18222810100118120
1919-12-021618151623018450100
18.518-12-1010821175516710010
1818-13-0043151499111121425100
17-12-28825888258
17.517-13-110881411251416510410
1717-14-00043121152111111151041000
16-13-2115215516551116
16.516-14-11089806415141712510
1616-15-000045903110512171611621000
15.515-15-11281403918241710310
1515-16-00001601002611161816126310000
14-15-255510201030555
14.514-16-10500141018242112510
1414-17-0002000001261217191812631000
13-16-2666251325136
13.513-17-1200151219262010310
1313-18-000000149162121168310
12-17-25520355510105
12.512-18-10014122226211030
1212-19-000001411212722112
11.511-19-1003112331238
1111-20-00001413293518
10.510-20-103194235
1010-21-00002113750
9.59-21-1042571
99-22-0022077
8.58-22-11288
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1694
77-24-0397
6.56-24-1100
66-25-00100
5.55-25-1100
55-26-0298
0-4.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:04 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)